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4th loss. I can't deny that I'm a bit agitated, but that's just how this works.
My tracking P&F now got into a downward column, but if my scale isn't completelx off, I consider it still totally in the norm.
Including commissions I'm down 7.98% now, so the first quarter of 2023 was definitely a losing one.
"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
Bought Corn. That's a pretty interesting situation, because it's at the same time also a weekly/longer-term pattern breakout.
Point 3 on the long-term is point 1 at the short term, and point 4 long-term is point 2 short-term.
So this could have a bit of a better chance to work out.
Long-term
"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
Sold Corn.
It's now the 5th loss in a row. I can't deny that I have moments of doubt, but overall I'm still confident, mainly because of three facts:
If I expect a winrate of 30%-35% the probability of 5 losing trades in a row (within a 50 trade period) is 100%
I know from the Wheat-trade in July 2022 that there are big 1:8 r/r trades in the market that work out and that I'm able to catch
The goal l have in mind is a rate of return of 20% annually, which still seems reasonable looking on the former two points (I'm down 9.53% now for the year)
"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
Trade 06 / 2023 Entry
Entered Wheat on the short side.
I've chosen it to be a continuation H&S. The problem here is, that it could also be a triangle but the triangle profit-target wouldn't have allowed to enter it because te r/r would have been below 2.
Maybe I'll add a rule for such a case, but not now. I'll observe that over time.
I still work under the precept of better entering a trade more than a trade less.
Longer term picture
"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
Interesting is that the May and July Contracts are differing a lot, which I didn't expect. Actually so much, that my Weekly Continuous Contract Chart is kinda inaccurate now.
But it is an interesting discovery, as well as the fact that the November Soybeans are trading quite more volume than August and September.
"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
This is just speculation, but perhaps the reason soybean for volatility could be due to the demand of it prior to Lunar new year in jan/feb. I know a large part of soybeans grown here in USA is exported overseas to China/South East Asia.
Sounds absolutely possible. I have looked a bit into the topic of grain producing countries, export and so on lately. It's a very interesting topic, especially in regards to the ongoing Russia/Ukraine situation.
"Thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things"
