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No stops moved.
Read chapter 9
Watched chapter 9, part 1
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Concerning my Crudeoil trend question from previous week. I was wrong about the downtrend being broken. It turned out to be an intricate uptrend in the regression-arm of the downtrend.
That's how I see the MES from a trend perspective at the moment.
We're in the regression-phase of the uptrend right now, which in itself is an intricate downtrend, but from my understanding, nevertheless I would look for long signals on the 10min chart tomorrow.
Moved stop twice
Win: +0.22P
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Watched chapter 9, part 2&3 today
MES
60min
10min
Tried to theorize a bit about my new approach.
The idea of trading long signals today would have been correct. It pulled back 50%, looking on the pink trend. Not sure how to classify the blue trend, since I first thought that one is my leading trend, but now would be broken.
I intend to use reversal bars and the equivalent of 2 candles building one, as an entry signal with the next bar having to close above the previous bar's high as a confirmation.
Would have produced quite some signals today, but also some unclear situations.
For my stop techniqe I'm not exactly sure, but it will likely take into consideration if inside bars appear.
The absolute key-takeaway from today's webinars was Erdal saying this: From around 100 trades, expect about 40 being losers, 40 being wins which are the same size as the losses and probably 10-15 trades which are quite profitable and from that 1-4 which are extremely profitable.
This is the thing I have to get into my head and I have to accept a 100% as the reality of trading!
It kinda was somehow in my mind, and my first about 90 MES trades, even though not on a very solid strategy, pretty accurately reflect that (if you match up the low winrate with the few highly profitable about 1:10 r/r, whereas Erdal is I think more on 1:5 as highly profitable), it was very important to hear that again today!
Plan is to try to come up with a first version of my new strategy around the first September week and get slowly back on the road.
Watched webinars chapter 11, part 1,2 & 3
Had planned to start my new strategy today, but not even close to have it solidly worked out.
3 more webinars to watch and some sections in books to re-read on the plan for the next days. The most important thing is to keep moving forward! Better slow than standing still!
