MNSTrading 

I had a friend like that too. That behavior taught me more than anything else. Anything. It is a kind of empty compulsion. Don't waste your life brothers. Don't go chasing waterfalls. Stick to the lakes and the rivers you're used to. If there is a take the loss button. I would do it in Obi Wan Kenobi voice, "Take the loss Luke, move away from the dark side"

You got me laughing.

We all succumb to the fog and the pain. Most never make it out. I am not yet out 100% myself. The tentacles still reach out and try to pull me back in.

Maybe it is like the volcra reaching out for you as you are trying to leave "the fold" on Netflix' excellent production of "Shadow and Bone." (sorry for the spoiler!)

sstheo 

Maybe it is like the volcra reaching out for you as you are trying to leave "the fold" on Netflix' excellent production of "Shadow and Bone." (sorry for the spoiler!)

I watched the whole series. I didn't read the books though so don't know what happens next. Brilliant writing, truly. It could be loosely based on ancient Tibet where magical monks allied with the armies of the Khan to battle the Chinese across the great Wall. The setting and wardrobe is consistent with that, mixed in with a lot of Russian culture where The Heretic stands in for Rasputin.

Very creative.

Here are two great ideas from my new Jigsaw training that I want to share:

(I consider these ideas non-proprietary.)


A) Reversal or Pullback? Check 4 things.

Perhaps the most asked question in trading is "Is this counter-trend move just a small pullback in the trend or is this actually the beginning of a trend reversal?"

There are four things that need to be in place to consider the pullback the beginning of a full reversal:

(1) Did price reverse where I expected it to reverse?
(2) Was the delta accompanying the move significant?
(3) Did the move happen on higher volume?
(4) Did price move many ticks, or just a few?

B) What is the best way to solve most trading problems? Have great entries!

While there is lots of talk about trading psychology and discipline during drawdowns, etc, etc., MOST TRADING PROBLEMS are solved when your have really good entries. It seems so obvious, but sometimes you just have to state the obvious!

Really taking the time to analyze the market on market replay or while FLAT during a live sessions is the best way to review the price action and discover some elusive "great entries." Focus your study and practice on pin-pointing the best entries and BIG dividends will be yours.

My contribution-- Do your best to minimize MAE per trade and reduce the time-in-market by discovering the best time to enter each visible pattern, long or short.

The bears came out of their caves in force last night for a grand feast of burnt ends, brisket, T-bone, and sirloin; the munchkins got hamburgers.

However you look at it, the bulls got barbequed.

I knew I needed to be careful this morning, but with such a big down leg, I assumed correctly that trying longs - at the right time - should be highly profitable.

I got some longs off the lows after the open, but the most interesting trade was the one at the 50% pullback after the first pop after the low:



See the yellow circle. I was watching the OBV very closely. It was dropping and dropping, and then BAM. We got a sharp pop.

Alone, that OBV would be a great low-risk entry (for at least a scalp), but then we got something else: See the yellow arrow. We were at the HWB level (50% half way back on the fib tool) of the first leg up off the lows.

Two great signals came together and I took it for a great trade.

The POC and the Value Area Low (VAL) from yesterday's RTH session may hold this market from rising higher today.



I am looking for shorts in this area now; the big push down overnight can't be ignored.

At the same time, there were clearly some powerful buyers at the lows. This is in incredible bull tail on the daily bar.



The day is far from over. Let's see how it shakes out.

Ambidextrous?


I made over $400 today trading micros, but it should have been $1000+. Why? Because I am still missing some good trend-staying abilities. I see the potential, and it taunts me, LOL

Directly related to this, a friend and I realized that we both have the same goal, but are coming at it from exactly the opposite direction:

A. He is a day-trader who used to take 1 to 3 position trades per day and rarely scalped.

B. I am a scalper who takes 10 to 30 trades a day, and have rarely held a trade for more than 30 ticks in trends.

The market is a combination of ranges and trends, so it makes total sense to be able to both scalp and hold for bigger moves too.

Right now, on big range days I do better. But on trending days, he does better. We both want to be EXCELLENT in all market conditions.

We both want the other person's skills, LOL.

Is it really possible to be able to trade - equally well - both ranges and trends?

I think so, if we can...

a) Speed up the trend trader. The trend trader needs to be willing to scalp more, especially in the many, many ranges that are present each day. Ignore the added commission. Take profits sooner.

b) Slow down the scalper. I need to learn to identify trends faster, get in, and stay in. If I don't stay in, at least I can RECOGNIZE the bigger picture and continue to scalp in the direction of the trend ("trading around the core"). While getting lots of profitable scalps in the direction of the trend is admirable, I really want to learn to just hang on longer. Let the tiny-profit counter-trend base hits just fade away untouched as I bag some home runs. Yes, base hits are what win most ballgames, but Babe Ruth got some great home runs!

The KEY to both of the above is proper identification of the current state of the market, and being willing to switch methods.

We both recognize that all trades start out as a scalp, but we both need to handle things a bit differently: Depending on the market condition, he needs to be willing to take more trades and take the scalp profits before they revert and take out his stop,

and I need to be willing to let the winners run.

(Of course, we all need to remember that when there is no clear trade the best position is usually no position. "SOH" is a great thing!)

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This is a fascinating topic I will revisit later. Today my youngest child is graduating from high school. Fun day in our house!

What does it mean?


(daily ES volume delta chart)


Look at the 6 Points of Control all in a line.

Despite the wild gyrations in price from a high of 4230 to a low of 4165 this week, the true VALUE of the market is slowly, incrementally, migrating down.

It could change in a flash.

In fact, that flash is coming in a couple hours with the NFP - often the biggest flash of the month!

----------------

The 4215 zone is the high of the last two days. It might hold the upside. 4230 is next if that breaks. ... then new ATH's above 4238.25.

Yesterday's low at 4165 is a good target for the downside. If that breaks, then 4150 and then 4110 are great targets to the downside.


(daily ES volume delta chart, with yellow POCs )


Notice the targets/S&R areas I have marked are at the O, H, L, C or POC of prior days.

-----------------

Trading the NFP.

Caution.

I used to trade FX all the time, and the NFP was the granddaddy of news releases. The action seems muted a bit on the ES compared to FX, but the difference might be in the leverage employed in FX. (Hint: I was using way too much!)

My best advice for all traders with fewer than 2 years under your belt: Don't trade today.

But if you have some good experience, then WAIT 15 min for a good post NFP range, and then take the breakout at the highs or lows of that range.

If you get wrong-footed, just flatten immediately. The trend that begins after the first 15 min often continues for the rest of the day.

Most importantly, be FLAT at the time of the release.

NFP outcome



Check out that green bar!

The bulls are back in town...

I didn't think the bulls could break through six days of resistance. But they did.

Fortunately, I am doing much better about laying aside my personal bias and just going WITH the market wherever it decides to go.

It is much more profitable this way.

We must see WHAT IS, not what we want it to be.

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Update. The ES price just reached 2229.

Do you have a 5 minute chart with your poc connected with a line ? I haven't done much with footprint charts. Sure I looked at them before but I never gave them a real study always seemed like the volume distribution was pretty similar with the majority near the middle of the bar.

Good stuff

Cutloss 

Do you have a 5 minute chart with your poc connected with a line ? I haven't done much with footprint charts. Sure I looked at them before but I never gave them a real study always seemed like the volume distribution was pretty similar with the majority near the middle of the bar. Good stuff

Here is the current 5 min ES Volume Delta chart with the POCs marked. Times are US mountain time.



I don't use this chart on a daily basis, but I am sure some people use it.

A. Stay long above while above the POC and the candle is green. Stay short when below the POC and the candle is red.

B. But remember that the POC acts like a magnet, and magnets only have influence within a certain range. So if you are still "close to" the POC, consider it a magnet.

Once you get outside that range, the price is often shooting up or down, trying to find a former high volume node/POC to hover around. So if you are a at least a few ticks above or below the POC that that the directional idea presented in A is valid.

There are a lot of variables here, and I temper all directional biases with an MA on my fast chart.