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No gap, IB is short with extreme values and price is below prior day low.
I haven’t really figured out the extreme values. When I try to find a trade with these values, both systems give me nothing good to trade (best option was a long trade 1100-1200 based on 5 trades only).
Today FDAX opened with an up gap, which didn’t close before 9:30. Yesterday was a red day.
This gives 11 trades with 82% winners, but only 98 points which is not enough. Also, when I look at those 11 trades in detail, these don’t match the other filters that could be applied today.
So, no trade.
On the side, I keep an eye on Rocco Grafe's technical analyses on the DAX. It has nothing to do with my journal, but he has an interesting article here (just translate it to English)
Today FDAX opened in prior day HL range. IB is short, previous days green + red.
The old system gives a nice short trade 10:00-11:30, but the new system (supposedly more accurate?!?) doesn’t really support it.
Well, I guess there are always reasons not to trade While the new system (rules) is under development, I would like to see both systems telling me more or less the same thing. So, no trade today.
Today FDAX opened again with a down gap, which was closed during IB.
If price @9:30 is inside prior day HL (means IB long), only 11 trades remain with a win% of 73 with a 105 points. The win% as well as the points are not enough for a trade.
If price @9:30 is below prior day HL, only 8 trades remain with a win% of 75 with a 158 points. The win% is not enough for a trade, about the points I'm not sure yet. Filtering down on IB long would not give enough historical trades to base a trade on.
I started following my new system. It's not ready for all days/exceptions, but for the most common situations it is.
Today FDAX opened in prior day HL range. IB OC is long and closed inside prior day HL range.
For a short IB there would have been a good (long 9:30) trade. The IB was short, but turned long in the last minutes. For a long IB the trades don’t look bad, but not good enough. One could think, that price start moving up just before 9:30 and therefor the long trade could have been taken, but that’s not part of the statistics.
Today FDAX opened with an up gap, which didn’t close during IB. IB OC is short.
Not looking good for a trade.
We added the FESX data to the system yesterday. Haven't done manual testing yet, but in the end, all we need are statistics for a higher probability for good trades. Today it looks ok for a 11:00-12:00 long trade, but I'll only be watching.
While the new system (rules) is under development, I would like to see both systems telling me more or less the same thing. So, no trade today.