LastDino 

Chaos is such an interesting topic. Its sad that it goes above my head. To your question about stops: Stops are important, its basically what that has kept me from blowing my account more than I've already done so. What you use your stop is almost as important as your primary trading strategy, and I consider it as a part of the strategy itself. For me I use ATR system which also trails the price. So if price moves so and so amount against me, I assume its sign of market changing its mood and I should get out of it till confirmation of the mood change where I could enter in the trade again in that changed direction.

I like the chaos talk too.
@LastDino. The maths can get far too complicated for even the fastest computers these days (and thats unfathomable) yet our brain can detect a pattern in a few milliseconds (even more unfathomable) but nonetheless I believe that was his point.

Computers can SCAN for patterns in a database faster than a human ever could. Period.

But to MATCH the pattern above the computer would have to be programmed to SEE exactly THAT pattern. Every single point comprising the whole area. And this is ONLY ONE of an infinite of possibilities... and it's is ONLY 2D!

Change a tiny tail somewhere in the picture and the computer is completely blind to it.

Humans can still see the picture if you change it slightly.

Computers now have the ability to "teach themselves" but if you need a snapshot of every variation in the database the database would get infinitely too large too quickly to be practical except in the most finite cases.

You could break it into pieces but that just means you can analyze more pieces at the same time but theres a limit to that too.

A SINGLE electromagnet light atom can spin around the whole world and give a slice of topology to the ENTIRE PLANET in fractions of a SECOND yet couldn't tell you a damn thing about anything about the things it was measuring.

Speed does not equal understanding.

Maybe I misunderstood what he was saying but what I said I believe is true.

Computers AS WE KNOW THEM will never replace the human brain.

...Tomorrows computers could be a totally different story!

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Sandpaddict 

I like the chaos talk too. @LastDino. The maths can get far too complicated for even the fastest computers these days (and thats unfathomable) yet our brain can detect a pattern in a few milliseconds (even more unfathomable) but nonetheless I believe that was his point. Computers can SCAN for patterns in a database faster than a human ever could. Period. But to MATCH the pattern above the computer would have to be programmed to SEE exactly THAT pattern. Every single point comprising the whole area. And this is ONLY ONE of an infinite of possibilities... and it's is ONLY 2D! Change a tiny tail somewhere in the picture and the computer is completely blind to it. Humans can still see the picture if you change it slightly. Computers now have the ability to "teach themselves" but if you need a snapshot of every variation in the database the database would get infinitely too large too quickly to be practical except in the most finite cases. You could break it into pieces but that just means you can analyze more pieces at the same time but theres a limit to that too. A SINGLE electromagnet light atom can spin around the whole world and give a slice of topology to the ENTIRE PLANET in fractions of a SECOND yet couldn't tell you a damn thing about anything about the things it was measuring. Speed does not equal understanding. Maybe I misunderstood what he was saying but what I said I believe is true. Computers AS WE KNOW THEM will never replace the human brain. ...Tomorrows computers could be a totally different story! Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Oh ya STOPs.

Stops in the past were the reason I was failing. Basically I was "locking in" loses constantly. Then I would take a small win manually usually as it started to retrace. Exacerbating the problem.

I wasn't able to start turning it around until I realized I had it backwards.

Now I don't use stops. At least not like I used to. I take profits instead. I take profits as it's heading in my favor.

I ADD as it goes AGAINST me (I know... I know... f-off).

I take positions off as it hits my mental stop THEN RETRACES. That's where I'll take my stop... of course sometimes I just have to cut and thats just part of the game.

This reduces me getting stopped out at the worst time as it usually turns after emotional extremes AND I'm NOT trying to break even on all contracts I'm trying for multiple "R" on EVERY ADD! Thats what tips the odds in my favor.

Just my view and opinion.

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Sandpaddict 

Oh ya STOPs. Now I don't use stops. At least not like I used to. I take profits instead. I take profits as it's heading in my favor. I ADD as it goes AGAINST me (I know... I know... f-off). I take positions off as it hits my mental stop THEN RETRACES. That's where I'll take my stop... Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

I have seen people do it that way and succeed. My question for them was, how do you know it will retrace rather then start another leg against you and put you underwater?

I do the opposite, add contracts as the trend develops. If it goes to the moon, which it sometimes does, I am set for a while. Hard or soft stop doesn’t matter so much, I think, if its in the right place.

MNSTrading 

I have seen people do it that way and succeed. My question for them was, how do you know it will retrace rather then start another leg against you and put you underwater? I do the opposite, add contracts as the trend develops. If it goes to the moon, which it sometimes does, I am set for a while. Hard or soft stop doesn’t matter so much, I think, if its in the right place.

MNSTrading 

I have seen people do it that way and succeed. My question for them was, how do you know it will retrace rather then start another leg against you and put you underwater?

I have have absolutely no idea! The way I do it is I have my starter. This is where if I only had ONE contract to trade I'd trade.

Now darn it if I didn't see the market go against me I wouldn't have believed it. But thats OK because I use a MAX contracts and add till that is hit.

To your question... if it continues against me I'll try to lighten contracts and ADD EVEN higher... IF... the context is right. If NOT I'll outright cut it all anywhere if I don't like price action. Clears my mind and I can be free to trade in any direction.

MNSTrading 

I do the opposite, add contracts as the trend develops. If it goes to the moon, which it sometimes does, I am set for a while. Hard or soft stop doesn’t matter so much, I think, if its in the right place.

My question to you is...

I have seen people do it that way and succeed. My question for them was, how do you know it will continue after you add rather then adding more "fire power" if it went against you and put you underwater?

You see if you are profitable and ADD higher and higher your pulling your average UP so that at the HEIGHT for your adding contracts your are at the most vulnerable place to do damage to your account should it go against you.

So by ADDING to a winning position you can actually turn that otherwise winner INTO a LOSER!

I am totally open to listening to any holes in my logic.

Thank you and good trading.


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My question to you is...

I have seen people do it that way and succeed. My question for them was, how do you know it will continue after you add rather then adding more "fire power" if it went against you and put you underwater?

You see if you are profitable and ADD higher and higher your pulling your average UP so that at the HEIGHT for your adding contracts your are at the most vulnerable place to do damage to your account should it go against you.

So by ADDING to a winning position you can actually turn that otherwise winner INTO a LOSER!

Listen I completely sympathize, it goes against common logic to add on the way up. Why? The human brain grieves losses 2x what it values gains. It is a particularity in the development of our cerebral cortex. Daniel Kanneman wrote about it extensively in Thinking Fast and Slow. he was awarded a Nobel prize in 2002.

So as our trade booty grows we get more and more fearful, "I should get out now. this is good enough. Gonna reverse any second now", turn into a hair trigger Yosemite Sam.

That kind of scalping takes a real mental toll.
Trusting the turbulence and a real sense of market direction takes some time, it doesn't happen right away. We are talking some deep human conditioning on that particular issue. One of the key insights was understanding the Marsh-mellow Test

It is also why trade psychology (which includes money management) is more important than anything else.

MNSTrading 

My question to you is... I have seen people do it that way and succeed. My question for them was, how do you know it will continue after you add rather then adding more "fire power" if it went against you and put you underwater? You see if you are profitable and ADD higher and higher your pulling your average UP so that at the HEIGHT for your adding contracts your are at the most vulnerable place to do damage to your account should it go against you. So by ADDING to a winning position you can actually turn that otherwise winner INTO a LOSER! Listen I completely sympathize, it goes against common logic to add on the way up. Why? The human brain grieves losses 2x what it values gains. It is a particularity in the development of our cerebral cortex. Daniel Kanneman wrote about it extensively in Thinking Fast and Slow. he was awarded a Nobel prize in 2002. So as our trade booty grows we get more and more fearful, "I should get out now. this is good enough. Gonna reverse any second now", turn into a hair trigger Yosemite Sam. That kind of scalping takes a real mental toll. Trusting the turbulence and a real sense of market direction takes some time, it doesn't happen right away. We are talking some deep human conditioning on that particular issue. One of the key insights was understanding the Marsh-mellow Test It is also why trade psychology (which includes money management) is more important than anything else.

Yeup I don't disagree either. Great book and I understand Kahnemans point about losses feeing worse than winning feels good but I'm on very short timeframes and I take into consideration I'm going to scale into a max.

And I still use money management rules.

I find it easier to enter small test and scale. That suits me and part of psychology is trading comfortably.

Ya the marshmallow test. Basically shows the kids that have the ability to delay gratification, some even finding ways to distract themselves vs succumbing to the temptation, showed a larger correlation to succeed late in life than anything else they tested.

I think it was originally cookies if I remember correctly. Lol.

Good stuff! Thank you.

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So in 2016, after watering plants for a while, I got a job working for an alarm company. The pay was too low watering and the job was organizing accounts for a new company. Start-up, they like to say. We don't say Startup anymore because it has been half a decade, but suffice to say we got some mileage out that designation. No one says as a little kid, I want to be an accountant, but it suits my personality, and many of my jobs were of that type. Non-accountants cant keep up with the flow of math so as long as your numbers make sense in the end, you're good. So good job for me because I'm quite introverted. What percent of traders are introverted? One of you knows.

So I started calling on dead accounts and it was my first time on a national switchboard. I could be talking to anyone from your grandpa in Tennessee to Douglas Fairbanks. That's how I learned how to write, all the talking. Write like you talk and you'll do well. Don't write like you're kissing your freshman English teachers ass to get a passing grade. Some people never leave that level, because they don't value writing but if you can really write true things it will help you and help people. Traders are different kind of human, and marvelously well read in areas of absolutely no importance. This is what I heard...

Only ten percent of people world wide figure out how to put on a trade, open an account, fund it etc. So that's the top 10% of everyone you've met, doctors, businessman, drug dealers, pool sharks, cabana boys; all formidable people, but out of those 10% only ten percent succeed? Its bananas. What other profession is like that? Start-ups. Right?

But I collected accounts for a while until a bunch of the electronics we used started piling up in returns. Well you know what has two thumbs and likes to take shit apart with tiny screwdrivers? This guy. So I started doing that instead. I will take physical activity over computer nonsense any day. Speaking of.

Here's the days main event, not very exciting.


russell


The grey line is the open and the two green lines are my first and second entry prior to the open. I got out before the open and plan on doing that from now on unless I come up with a good reason not to. Sure, the open could go my way but I'm really just betting on black right?

So at 9:45 or so entered short again and you can see after the dust cleared the consolidation just drifted upward. So no gain no loss today. This is 6 days now of breakeven. (Friday was decent, but nothing great) The other thing I am changing is taking off coffee. Will still trade it on a four hour chart if indicated but its on a back burner. I should focus more. Once the micro CL comes online I will change out of options. I can do oil, gold and RTY all in micro futures. The adding is way easier if I'm just clicking a contract than having to choose on the option chain then and bid for it.

My entries could be a lot tighter, will work on that too.

Water_Bubbles



The Big Blue World.

How did this world appear? Did it grow slowly like a bubble? Did it appear on the back of a galactic turtle? or did it form instantaneously, a miracle from the devas world?

I was not there, and you were not there but turtles are still here to this day.
We can ask them.

They did ask Albert Einstein about the most important question. What do you think the professor said? Not about E=Mc2 or square root of pi, not those things. He said the most important question is "is the universe a friendly place?"

We are all struggling with grief, everytime we get hurt, or the hard times come, or even someone dies. It just can't be avoided. At that time our focus is only on this precious life we share with other people, animals, trees. We all know that.

Where are we headed after that? I don't know, you don't know. The Google Census department is not currently calculating the answer for anyone. But tell me this, say you had to answer quickly, at the devil's check-in line at the entrance to the Hellmouth;

Is the Universe a friendly place?

ra_c2003.7.2har65206__slider


Market Structure

What is it really? The market structure we impose is a little bit like building a head on a head right. Evolutionarily, it is what organisms do, they build structure after structure on top of each other. So our cerebral cortex (monkey brain) is built on top of a lizard brain that controls our quick responses. The cerebral cortex will not move you out of the path of a speeding bus, only the lizard brain with it's direct control over the nervous system can do it. So stacking up structures is not a foreign concept, but how useful is it?

We employ the complex in two ways, analysis and building position. Some of us have many many indicators telling us this and that. At one time I used Ichimoku clouds, sometimes I still put them up for decoration, but complex indicators give complex and often conflicting signals. Simple is better in that regard. Are you long or short?

I think all of us do little tricks to enhance returns, some put a buy way at the outside of a trend-line hoping it will trigger. I use short term mean reversion when the market points one way and it gets pushed strongly in the other. Most often this will revert back rather than start trending the new direction. So there is a slight edge there. Edge is hard to come by man, I'll take what I can get. Hell, fading big candles, there is probably an edge there too, but back to the main point.

It is very hard to impose concrete structure on a fluid chaotic market. Actually its easy, but it doesn't work. I remember a story about a Trader who had just started a technical analysis dept. At the time TA was looked at as voodoo tea leaves bullshit. So the new guy goes up to the bosses office and explains about support and resistance. Boss says "So your're telling me the price won't go below here, what you're calling support" "Yes Sir"

The Boss gets on the phone and says sell a thousand (soy)beans. Price shoots down. He says "If I can do that anyone can"

So I just use the candles, price doesn't lie. I have the momentum indicator but its really just to say "hey dummy, price change could be coming" I will never tell anyone I am a particularly good trader, but I don't get angry at the market anymore and I win on average. Good enough right?