Thanks for sharing your knowledge and experience here, Glenn. Like others I've found it very informative.

I just found a copy of Hurst here locally and placed the order. Looking forward to getting into it when I can. But that book seems like it requires more than just a casual glance. And I think that's probably true of the concepts and techniques you're presenting here in this thread as well. It's not quite as simple as drawing a couple of cycles and moving averages on various time-frame charts and then immediately knowing exactly what to do.

The strategies that I currently employ still demand most of my day-to-day attention, so it will take me a while to absorb all of this. I'll be studying cycle analysis alongside my own work as well as another side project (Michael Oliver's Momentum Structural Analysis).

That said, cycle analysis should fit in very nicely with at least some of the work I'm doing already, so I look forward to diving deeper. I should mention, though, that I'm the kind of student who tries to answer his own questions rather than asking the teacher - I'll continue to attend your lectures, but will sit quietly in the back, taking plenty of notes before retiring to the study lab.

"I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand"

Schnook 

.... But that book seems like it requires more than just a casual glance. And I think that's probably true of the concepts and techniques you're presenting here in this thread as well. It's not quite as simple as drawing a couple of cycles and moving averages on various time-frame charts and then immediately knowing exactly what to do.

Good to hear from you Schnook.

We're talking about pulling money out of the air. Possibly well into the 6 figures annually. How would a casual glance at anything equip someone with the knowledge necessary to make that happen?

To put it in a real world context, in order to make that kind of money as a medical doctor you need to go to school for 12+ years, spend possibly $1,000,000 on your education and living expenses, carry that debt on your back for another 15 or 20 years, and then maybe you might make $250,000 per year.

Or, apparently one can watch a few dozen trading videos on YouTube and badda bing, badda boom, life is good.

Unfortunately that doesn't seem to work in the universe I'm familiar with. But then again I could be wrong.

About Hurst.

Several observation that might make his work easier to digest.

The guy is all about physics and the math behind it. He writes as though he is presenting a research paper to his peers at an international scientific forum.



The underlining was added during my third read, trying to ferret out the essence of his message. If you approach the text with the realization it is written in "science speak" and not that the concepts are beyond our understanding, you'll be able to hang in there. The pix above is an example of a very complicated explanation of a very simple concept.

Much of the math presented is his "scientific paper" justification for his theories and you really don't need to dwell on that portion of the book. There is enough elsewhere that is accessible if you take the time to absorb the information.

For example, the below text will be familiar to many with experience with trendlines, channels and envelopes and Hurst simple folds these technicals into his theory of cyclical price movement.



Comments have been made about the unusual appearance of my charts. All of my indicators are the result of years of effort to find a way to visualize his theories. The most obvious are the S/R bands which reflect his thoughts on channels, envelops, and displaced half-span moving averages. The inputs of many of the standard indicators like the Stochastic in the last 15 Sec trading chart are half-span durations.



Notice on the upside of this 60 Min Cycle swing that price found support on the Yellow horizontals. The pivot of the 15 Min time frame. The 15 Min Cycle has a Minor/Component Cycle relationship to the Dominant 60 Min Cycle. Read from the second underlined bullet point in the above text grab where Hurst discussed downtrend lines. Replace "downtrend" with "uptrend" and "lows" with "highs" then look the trend lines drawn under the higher rotation lows of the Stochastic. Look at where this trade was exited. Without J.M Hurst I would never have found this.

It takes time, it takes effort and it may not be for every one. But as BobWest has mentioned, there is usually something to be found in any approach that could have take away value.

The Multi-Year Cycle is the Highest Time Frame Cycle I pay attention to. The rotation of this Cycle determines how its Component Cycle... the Multi-Month will behave. Will it Trend Higher or Lower. On this chart the @ 6 bar rotation of the MM can be clearly seen as price lifted up out of the two white circled lows on the bottom left. Out of the second low and after the 1st MM rotation, price went up two bars and ran into resistance and on the 4th bar pushed higher and then made a MM low 8 bars later. A total of 12 bars since that 1st higher MM Low. Intervals between Highs and between Lows are referred as the "average duration". If there is one shorter than normal it will soon be followed by one longer than normal to return the average back to its historical norm. In this case 6 bars. ( 4+8 ) = 12 / 2 = 6.

Compare the three circled lows.

A long bar down which ended with a reversal tail after a test of the bottom edge of the S/R Band. Each was followed by a higher low and in the first two lows, price pushed above and held above the hash representing the Pivot from the prior month's ( H+L+C )/3. On this current test of the bottom edge and at the start of this week, price is testing its Monthly Pivot at 3873.25. How this test is resolved will have consequences that spills down thru the behavior of the Lower Time Frame Cycles.

The average duration of the Multi-Year Cycle is 42.4 Months and price is now entering that sweet spot. This does not mean the low is in and a low cannot be confirmed until price deals with the down sloping black ma who's direction represents the Trend of the MM Cycle. If the MY Cycle is going to push up out of a Low it will change the behavior of the MM Cycle... its Trend will change from Lower to Higher and the black Minor Cycle Ma representing that Trend will turn Up. How does it do that? Price will have to get above it in order for it to turn. This behavior gives you two useful pieces of intel. A way to find your place in this story and a means of anticipating where price is going to go. Notice on the two earlier lows where that second bar closed... right on the black ma. Can this Month's bar push up some 250 points to test the black Minor Cycle ma? Of course it can. Will it? Keep your eye on how price deals with the Monthly Pivot.

glennts 

....Can this Month's bar push up some 250 points to test the black Minor Cycle ma? Of course it can. Will it? Keep your eye on how price deals with the Monthly Pivot.

The White 24 Hr ma represents the trend of the Minor/Component Cycle inside the rotation of the Dominant Multi-Day Cycle.

In an earlier post the High was expected to be found in the area of 3907.00

The Multi-Day Cycle High is in, developing over a period of 4 bars as is charactristic, and has rolled over, changing the trend of the 24 Hr Cycle.

On the backside of the Multi-Day Cycle rotation, the Minor/Component Cycle is expected to trend lower.... a lower closing 1440 Min bar... a bar that makes its High early in its life... a left translated bar.

Inside the 24 Hr Cycle rotation is the Minor/Component Session Cycle of @ 6 Hrs. Sienna marks all items related to the Session Cycle Time Frame. In a left translated 24 Hr Cycle it is not uncommon for the 24 Hr Cycle High to be found in the 1st Session Cycle. This current Session Cycle is looking for its Low and how price bounces out of that Low will tell us if the High put in with the 5:30 candle is also the 24 Hr Cycle High or, should price take out that High it will likely push up in to the the Middle Band area at @ 3893. Finding the 24 Hr High in the 1st SC points to strong selling with lower prices ahead. Finding the High in the 2nd SC is less bearish suggesting the presence of buyers willing to absorb the selling. How this resolves will provide insight into the larger Monthly Pivot story discussed earlier.

glennts 

Finding the 24 Hr High in the 1st SC points to strong selling with lower prices ahead. Finding the High in the 2nd SC is less bearish suggesting the presence of buyers willing to absorb the selling. How this resolves will provide insight into the larger Monthly Pivot story discussed earlier.

On the backside of the MD Cycle there will be resistance from the 24 Hr Time Frame.

At the NY Open price tested the Monthly Pivot, found buyers and pushed higher to test 24 Hr resistance in the form of the 24 Hr Globex Pivot resulting in a strong rejection lower.

On the MD backside a left translated 24 Hr cycle is expected.

On the 24 Hr backside a left translated Session Cycle is expected.

This push up out of the Open has been marked as the High of the 2nd SC of the 24 Hr rotation.

Earlier in a discussion about Pivots it was mentioned that the tendency of a new bar is to push towards its pivot and test it for Support or Resistance. 3839.5 is the Pivot of this new Weekly bar.

glennts 

Earlier in a discussion about Pivots it was mentioned that the tendency of a new bar is to push towards its pivot and test it for Support or Resistance. 3839.5 is the Pivot of this new Weekly bar.

Operator error.

I get the Weekly Pivot numbers off the Weekly candles at the Globex Open on Sunday, reading the value on the side bar. I did not notice this week's Pivot had yet to print and grabbed the value for the prior week and used that in the reference above.

So, the charts below show the error made and the updated 360 Min chart shows price testing this weeks Pivot as expected as well as the Multi-Day ma. This does not necessarily change the analysis but it may alter the timing of the next 24 Hr Cycle Low.

I apologize.

It is getting ugly.

About volatility.

By now I hope that those who have followed the thread have a feeling for the Dominant / Minor Cycle relationships. That as the Dominant Cycle rotates up out of its Low, the buyers on that time frame are providing support for the Minor Cycle corrections that occur, they absorb the selling on those smaller time frames resulting the Minor Cycles putting in Higher Lows. On the backside of the Dominant Cycle Rotation the opposite occurs. The sellers on the Dominant Cycle time frame are pushing price lower, creating resistance to any attempt by the Minor Cycle to push higher, resulting in Lower Minor Cycle Highs. It can be said that the rotation of the Dominant Cycle, its pushing higher or pushing lower, serves as an underlying current that gives some order to the Minor Cycle behavior. When the Dominant Cycle turns, for a period of time that increases with the size of the Dominant Cycle, it is neither pushing up or down. It is not imposing order on the behavior of the Minor Cycle and the result is the Whipsawing of the Minor Cycle. An increase in volatility. This typically occurs when the ma that represents the Trend of the Minor Cycle is moving sideways, revealing that although the Dominant Cycle is attempting to turn and correct in price, those driving the trend are refusing the correction.



This is a bare bones 60 Min ES chart with a 6 period smoothed ma. The ma represents the trend of the @ 6 hr Minor Cycle that is the Component of the Dominant 24 Hr Cycle. ( The Dominant/Minor Cycle reference is not specific to any time frame but describes any time frame rotation that has a lower time frame rotation inside it. ie: 24 Hr/6 Hr, MD/24Hr, MW/MD.) The bending of the Sienna ma shows the rotation of the 24 Hr Cycle. Compare the behavior of the bars inside the yellow boxes to those outside. Outside the boxes the bars respect the presence of the 6 Hr ma as either support or resistance. Inside the boxes they whipsaw. Notice this is occurring more frequently.

The chart shows whipsawing occurring inside the 24 Hr rotation and is caused by opposing sides fighting over control of the market on an intraday basis. In the scale of market participants, small time players.

What happens when the big guys, those entities with $100's of millions to put to work on the Multi-Year swings start to contest control? You are going to see whipsawing on the Higher Time Frames. A week or so ago I commented on an unexpected Higher Multi-Week Low, one that occurred considerable earlier than the normal rotation.

Charts and comments have been posted recently showing Monthly bars with speculation on the status of the Multi-Year Cycle. If it is putting in a Low...if it is in a turn... it will for a period of time not be pushing down or pushing up. And as the Cycle Dominant to the Multi-Month Cycle it will not be asserting its influence on the behavior of that Minor / Component Cycle. It will whipsaw and unexpected things will occur.

On the left, price is testing the Middle of the MD S/R Band as well as the Higher Time Frame Multi-Week ma. Higher Time Frame areas of Support/Resistance turn Lower Time Frame Cycles. This is the "look" of a MDL being developed. A Higher 24 Hr Low will confirm the MD Cycle has turned up out of its Low. The Dominant Cycle changing the trend of the Minor Cycle.

On the right, if a 24 Hr Low and a MDL is in place then 3820.75 will not break. A Higher SC Low (@6 Hrs) will confirm the 24 Hr Low has turned up. The Dominant Cycle changing the trend of the Minor Cycle.

Out of a 24 Hr Low price will break above and turn the 6 Hr smoothed ma.

Out of a Multi-Day low price will break above 24 Hr resistance and turn the 24 Hr smooth ma. This area of resistance is currently 3853.75 - 3866.25.

Overnight price broke the Weekly pivot. Break Support then turn at some point and test it for Resistance is typical behavior. Wkly Pivot = 3855.75. 24 Hr Globes Pivot = 3866.25.

Good luck, Be careful.

glennts 

Out of a 24 Hr Low price will break above and turn the 6 Hr smoothed ma.

The broad swath angling down from the upper left is the area that represents for me the Resistance (its Red) of the 6 Hr ( Session Cycle) Time Frame. It took three attempts for price to chew its way thru this area of supply. The second attempt made further progress to the upside before being shoved back down. If you think of this as an indication of the weakening of the selling momentum, and the double bottom as a demonstration of the buyers resolve to break the back of this decline, and fold this observation into the expectation of a 24 Hr Low being made, you might have a reason to get long.

Or, as Henry V said before the walls of Harfleur:

"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;"

"Follow your spirit, and upon this charge
Cry 'God for Harry, England, and Saint George!"



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