GFIs1 

Number crunching, odds and patterns If you look at your 'stats' and you decide on how to manage the next trade you are still in the clouds. In fact I am using stats to SEE patterns of behavior in the markets. This tracked down to weekday, IB and time - including all the imponderables of numbers, speeches etc. gives a perfect basis to TAKE a trade or to OMIT it. Best of it - I can see the start and the end of a trade as the pattern gives me a result on a given day / time / chance - and proposes the direction of the trade as well.

Thanks for your comments.

Stats is the beginning of my homework/prep for daytrading. It tells me only about the PAST i.e winner in the market by the END of the day in similar market conditions. I use that information mainly to align myself with the likely direction (long vs short), intra-day. (My weekend/overnight hold is a separate drill, by the way)

The next step is entry & exit points. Currently I'm using US RTH open and close for 1/2 size and the rest of 1/2 is decided my ichimoku type EMA crossover indicator. (I started using it only 3 months ago and hence still learning to use if effectively, especially when it's against the past stats).

Your system obviously is more granular and nuanced than my fixed approach. Though my backtesting service provider Investiquant has a more sophisticated system providing intra-day time based entries and exits, it's at a much higher cost of >4k, obviously. I may be interested if my current forward testing produces reliable results for the next couple of months. If you are aware of any other service provider, I would be interested too.

I'm aware that you use ichimoku indicators and (possibly) your own data set. I like your fuss-free approach in entries and exits and in fact it inspired me to simplify my execution. Your journal with 5000+ entries is probably the longest and most followed here. You described your methodology briefly in page 1 from 2012. Is it still the same or evolved a lot? Would be interested to learn more if you direct me to relevant section in your journal? Thanks.

The reason why I stopped holding Overnight positions

The 1st graph is my tradervue journaling data analysis of 300+ trades in 1 year till April 2022.

It's pretty clear that my intra-day performance is better than overnight holds or swing positions. Though my multi-day holds are often unplanned and due to a variety of reasons (including hope that a loser will turn into a winner), it's clear that it's not a profitable strategy for me.

Despite knowing knowing this viscerally, SEEing the data had a huge impact on my rational mind. I decided to work on my discipline and change my execution style. 'Market On close' orders made things lot easier for me to go flat by the end of the day.

In the last 2 months, my winners have become 1.7 times bigger than losers with 50% win rate whilst in the past my winning percentage was bigger @ 60% but winners = losers.

My long term goal is still swing trading and once my consistency in execution improves along with discipline, I will graduate to multi-day holds.

Until April 2022 - 300+ Trades



From May 2022 - 45+ trades

New format to my journal entries

I mentioned few entries above that I like the prop firm's model of functioning and provided reference to Adam Grime's blog article.

I'm going to implement that in my journal from now on.

I actually reviewed all my journal entries this weekend and I have to admit that it was not easy to follow my train of thoughts. My logic to enter and exit was even more difficult, particularly without any charts. Hence, I'm bringing a bit more structure to my journal.

This is how it's going to work.

I have 3 avatars.

1. Analyst - who will analyze, obviously, the past statistics and present a report 15 mins before RTH open.
2. Trader - will execute this plan. He may have some flexibility but has to be allowed in the plan.
3. Manager - will review the trades after the close and grade the trader's execution. He is not a nice boss

Instead of writing, each of them will ideally use images or screenshot to communicate. Hopefully it will make things easier to follow, both for me and for others.

Sample analyst report will look like the screenshot below.

The trader guy is currently working on a simplified chart to communicate his executions better.

Finally, the Boss will use tradervue charts to do performance review and feedback.

Gap UP but getting smaller

Is reversal day in play? or Just Chop?

Breakeven Exit. I have 1 more bullet left for short.

May consider long if we make a new High of the day.

2nd short was more successful from HOD 3928 to vwap 3915.

However, my final trade, re-short 3910 is taking heat right now.

Will likely hold till EOD though tempting to put a stop at 30.

July 27 Monday Appraisal

Good Patience for the first 30 minutes.

BreakOut trading - Logic is correct i.e ATR was low (45%) for the day despite high Relative volume and average execution.

However, Overtrading in the last 30 minutes. (SPY also traded in addition to ES. Not necessary)

My Laissez-faire SPY 'quasi-system trading' became a bit more intense yesterday, surprisingly. I usually let SPY do it's own thing till the end of the day.

Though I sometimes overtrade with MES discretionary system, it's generally deliberate as I'm quite risk averse and hesitate to take trades. My overtrading rarely goes beyond 5 round turns . However, a small compressed day with less than 50% ATR tested my discipline more yesterday. It was possibly due to the challenges in taking partial profits as my final target was quite far.

I will let my analyst do some back-testing and suggest a good scale-out methodology & location. The challenges in scaling out is that , I felt like a genius on a range day but a moron on a trend day.