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This is copied out of a webinar, but I think it should be okay to post it here.
That's one of the most important things I have to remind myself constantly. It's an average profit/loss distribution.
Most of the trades are a zero-sum game. That's a fact and at least for the type of method I'm trying to trade, there's no way around this.
My goal is to be in the trade when it turns out to be a runner, but the vast majority just won't be one.
Watched webinar chapter 11 part 6. This was actually the last one and contained a pretty solid blueprint for a strategy.
Also finished reading chapter 11 in the book.
This is what my big picture trend on the M60 chart looks like. It is my leading trend.
We're in the upper half of the progression now. I expect it to run to about 4600, which is the lower half of the progression projected into the future. Until that point I intend to trade every long signal I get on the M10 chart. But for now I'm in the first testphase, to figure out ambiguities and things I haven't thought about for my new method, so it's not too strict until I start the second testphase which will be 50 trades where every signal has to be traded according to my plan, no matter what.
Entered right before unemplyment numbers. I did that on purpose, because for now my plan is to ignore most of the numbers coming out, except the really big numbers like Fed Interest Rate or the like.
Entry signal was a reversal bar. Doesn't look like one, because it opened at its low, but per definition it is one, so I took it.
Got stopped out pretty quick with the big numbers-candle.
This was an unnecessary loss. I wasn't sure if the big outside-bar produced by the numbers is to be considered for how I move my stop. I took it into consideration, which was a mistake. An outside bar counts as one only AFTER I've entered. So this would have been about break-even.
Felt a bit discouragement after the second loss, but I have a way easier time re-entering and just taking signals than with my old methodology.
It's way smoother knowing that only every 10min there could be taking action necessary, than being stressed out by my 100 Trades chart that gets out of control in fast market phases.
Pretty blunderous day. But since I'm still in testphase, it's okay because that's for what the testphase is.
Actually i thought the market is closed today and then got caught by surprise as it closed at 12 o'clock.
Trade #5
10min
Will not take that as a two-candle-reversal entry signal in the future, but since I hadn't yet defined such a case exactly I semi-consciously took it.
Went for a run and basically had finished trading for the day. As I was back and took a look at the market and saw that reversal bar I just jumped in without even thinking.
Then I realized that a) It has only 8 ticks range and my minimum for considering it significant is 9 ticks and b) suddenly the market closed and my rule for holding positions overnight is, that the stop has to be at least b/e and so unfortunately I'm forced to break that rule.
Good thing is, these blunders don't really bother me today. Just write them down in my tradingplan and try to avoid the next time.
10min just entry
Exit
Fortunately stopped out over night with no problems.
The CME usually has partial-day trading on US holidays when you would expect markets to be closed all day. If you're going to trade those days, make sure you have checked the trading hours on the CME website.
I would suggest taking those days off, however. If you're trading a US index contract like ES or MES, the actual S&P stocks are not being traded because the NY exchange is closed; also, most US traders and investors will have the day off and won't be in it. So you're going to be trading in a thin market without all the usual participants, and how it acts will be anyone's guess -- but generally, slow and boring without much going on.
Probably not worth it.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
I looked on the CME Excel-Sheet. There it seemed to me, that the market is completely closed for Monday, but maybe I confused something with the time-zones. Probably the better idea to stay out completely on the holidays and resist the itch in the mouse-finger.
Got a pretty wide span two-candle-reversal and then in that another reversal bar was built. traded it based on the first signal but gotta think about a rigid rule for these cases.
Perfect formed reversal bar as entry signal.
Can't deny a bit of frustration, but this was the first full day. I have to stay patient and look what the rest of the week will bring me.
This is the only big winner out of the about 40 Trades from the second prom queen trade series.
A last one is remaining, but I think it is very unlikely to bring back the losses that got produced by all the other ones.
Doubt starts to arise. Not really about my entry and stop technique, but if I'm going long in a downtrend. I actually know that the 10min trend is going down, but from my understanding since the 60min trend is going upwards, I'm obligated to trade long signals on the 10min.
Current 60min big-picture trend
Trade #12
Perfect reversal bar and turned out to work out very well.
