I think that in your case fundamental analysis is a must. To form ideas.
Based on the description of your personality.

Tuesday March 8th

Read a bit about wheat, corn and oats.

Hard Red Winter Wheat is mostly grown in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas.
Soft Red Winter Wheat is grown in Texas, around the Great Lakes and in states on the Atlantic Coast which have high rainfall.

Corn is actually Americas oldest and largest crop. It originated over 7000 years ago. One of its ancestors is called "teosinte" and if you look at it, it actually looks more like soybeans.
Corn is mostly grown in the corn-belt: Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and Missouri

Oats are mainly a livestock feed.
It seems that oats were never a very liquid market, but one of the reasons for its decline was the decline of horses and mules as working animals. That probably goes way back to the early 1900s, but still interesting to know.

SomePsychoDude 

I think that in your case fundamental analysis is a must. To form ideas. Based on the description of your personality.

I wouldn't say it's a must. It definitely also interests me, but more for the purpose of getting a better picture of what happens behind the chart.
For my trading I'll stick to to my chart pattern based plan.

Wednesday March 9th

Only chart updating today. Slowly the transition to the "outside world" starts to kick in a bit.

Thursday March 10th




Finally got the money that Mr. Paper and Mr. Sim raised for me from various sources.
It's $ 150,000, which is coincidentally pretty much the perfect amount of capital. I suspect they knew that.
According to Paperland law, I had to set up a fund for managing money for outside investors.
I named it "Grant Liberty Fund", in honor of Ulysses S. Grant, the General that led the Union to victory in the American Civil War, and then became the 18th president of the United States.

I have read a bunch of biographies over the last few years, most of them of business and Wall Street type of characters, but the most inspiring was and still is that of Grant.
Why?
If you look at his life closely, you come to a conclusion. At some point he must have figured out something that he didn't understand before.
And I want to know what that was!

Friday March 11th

Read a bit about the beef-complex.
There's a beef production cycle which takes about 3.5 - 4 years from calf born until slaughter.
So the cow gets a calf. If it's a bull-calf it's either used for breeding, or it gets castrated and becomes a steer, gets fed and then slaughtered for beef.
If it's female it's called heifer. It gets either also fed for becoming beef or it gets used for breeding and becomes a cow. With this cow then the cycle starts again.

There are some indications that, because of the very different nature in contrary to the grains etc., the price movement could be in general of a bit of a different kind. If you think of it as the time span of "the cattle being planted and harvested", that makes sense. Feeder Cattle feels like moving in a bit of an unusual manner, compared to all the other markets, but that could also be only a temporary appearance as well.

Monday March 14th

Two markets that might be a trade in the nearer future.


Sugar


This could be a valid flag in about two days. But since the mast isn't that long, it's the question if a min r/r of 1:2 would be possible.



Cocoa


This could become a nice H&S. The saying goes "A H&S has to have something to reverse", which doesn't look like much here, but I still deem it valid based on similar examples in Diary of a Commodity Trader

Tuesday March 15th

Cocoa had a favorable downday today and Sugar is also still valid.


Soybeans


Soybeans could turn into a long symmetrical triangle


Orange Juice


As well as Orange Juice.


Also finished The Futures Game - Who Wins, Who Loses & Why.
This would be the perfect introduction book for someone not at all being inclined to gamble, but who wants to understand the business aspect right from the start.
The first half of the book is about some basic stuff, but quickly progresses to explaining also types of spreads and basics on options. A solid chapter about money management: good bets, bad bets, probability of ruin type of content.
It then also touches on things like government and regulatory things.
The second half explains every market, its specialities and all sorts of useful information to get a better picture behind the price movements.
Reasonable and solid book!

Wednesday March 16th

Started to read Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade Them.
Goal is to make the picture behind the chart a bit more lively and also to better understand the motives, especially those of the big players, in the market better.
Interesting is, that there are basically only a handful of giants in the grains, which are those type of 150-200 years old companies that definitely have mastered the test of time.
First chapter touched on Cargill with an interview with the trading manager of the firm's agricultural space. Actually the author also started his career there.

Thursday March 17th


Cocoa

Cocoa is setting up well.
The other observations are also still looking good. So I think there's a chance of having at least one entry next week.

Read a bit about Wheat. One interesting thing to think about is, that Wheat is actually mainly consumed by humans, whereas the other grains by animals/livestock.
Another thing to consider is also, that rapeseed is a biofuel as well, which overlaps into the energy-market in this regard.