My signals are fairly mixed with a slight edge to bulls. (Since we opened slightly gap down, the supposedly strong bullish bias reduced to some extent). Yet, I decided to trade from the long side today.

Pilot long @ 3900

Scaled in to my downer at 3888. I used a hard stop for this one @ LOD @ 78 since the risk of trend down is quite high with high RV and rumblings in banking sector.

I got lucky. My expected reversal day is playing out well so far.

Scaled out @ 3908 for 20+ pts.

I'm unsure about my other 1/2 position. Dilemma is between End of Day order vs Stop @ LOD 3878 vs ONH @ 3940. Still have some time to decide.

Targets are way more important than entries.

I had a profitable trade in MES and a breakeven day in SPY. The difference was my target selection.

My thesis of reversal to test the NFP high 3942 worked out really well. I was conservative and banked my profits in MES @ 3920. For my SPY, I was perhaps too greedy to place it @ 3940. Price was rejected strongly @ 35 i.e 200 DMA and eventually stopped me out for a small loss.

Lessons.

1. I should use logic for targets. In this case, 200 DMA should have been my target rather than Overnight high.

2. In counter-trend trades, I should be quick to take profits as it can evoporate quickly.

Weekly summary

Though I had a profitable week I'm somewhat disappointed with my lack of success in scaling up the size.

My goal is to risk (and gain) 1000 dollars, maximum, per day but with my position sizing it's only 500 so far.

In terms of ticks/points, I have to make 200 points for 1k profit. Since ATR is usually 40 pts, I have to trade atleast 5 to 6 MES contracts but my current max is 3 and I often trade only 2. hmmm.

I have eliminated the risk of ruining a while ago. So, it's time to grow up

Very satisfying day.

My signals were bullish yesterday but I couldn't trade early on due to personal reasons.

When I finally had a chance to look at the chart after EU close, I realised the magnitude of opportunity I missed. i.e 2% up move.

Instead of chasing the bull move, I felt that the daily ATR was already reached and the odds were favorable for a pullback. Hence shorted the VAH with profit target @ VAL. It's a 4:1 risk reward trade but I had to wait for more than an hour to get filled. It felt like I was a predator hiding in the bush and waiting for the best moment to pounce. In the end, it worked out perfectly.

My beloved 'odd ball' day yesterday. We closed lower yesterday compared to Friday but RTH close was higher than open.

This set-up (which has a robust data point of >400) has a strong bearish follow up. This association is pretty consistent regardless of the market environment and that's uncommon in my data world.

The only caveat is that a gap up open is more likely tomorrow. Hence, I couldn't initiate my short yet and have to wait for RTH to open.

I'm in wait and watch mode.

Data suggests the RTH price opening above Y-H is bullish. I need to see some weakness if I'm shorting.

Today, I did something amazing in my trading career.

I traded the signal which completely contradicted my gut feelings, macro environment and even my bigger picture data analysis.

As I said in my previous posts, today has bearish follow up, historically speaking. The only exception was opening above Yesterday's high. I thought it was highly unlikely and salivating at the opportunity to short. However, when RTH opening price was above Y-H, it dramatically changed the odds and suddenly all my signals were screaming 'BUY'.

I still wanted to short but within seconds after posting my last entry about being in 'wait and watch mode', I told to myself 'You idiot, it's a buy signal and you can always reverse to short if the signal fails'. Immediately bought 50 SPY. Just covered it after 2% move, which I thought was good range. Will likely buy the dips later.

Though it was a paltry 100 bucks, the emotional effect was immense. I guess, this is how one slowly develops confidence in their system over a period of few years.

Interestingly, this is the same day when I'm having a discussion with @Salao above going long on big gap up days. It surely felt 'wrong' to buy today but often they are the least risky and almost sure win days

Interesting day.

Despite by strong bearish bias, I was Long from open and covered it right @ the high of the day.

Then I re-entered during PB which was much depper than expected. I scaled in to my downer, but the ES went down harder. Though my MAE and paper loss was growing, I was determined to hold it till the end of the day.

Like a ball being pushed into a bucket of water, ES bounced back and I was green again. Lucky again.

My signals are mostly neutral with touch of bullishness, if we open below Y-L.

Huge range and already 2% down. Again the same dilemma as yesterday but I'm NOT enticed to buy the lows with this faint bullish signal.

The news is quite pessimistic out there. I'm not sure whether there is more room for downside today. Options positioning indicates 3800 may be tested but perhaps later this week of OPEX.

Overall, I don't have a clear conviction or plan for today. If I must trade, I will likely short. The reason is purely fundamental and I suck at it. My theory is that equities are so far somewhat detached and possibly protected by bad news in banking sector. We had the short covering bounce to clear weak shorts and the easier path for ES is down. If Fed pauses hike cycle, which is highly unlikely, then this level may be justifiable. Otherwise, we are likely to test last year's low this spring/summer.

Short 3902. I showed surprising amount of patience and got the top of the bounce by using NYSE tick & delta. Then scaled in after seeing some weakness @ 3885.

However the chopfest that followed for the next couple of hours was simply annoying. Hence scaled out breakeven. Original short is still on.

I considered going flat and call it a day, but the RTH ATR is so far pretty narrow @ 30 points. I am expecting atleast another 10-15 points which coincides with Overnight low. Let's see.

I will most likely leave this short till the end of the day as momentum is in bear's favor. I may even add if we see new low below 75.