Monday

Last Friday was an extreme day. Today FDAX opened inside prior day HL range (down gap), IB ended inside prior day’s HL range. IB is short.

Not looking good for a trade.

Same for FESX.

Tuesday

Last day of the month.
Today FDAX opened below prior day HL range (down gap), the gap was not closed during IB, so IB ended below prior day’s HL range. IB is long.

I'm still not sure how to trade the last day of the month. I can play with the filters until a good trade shows up, but that's not the way to do it. Needs work to get to a process for the last day of the month.

So, no trade.

Same for FESX.

Wednesday

First day of the month. Stats are looking good.

Today FDAX opened inside prior day HL range (no gap) and IB ended inside prior day’s HL range. IB is short.

DAX Short trade
Entry 10:00 @ 15263
Exit 11:00 @ 15304
SL 41 pts
Result -41 pts

Historical results with this setup:
237 pts (19 trades/win% 79%)

Let’s see

For FESX a long trade from 11:00-14:30 looks ok (SL12 pts).

edit 10:35: Looked like a good entry, but a loss anyway
edit 18:30: SL for FESX was 2 points too tight, so also hit SL

Thursday

Today FDAX opened inside prior day HL range (no gap) and IB ended inside prior day’s HL range. IB is long 8pts.

DAX Short trade
Entry 11:00 @ 15338
Exit 12:00 @ 15307
SL 36 pts
Result 31 pts

Historical results with this setup:
258 pts (21 trades/win% 71%)

Let’s see

FESX not good for a trade

I have been looking at NQ data to apply the same rules as I’m using for FDAX.

This seems not to be possible. NQ data has a different distribution, which I already new, because I had to re-define my filter 'ranges' for NQ. I will have to look for different rules/filters.

FESX has a similar data distribution as FDAX, but it’s not giving many good historical trades, so will need work as well.

When looking at the data from 2010 till now, the following shows:
(The values shown in the legenda are calculated based on ATR14 for Prior Day OC and HL or 40 day average of IB OC values for IB OC)

FDAX




NQ




Most significant are:
* Gaps (open compared to Prior Day HL)
* Gaps closed or not during IB
* Price position 30 minutes after opening (9:30am CET time for FDAX, or 10:00am ET for NQ; ignore the 9:30 in the image for NQ)
* And NQ has more days with smaller ranges

Something came up.

When looking at the historical trade results, first I look at the win percentage. Second I look at the sum of the results and for FDAX I want a minimum of 10 pts profit per trade. Using the sum will need change, as 10 pts in 2010 can be compared with about 25 pts now. The FDAX in 2010 has been around 6000 and currently it's >15000.

For the stats I already changed this in March or something, but not for the trading results.

A solution could be to compare the result of the historical trades with the IB open or the ATR for instance.

Anyway, it could only bring more trades, not less.

Deetee 

Monday The ATR is low, so the SL as well. 12% for this trade is 14 pts, which is small and risky. I would review the SL at the entry, but I have an appointment, so will just let is be. ... edit 12:09: Will think about these days with a low ATR, as the max SL of 24% would have been 28 pts, which is not high. I could for instance take ATR based on 60 days.

So I tried the 60 days, but I realised today, that in the database all the calculated trades are based on an ATR of 14. I could replace the data.
But also all the ranges that I created would need reviewing. Not for now. I will see when the ATR gets low again, and just use a minimum of 20+ points.

Friday

Today FDAX opened above prior day HL range (up gap) and the gap was closed during IB. IB ended inside prior day’s HL range. IB is short.

Closed up gaps on Friday didn't happen much in the past 12 years, so can't trade today.



FESX a few more occasions but not good for a trade either

Results

This week I had 2 (FDAX) trades in this journal, 10 points loss.

The last time I had a losing week was 13-17 September, so there has been a nice winning streak since then, with the following points:




Total results for this journal:



Have a good weekend and looking forward to next week

PS. FESX I’m journaling as well. I’m not trading them live. This needs work before I’m trade them and before I'm going to post the trades like I’m doing for FDAX, although I am mentioning them here for the record.