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Today FDAX opened inside prior day HL range (no gap) and IB ended inside prior day’s HL range. IB OC is long.
Now, when I apply the filters, 16 historical trades remain.
I want to come up with something, that tells me which trade to pick.
I like the ones with 81% win, but one of the rules (for 16 trades) is, that the historical results should have 10 pts per trade profit. So, the only one that fits that rule, has 187 pts (/16 >11 pts per trade), but the win % is 68 (min. win% required is 67%), and a SL of 12% of ATR (which is kind of low, 21 pts for today).
But then, if I look at the 81% win trade with SL 12, than that looks like the better chance for a winning trade.
Trading with SL 12% can only work, if the entry is good. Well, that counts for all trades of course, but more for the low SL trades.
Not sure yet what to do with this. Need to fine tune the rule how to pick the trade (and to avoid thinking). Might take one of them, maybe not. Will check before 11:30.
FESX no trade.
edit 11:30: in doubt, don't trade. Tomorrow another try
These two potential trades both have the same entry and stop loss, correct? Only difference being time of exit?
If you can only choose one, the first would be more appealing to me due not only to the higher win rate but also much less time in the market, which means lower risk of something unexpected happening.
I suppose one other option might be to enter the trade, see where it is at noon, then perhaps adjust the stop higher.
Thanks Schnook, I think the same. Indeed less risk on shorter trades.
For the journal, I would just like to have things fixed. But sometimes my live trades are slightly different (like moving the SL, or taking profit/scaling down).
I'm thinking to come up with a number that tells me how good the trade is, based on No. of trades, pts/trade, SL size and duration of the trade. And to let that be the descission maker.
Today FDAX opened below prior day HL range (down gap) and the gap was closed during IB. IB ended inside prior day’s HL range. IB OC is long and IB HL range is big.
Not sure yet which filters to apply on the last day of the month, but I don’t see a trade. Same for FESX.
Today FDAX opened inside prior day HL range (no gap) and IB ended inside prior day’s HL range. IB is long.
The best trade started at 9:30, short, till 10:30.
But I identified this too late, and price was already >10pts lower, so I didn’t take the trade. Unless price would come back to 15946 (9:30 price).
The next one is:
DAX Long trade
Entry 11:00 @ 15936
Exit 13:30 @ 15939
SL 40 pts
Result 3 pts
Historical results with this setup:
291 pts (22 trades/win% 77%)
Let’s see
edit 9:45:
- FESX not good enough for a trade.
- During IB I'm following a process, depending on the variables as mentioned in this journal. For IB I'm using wide ranges, as IB is constantly on the move, and it's impossible to change the values all the time. If there is no good trade starting at 9:30 (based on the wide IB ranges), then at 9:30 I add the correct values for the IB to the filters. After doing that, today a good trade started at 9:30, which I didn't want to take because price already moved into the right direction.
