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Trailer Park Capitol

  #291 (permalink)
 
michaelroth's Avatar
 michaelroth 
Gillette Wyoming
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: futures
Posts: 330 since Jun 2021
Thanks Given: 739
Thanks Received: 563

Every time I push that button is a $100.00 dollar bill.

Some other things that I want to remember-

-My trigger is price action. I need to wait for the candle to make sense.

- I need to have a better idea of what's going on in the market bigger picture before I trade. That means understanding what key levels price is likely to obey. On the chart is a bunch of lines. All of them are making sense right now, I should have had those levels marked BERFORE I started trading. This could have made for a more profitable trading day by giving me a better idea of where price could be going. When I look at this chart, I see price affected at these levels.



As for the trading today, there was some back and forth. I did manage to walk away today in profit- $105.60, I'll take it. 24% of my goal is now complete, bring the account balance up to $50,720.68. I'm still on night shifts. I'm tired and that makes it harder to trade, but it's something that I am going to have to work through if I'm going to be able to transition to trader while still working. I'm up to the challenge. Here's the stats for the day and the week so far.





Today was good in regard to risk management. I had a couple of losers that I cut because I wasn't sure where I was, so I just cut them before they could do any more damage. After getting my bearings back I was able to make up for the loss. I got out early today to protect my capital. Tomorow is another day.

I'm really liking these daily pivots on the 60-minute chart. For the past couple of days, they spit out what so far appears to me some really great levels. All of the levels on my 2-minute trigger chart are coming from these 2 charts and are either the pivots or support and resistance. I'm gauging the effectiveness of this by just how much price reacts to the levels. So far, I really like what I am seeing



The question now becomes where do we go from here? Here's what I'm thinking- if price breaks and holds below 4474, then price will continue to drop and end up exploring 4420, which was a strong level of resistance all last week before forming a range between these 2 prices. This is what I am expecting to happen based on the strength of the move lower that saw today.

I have recently come to believe that you can predict the futures- to a limited degree, but right now I am not sure how to trade that. What is working for me is trading what I see is happening, not what I think will happen. I'm going back to bed. Some of us still have real jobs, for now.

Day trading, so easy a caveman could do it.
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  #292 (permalink)
 
michaelroth's Avatar
 michaelroth 
Gillette Wyoming
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: futures
Posts: 330 since Jun 2021
Thanks Given: 739
Thanks Received: 563

Something beautiful

I was at work last night washing the plant and thinking about what was working in my trades, and what was not. I'm starting to show some profit potential and my risk management is really coming online. My reservations center around scalping, reason being I see how it's limiting my profit potential, and by not having the ability to better understand the overall context of the market I am forced to ask myself, are the trades I'm taking scalping safer, better entries, or is there a better way? In the end I decided to try for a slightly more conventional approach, and thus bumped up to the 15-minute time frame, and started looking for better, more logically consistent entries. Here's how it looks on the chart.



I really like the way these daily pivots have been respected by the price for the last three days, and the fact that they are dynamically generated. Right now, I am using the daily and 60-minute charts as my anchor and using the 15-minute chart for my entries. Today, maybe for the first time since I started looking at these markets, I had a good idea of where price was, is, where it was likely to go, and how far and long it was going to take to get there.



Today price ripped down during the London session, bounced off S3, formed a well-defined range between S2 and S3, broke through support at S2, ripped back up to the pivot, bounced, and finally settled back down to S2. The thing is I saw this in real time. I finally understood what was happening. On the daily I marked up levels of support and resistance. These levels have been in play for 2 weeks now. They too are being respected. When you add all of this together, it's like having a map.

Today I made a clumsy start of it, but I re-grouped and made the change to the 15-minute chart. and entered my third trade based off the support I saw around S3. It was a clumsy, late entry trade, but I held it based on my conviction of the support level, and a short time later closed the trade for about 10 points, thus giving me 7 points profit for the day. After a shower and right before I went to bed I put a risk-to-reward bracket up where I would have traded if I had not already tapped-out for the day. As you can see it would have been a good trade. Properly managed it could have been great, but there's always tomorrow. I had to get some sleep.

So I walked with my 7 points, bringing my account balance up to $51,072.40. I feel things are moving in the right direction. I think from here it's really just a matter of refinement and practice, which is happening as I validate whether or not I am ready to undertake a funded account evaluation. It was a good week, as of today I am 36% closer to the next step in my trading journey.


Day trading, so easy a caveman could do it.
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  #293 (permalink)
biotic
Ostrava Czech Republic
 
Posts: 23 since Mar 2018
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Hi Michael,

did not manage to read all the posts yet, but I have a somewhat similar background, so I thought I say hi

I actually started trading futures like 5 years ago and struggled to be really consistent. But I am lucky to have a few friends who are. Even though we all trade differently, we support each other and finally I think I managed to improve my trading enough to be actually consistent. Currently trading a funded account (15/15 days green in evaluation phase) and the first two days in the funded account are green as well. Will check out this thread and if I can find anything that might help you, I will let you know. I probably made every mistake a trader can make, since I have horrible softskills as a trader. But I think I am a good analyst at least.

I was a bit late to the GME party, but adding and direct registering my shares since March. I am surprised, how little the general public knows, what is really going on behind the scenes in the markets. But now, with the DOJ and SEC finally starting to make their move and Gamestop starting to uncover their plans, I think things will get interesting. If the SEC chair admits 90-95% of retail orders do not go to lit markets, it should be clear this is no conspiration theory at all.

Well, when it comes to futures it has helped me to switch from MNQ to MES for now and to really keep leverage low. Those evaluation accounts are labeled 50k or 250k, yet the cushion you have is pretty small. For a 50k usually just 2-2.5k and a 250k might only have 5-6k cushion. So the best way is to simply forget the label and treat them as if they were a brokerage account with just that small amount of money. A 50k account might offer you trading with 5-10 mini contracts, but with the current volatility even 3-5 micros might often be too much leverage.

Safe trading! And let me know in case you are not interested in feedback from someone, who just turned profitable, but only from someone, who is long term consistent.

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  #294 (permalink)
biotic
Ostrava Czech Republic
 
Posts: 23 since Mar 2018
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 38

Wow that are a lot of posts, I will collect some feedback to your posts here.

Saw you have started to use daily pivots in your trading - in my eyes a good choice. Very often the market is headed towards them and will stop there for some accumulation or distribution. Just sometimes they stop right before those DPPs and pull back a lot, ouch. Also there are half levels like R/S 1.5 or 2.5, might make sense to plot them as well.

Have added a picture of my trades today in case you are interested...

I have been using a lot of different stuff in the past, simply because I love to try out new stuff. But what currently works really well for me is very simple. I use a combination of MAs, Bollinger Bands, Swing levels and Daily Pivot Points. Actually what I am looking for are traps, so the indicators are more for cashing out and not too much about entries.

Still a lot to improve, but I just booked my 18th winning day in a row and average 200 bucks a day.

I think most important as a new trader is capital conservation. Starting with sim and once you are profitable and consistent you try to get funded with a prop company. Once you withdraw regularly, you might consider trading your own money. Unfortunately I did not follow those rules myself and really lost a lot of money by being careless at the start.

Think you have already a good understanding of the markets... as my friend says "level to level" and "thrust - re-thrust - thrust". The big players are loving to trap retail and stop them out, so that are things to look out for in the markets. That is also the reason, why cutting losses early is usually a good idea. When they close a trap, they move the price in the other direction with lightning speed. I screwed up one trade myself today where I got trapped with one micro, but since I use such small leverage I was able to mitigate their play.

If you do an evaluation, keep in mind, that a 50k account is not really a 50k account. You only have 2-2.5k to trailing, so keep leverage reasonable. You get like 5-10 minis as max leverage, so you will lose your account and reset and the company is happy.
Dont pay them - let them pay you!

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  #295 (permalink)
 
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 michaelroth 
Gillette Wyoming
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: futures
Posts: 330 since Jun 2021
Thanks Given: 739
Thanks Received: 563

What I'm looking for

4 day shifts this week makes it practically impossible to trade, so I'm using that time to evaluate the market to better understand what kind of trades I'm looking for. Today the low of the day became strong support, maybe even a supply zone. No matter what you call it, at 11 this morning price rejected this zone and made 2 tradable moves. If I were in the market today, these are the areas that I hope to have targeted, and why.



Price is so compressed right now, I'm expecting a big move today, possibly early this morning. I would be looking to go long at 4520, or short if price holds a candle below 4474. Good luck!


Day trading, so easy a caveman could do it.
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  #296 (permalink)
 
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 michaelroth 
Gillette Wyoming
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: futures
Posts: 330 since Jun 2021
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Thanks Received: 563

Massive Consolidation

Sellers once again trying to push through this zone, they haven't been able to do it for days. Will today be the day? Feeling Bearish.


Day trading, so easy a caveman could do it.
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  #297 (permalink)
 
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 michaelroth 
Gillette Wyoming
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: futures
Posts: 330 since Jun 2021
Thanks Given: 739
Thanks Received: 563

Mucking about in lower time frames

Today as I wrong in my bias, but right in the context. Here we see how the market reacted to the level that I had been watching for several days. I could have traded this. Today at work I watched the market do what it does, and as usual I was thinking about what works, what doesn't. I was thinking I'm really just playing to my fear by trying for 2-3 points here and there on time frames lower than 15 minutes, when most days the market puts in well-structured moves of 20 points or more. Those are the moves that I want. I want to take these trades and manage them well. I'm starting to really see how this market is moving, and I think with a little more practice in execution, I think I can make some really good trades.



Even as I type this the market is slowing moving higher, and could be traded, but right now I'm content to just map the market and define how I will enter and exit the market. I've made some minor adjustments to my charting. I've dropped all MA's save for the 50 and am now watching the 4,1 and 30-minute charts to gauge market sentiment. I will take my trades from either the 30-minute or the 1-hour charts, I'm using this time to see what will suit me best. Having broken a 4-day trend into this area of strong support, the market finally broke and held above 4516, which has me feeling bullish at the moment. Also, price is above the 50 and pulling up into angularity. Finally, price is trading above the pivot and looks to be on its way to test R1 at 4542. What happens after that I can only guess.


Day trading, so easy a caveman could do it.
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  #298 (permalink)
 
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 michaelroth 
Gillette Wyoming
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: futures
Posts: 330 since Jun 2021
Thanks Given: 739
Thanks Received: 563

We are definitely in an uptrend

At least that's what I tell myself as I look at this chart, analyze what I see and pull the trigger on this trade. We are by every measure in an uptrend with great market structure. The problem for me is both not being able to manage this trade and the stop on this one, but I feel good about the target, and can't be here, plus I have to know if I can get away with this and its SIM. It will be interesting to see how this trade works out. I'm defiantly feeling bullish today.


Day trading, so easy a caveman could do it.
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  #299 (permalink)
 
michaelroth's Avatar
 michaelroth 
Gillette Wyoming
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: futures
Posts: 330 since Jun 2021
Thanks Given: 739
Thanks Received: 563

One good trade

while one trade doesn't make one consistently profitable, Today's trade was a HUGE step in the right direction for me. This morning at 4:30 AM I was able to identify what the market was doing, which way it was heading, how far it was likely to go, and then pull the trigger. I'm a little uncomfortable with my stop loss placement, but because of the level of conviction I had in my trade coupled with the fact that I couldn't be there to manage it, it was a risk I was willing to take.

Today I made one trade for 19 points. the net profit trading a single contract was $958.62, bringing my account balance up to $52,2031.02. I have now completed 68% of my goal of $3000.00. It's taken me 8 days so far.



I am well pleased with the results so far. It's not just the steady rate that my profits have grown, I'm pleased to see that my win/loss ratio is moving in the right direction, my win rate is above 50, and my winners are getting bigger than my losers. These stats are showing me that I'm moving in the right direction as a trader. I'm also happy with how my charting has improved. By better understanding what the market is doing, I can make better trades. That is what happened today. Tonight, sellers have come back into the market and currently are pushing the price lower, testing the daily pivot as well as breaking today's trend higher.



Whether this is a retracement before another move higher, or the start of a new trend lower, I don't know, but I do know is the market is in a new phase. I expect there to be some back and forth tomorrow, so I am going back to watching and waiting for the market and its movers to tip their hand. I'm looking at 4569 to give me clue. If this push lower bounces off resistance that is now support, I'm bullish, but any move lower from this would have me waiting to see what kind of market structure the market will be making from this point forward.


Day trading, so easy a caveman could do it.
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  #300 (permalink)
 
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 michaelroth 
Gillette Wyoming
 
Experience: Beginner
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Broker: NinjaTrader
Trading: futures
Posts: 330 since Jun 2021
Thanks Given: 739
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The Inflation Rollercoaster

This seems to be the broader context of the current market. This in turn has created some tremendous opportunities for short term investors and speculators like me by opening up the range and putting in huge moves like those that we saw today. After consolidating around 4750'ish overnight the market took this rather dramatic U-turn and plunged to right around 4476. that 95 points! crazy! If you put aside the big numbers, I think today could have been traded. I watched it unfold on mobile TOS, and was unable to trade it, but when I got home, I could really see the levels that were in play.



When the market failed to rally at 4500 around 11:00, and then broke overnight support a second time confirmed it was really the time to get short. This move was huge! The market dropped all the way to the big level from earlier this week, 4475. The market continues to drop. I'll really be keeping my eye on 4425, but there's no reason that the market won't continue to push lower. I don't think it will drop below 4423.



Whether I trade tomorrow will depend on what happens overnight, I'm bearish right now, but mindful there is a bottom down there somewhere. It's just a gut feeling, but I think that its close and the market will rally back to somewhere around 4500.

Day trading, so easy a caveman could do it.
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Last Updated on March 31, 2023


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