Friday

The IB is long. There is an up gap which has not been closed. Looks like a solid setup

DAX Long trade
Entry 10:30 @ 15381
Exit 12:00 @ 15393
SL 45 pts
Result 12 pts

Historical results with this setup:
540 pts (23 trades/win% 87%)

Let's see

edit 10:30: SL increased with 5p to allow gap closing

Hi @Deetee

This Friday is not one in line with the others - as we see a prolonged weekend.
Normally on a Monday money is flowing into the markets and taken out on Fridays.
Now this weekend we do have 3 days (in the risk) instead of the normal 2.
So traders will not be pushing this Friday too much. And we have still not seen the gap
being closed...

Good trades!
GFIs1

GFIs1 

Hi @Deetee This Friday is not one in line with the others - as we see a prolonged weekend. Normally on a Monday money is flowing into the markets and taken out on Fridays. Now this weekend we do have 3 days (in the risk) instead of the normal 2. So traders will not be pushing this Friday too much. And we have still not seen the gap being closed... Good trades! GFIs1

Hi,
Thank you for your valueable input/insights.
I'm actually aware of that info (from your journal and also @Schnook spoke about it). In the meanwhile I did the work to identify these days for 2010-2021, but haven't done the homework yet to implement this. It's quite a work as I would need to review all the setups that I have now (to exclude these specific days).
I'm wondering, do you also consider the US holidays (on Mondays, like Martin Luther King Day, Presidents day, Memorial day, ...) as a 'risk' day like you describe in your message, or do you handle these differently?

Thanks
Deetee

edit 22-5 8:00: For now I will just check the long weekends, and leave the current setups as they are until I have time to review them (in July, calm month and I can include Q2 2021 in the data)

Results

This week I had 2 trades in this journal, 88 points profit

Total results for this journal:



Thanks for following and have a good weekend

Tuesday

Day after Pentecost Monday.
10:00am IFO numbers.
The IB is short. There is an up gap.

DAX Long trade
Entry 9:30 @ 15538
Exit 10:00 @ 15541
SL 46 pts
Result 3 pts

Historical results with this setup:
130 pts (14 trades/win% 71%)

Maybe there will be a 2nd trade today.
Let's see

edit 10:12: No 2nd trade. Only with a good short 10:00-10:30 bar my files gave a nice trade. The best trade with a long 10:00-10:30 bar would bring 5 points profit per trade, which is not enough for a trade

Wednesday

The IB is short, there is no gap and IB is within prior day HL range.

DAX Short trade
Entry 9:30 @ 15483
Exit 10:00 @ 15487
SL 45 pts
Result -4 pts

Historical results with this setup:
432 pts (42 trades/win% 76%)

Let's see

Thursday

The IB is short, there is no gap and IB closed below prior day HL range.

DAX Long trade
Entry 9:30 @ 15380
Exit 10:00 @ 15384
SL 37 pts
Result 4 pts

Historical results with this setup:
178 pts (18 trades/win% 72%)

edit 10:00: SL almost hit (low 15345)

Friday

The IB is short-long-short-long-short-long, there is no gap and IB closed inside prior day HL range.

So, no trade.

Monday

Memorial Day (US) & last day of the month.

Looking at Memorial day (excluding the ones that were on the same day as IFO announcement & 2nd Pentecost day), only 8 occurrences remain. 7 of these had a long IB, and all 7 had a winning trade. So, if today the IB is long (at least about 10 points), then I’ll take a short trade at 9:30.

So, no trade today

Tuesday

First day of the month.

Looking at ‘1st day of the month’ data on Tuesdays, there are only 8 occurrences. With the IB long, a short trade gives the best result. I’m not sure if I should look only at the Tuesdays, or that ‘1st day of the month’ data doesn’t need to be filtered on the weekday. If I don’t, the long trades are looking better.

If I ignore ‘1st day of the month’ totally, then also the long trade looks best (9:30-11:00).

First I will have to do some homework before knowing what to do on the ‘1st day of the month’.

So, no trade today.