If your trading today, your trading an inside daily bar.

Neither buyers or sellers seem very interested, hence a range has formed from 4676 to 4706. Still, that's 30 points. Mondays. Am I right?

About those inside daily bars

I took this trade Friday on the premise that the ES was going to break the top of the previous days range and was not disappointed, it was a 10 point winner. What stands out about this trade is the fact that I was able to accurately forecast the direction of the market prior to trading, come home after a night shift, take the trade and then go to bed- I only found out that I had won after I woke up Friday afternoon. Here's what I was looking at.



Here's why. Price can only consolidate for so long. The yellow dotted line on the chart is the prior day close AND the current day open. Look how well it supported price here after a long period of consolidation- almost a week. The better than statistical factor here was this period of consolidation, and knowing that it would end. So when Friday morning rolled around and I saw this, I took the trade, put my stop loss and take profit at 10 points and let her rip. Truthfully, it could have gone either way. Still, its a great trade. Look at the bottom of each chart, at the tabs. I'm now organizing my charts thus, each market is tabbed so I can analyze the market and better regard higher time continuity. Here's what's behind door #2.



Still working on the Bloodhound thing in free trail and SIM. All of this ties together and I'm trying to force it work in my time. It probably won't work. The key to success here is to try long and hard enough.

How to accurately predict the market direction.

Its 3:38 am

Probably going back to bed soon, possibly working on Bloodhound. Here's what the ES looks like this morning.



Is it enough to trade off of? Almost, but its early yet, Monday morning. Better off just to watch right now and try to get a feel for the market. I'm still looking for something. In my head I call them T-ball trades, or bread and butter trades. At its core its a risk aversion thing on my part. This is me trying to cope. For me to trade well I need to feel confident when I pull the trigger on a trade, So that's what I'm doing when I'm changing styles, methods, strategies. I'm looking for what makes me feel confident. I change quickly because there's a lot to try. When I get done here, when I trade, I want it to feel like more like hitting a T-ball, and less like trying to rob a velociraptor with a bat.

Anyway, these daily levels seem to be worth watching

Going to work.

This trade is based off support @ 4693 as we trade in this range. I'll revisit this tonight when I get home. Is this a T-ball trade?

A swing and a miss

That wasn't my T-ball trade. As usual I was flat wrong on the direction- I Still don't know how to trade, not even a clue. Here's where we're at right now.



You can see that I have another trade on. The thought on this one is we can't stay inside forever and we're still hella bullish on the higher timeframes. I picked the tallest target because we have all day to get it done. Had I been around to manage this mornings trade I probably would have cut that one short, and therein lies the rub, I can't be on the charts full time. I have to find a way that I can trade, work and spend time with my family. It's a tall order for sure, but I know that I am up to the task.

I don't know if I'll ever have an ah-ha moment where it all just clicks. I think that its possible that I'll figure it out piece by piece until such a time that I can put enough of those pieces together so that I can turn a profit.

And a swing and a hit.

This was a T-ball trade, not because it was a winner, but because it was easy.



I tapped out with 12 points. I thought about holding for the tall target, but chose to lock in the profits. This would have put me in profit for the week if I were a real trader. I'm working on it.



Banging out 10 point trades could be my jam, because that in part is what a t-ball trade is, it's roughly 10 points ES. I have a reason for this, but right now I have to go to work, so more later.

I know why this big ass candle is forming

And I now know how I could have traded it.



Context matters. Higher timeframe continuity is context. Here on the 240M and the daily we find this massive level, massive because of the spans of time involved. This candle was the result of price comming back and touching it. I think its significant that happened at night because it implies the amount of interest here must have been quite high.

Not speculation, Confirmation

The market took me for a ride this morning- 2 losers for -$732.36.







I have so much to say about this, but so little time, suffice to say this was one of those classic 'I was right the first time' trades. I was in the right ballpark here, if I can continually do that, then maybe eventually I'll learn to play ball.

michaelroth 

The market took me for a ride this morning- 2 losers for -$732.36.

Michael,

I love your first long on that timeframe and the higher (look left!).

What caused you to close the long and enter the short where you did?

The short... was price approaching resistance? Or did you short it because you thought it would continue lower, or that it would "break" lower? Or was it a reverse because "man... my long isn't working and it sure looks like its about to break lower"?

Longs at support, shorts at resistance.

Good trading IS patience and waiting for the right spots.. why play with 72o when when you could wait for a good hand?