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Rogue MNQ 2/21 Journey


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Rogue MNQ 2/21 Journey

  #11 (permalink)
 
RogueJoules's Avatar
 RogueJoules 
Portland , OR
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate
Trading: MNQ , MES
Posts: 42 since Jan 2021
Thanks Given: 48
Thanks Received: 49

This is my 3rd week recap of using Tradovate, SIM. Ultimately for the week I locked in 55.48%. I didn't do the recommended recording of all the trades because I feel using the simulated part of the equation is hard to justify. However I did see the value of doing it when I kept my trade count low. For the week it says 283 trades. Im guessing I scaled in and out of 90+.

For Friday I seemed to be on point, locking in 65% from about 11-15 scaled trades. Definitely attribute some of the success to the TPO charts. I wish I would of watched the most recent webinar live but I caught the recap. Explained/ confirmed some details I was starting to uncover. I highly recommend others that are new or haven't had access to TPO to watch it.

Also tinkering with intraday crossover signals but its more on me to piece it together with time of day & other variables. As far as the stop loss conundrum goes, based on last weeks volatility; I went naked with zero protection. Obviously Id get margin tap if I wasnt careful in real life. So by friday afternoon I felt confident to jump in for power hour on my live account. Well I was successful on all 5 trades. I greedily entered a fifth trade but sensed the setup wasn't materializing to collect the target I was aiming for. So I exited barely positive to end the rough week on a high note. When I went live with real money on the line, I couldn't risk not having a stop loss. So adjusted it on the fly based on my comfort level. It ranged from 15-20pts on Friday afternoon. Ideally Id like to keep it at 7-12pts but last week was insane.

So 5 for 5 in 25mins, Of those - 3 were perfect in keeping my risk exposure to a minimum. Under 4 mins & collecting 20-25pts.

Goal going forward is to lock in 60% or more weekly, maintain confidence in entries to capture the bigger move. Translation - have patience for the 30-60 pt moves. To overshadow the losses/fees. Im sure eventually these big volatility sweeps will end but until then I want my mind & net ready to collect.

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  #12 (permalink)
 
RogueJoules's Avatar
 RogueJoules 
Portland , OR
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate
Trading: MNQ , MES
Posts: 42 since Jan 2021
Thanks Given: 48
Thanks Received: 49

What a week! I finished Thursday feeling like I had finally made a break through. WAS on track to hit my goal of +60% positive. Along came Friday , traded before 10am again because apparently digging a hole is my thing to warm up.... wait wtf?!

So Monday took me all day to fix morning errors & get positive with 68% locked in thru 32 trades.
Tuesday my best day at 76% . I was barely even at 10am. But by 11:05 I was done for the day. Hit my goal after 17 trades with an average of 2 mins.
WED - 31 trades , tried to stay in longer with an avg of 12 mins, ended with my Goal hit around 1pm at 64%. Traded too early again. But only took 4 hrs to correct.
THURS- 25 trades- 60% positive - AVG time 4mins. Made a hole before 10am. Hit my goal by 10:55am

FRI- Major hole before 10am, couldn't recover because I was emotionally ignoring charts & blindly pepper spraying entries due to the insane volatility.

During the first 20 mins of 3/5 Friday, my "gut" was like you might want to just watch. Play the cash is position role. But after 4 days of confidence building, You know I was already digging & said nonsense my goal to me is only valid if I trade all 5 days in a row. Like some sort of imaginary validation trophy to pat myself on the back.
When in reality had I had the experience I now know sitting on my hands or waiting on days like Friday would of been just as rewarding for the psychological bank.

Goal is to maintain 60% average weekly. Holding steady at 55%
Avoid going against trends on sessions like last week, scalping wicks will blow me up.

Really need to sit on my hands until 10:05am going forward.
Accept that patiently cross referencing the different perspectives in order to throw the most efficient net for my targets is the best way for me to maintain sustainable results.
Heres 2 shots for March hall of fame & wall of shame in SIM accounts

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  #13 (permalink)
 
Tymbeline's Avatar
 Tymbeline 
Leeds UK
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate
Broker: Tradovate
Trading: MES, MNQ
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 647 since Apr 2015
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RogueJoules View Post
Goal going forward is to lock in 60% or more weekly


I have a question, then (and please don't take it the wrong way: absolutely no impoliteness or criticism is implied at all!): why do you think it might be that many/most seasoned old pro's, some of them trading successfully for decades, are very happy to make a steady-ish 6% per month - which would double an account in a year, with compounding only once a month - while your own goal is to lock in 60% or more weekly?

It's a hugely striking disparity in aspiration, don't you think?

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  #14 (permalink)
 
RogueJoules's Avatar
 RogueJoules 
Portland , OR
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate
Trading: MNQ , MES
Posts: 42 since Jan 2021
Thanks Given: 48
Thanks Received: 49

Yes & No , depending on the context of said 60%.

I m merely trying to lock in 60% of my trades as being profitable. While some of those might only be 6% gains.
Looking at it as a volume risk management business. If Im able to be profitable on 51% & minimize the damage on 49% then I should survive.
I appreciate the constructive criticism ; I maybe truly reaching too far. Im just going by what Ive picked up from testing the different prop firms. As Id like to try & be funded once I feel like Im ready to play jump rope with their business model again.

Seems like its within reach , if I can stay disciplined.

All ears to whats a reasonable target for newbies to work towards then to scale up to? Ive heard 40% tossed around before, but that was in options land I thought?

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  #15 (permalink)
 
RogueJoules's Avatar
 RogueJoules 
Portland , OR
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate
Trading: MNQ , MES
Posts: 42 since Jan 2021
Thanks Given: 48
Thanks Received: 49

Haven't done my due diligence to recap last weeks performance. As somewhat expected for a 1 yo new trader, I broke my unwritten rules & went boom! I was aware of using stop losses & making daily profit goals. However those only work if you adhere to them. So Wednesday I decided to trade live because I felt the paper trading wasnt giving me the full weight of the challenge. Despite having mixed results I was over trading in the simulation. Trading real money did force me to be more calculated. Wednesday I failed because I was trying to force trades around a time constraint. Ended flat.
Thursday I hit my goal & sat on my hands!
Friday... I hit my goal, but was sadly greedy & kept adjusting my loss. Until it was too late.

So what did I learn? To take a break after wins or losses evaluate all levels of myself & targets/charts.

Thankfully its a tiny amount but still burns. Hilariously my Saturday night epiphany was why isn't there daily profit trigger lock outs?!

Upon loogling tradovate features I found there is such a glorious thing as profit trigger lockout. I never heard anybody mention it before which is strange , because I suspect it could be really helpful for those that are disciplined but need an extra layer of insurance. Especially after a few too many victory laps. So that's officially enabled. Hoping they allow traders to customize it. Hit a morning goal & then be locked out until 2:30-3pm or even just a 30 min/1hour break would be perfect for myself & many others I suspect. Considering most of us are our own worst nightmare at times.

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  #16 (permalink)
 
RogueJoules's Avatar
 RogueJoules 
Portland , OR
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate
Trading: MNQ , MES
Posts: 42 since Jan 2021
Thanks Given: 48
Thanks Received: 49

Well I managed to hit my weekly goal in demo land. Thru rest & daily profit trigger lockouts. After the prior weeks mental toll, I decided to just observe & not touch futures on Monday. I ended up trading on Tuesday , wed & Friday. Took on 45 trades total, managed to lock in 34 for profit. Avg time of 5 mins but my losing trades Im waiting longer for various reasons on average an extra 2-3 mins of pain/exposure. I desperately need to accept being wrong instead of waiting for pain to tell me to move on. Especially on Friday, as again I started naively attacking with poor vision of the real direction.
8:35am hits Im exposed & flush! the first 9 out of 11 as losses. Avg time on those over 12 mins - Stop losses were adjusted when clear direction was being set up. Luckily by 9:02am I analyze the data properly , I enter "flow" & exit about 9:43am. Netting 14 of my last 15 trades. Locking in an ugly 60% where the 40% that were negative I stayed hoping/exposed for an extra 3mins on Friday. I know patience is vital but if pain threshold for my style is higher it honestly worries me in the long run. I must get better about waiting for MY setups, for optimal entries.

75% of my trades were profitable this week. Analyzing overnight action by 815am ish, Stalking its movement from 825 on.
3/16 - 100% off 8 total trades - waited until 938
3/17- 90% off 11 total trades- waited until 905
3/19 - 60% - 26 total trades - waited.... shocker, until 8:29am too early! Didn't close out properly, allowed position to stay trapped. Accepted that I was wrong about that inflection point, was able to quickly reset & stay with the trend. Smartly avoided 9:26-9:31 action.

Live by the scalp flow ,die by the scalp. Less is more for me at least.

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  #17 (permalink)
 
RogueJoules's Avatar
 RogueJoules 
Portland , OR
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate
Trading: MNQ , MES
Posts: 42 since Jan 2021
Thanks Given: 48
Thanks Received: 49

Well what a week to practice! I realized my efforts to minimize trade time is a losing battle, no matter the context. That path is one that leads to consistent forced trades. For me it was prioritizing the wrong thing to focus on. But I do acknowledge it as part of the risk management puzzle to grow & evolve. Essentially made me feel more rushed. When I know when real money is at risk I ll be plenty rushed to reduce exposure at certain times.
For me its more about my entries & exits with exposure time/size being critical too but secondary. As I wont have unlimited bullets, nets or J Pows in my backpack waiting to hit print.

So, Monday & Tuesday I stuck to my rules. Locked in 77% of the 35 trades using 70 total contracts in the MNQ. Had a manageable low draw down & timing was acceptable for my scalps. Didn't trade until 933 & 907am on Tuesday. Profit triggers hit, locked out.

Enter Wednesday. I learned the hard way on why to close out all orders after taking a 5 pt scalp premarket. I thought I had flattened everything to sit on my hands before grabbing coffee. Well arrogant me on very small 5 day streak, decides I can make this 1 contract happen. Market said not today pal! Despite realizing my error , I added on & quickly over drafted my mental bank. Also I think after taking the first big loss, I subconsciously kept attacking with the same bias. To collect some sort of mental win.
Since Im practicing I removed all risk management tools, & continued to get chopped up. Blowing up my progress & becoming the most disgusted Ive been with myself in a long time. Confidence was shot & bled dry. Ill take a break I said, & went back swinging & failing Thursday morning. Unable to adapt to the chop trends or just stay the fuck out! Lesson learned. Id mention stats but maybe 30% win rate , & a house payment worth of fees. Basically blown up, wrecked.

Took my normal afternoon break/walk the dog routine. Still telling myself & a close friend Ill take a break. while trying to be humble & accept my losses & start fresh.
I foolishly return at 2:55pm on thursday & found my rhythm. Still pepper spraying orders in the last hour, keeping size to less than 6 at all times regardless of winning or losing. Small victory lap from 87% off 49 trades after 36 hours of pain train.

Friday- Still haven't turned on my profit trigger or other risk management tools. By 9:47 I had overshot my daily goal off 11 trades , 100% win rate. Sat on my hands for 15 mins & jumped back in a little after 10am. By 10:53 I doubled it. Profitable trades on 20 of 21 trades , using 64 contracts total.
Id end it here but thatd be lie, Im being honest to this platform to better myself & maybe others. As well as soak up any other valuable knowledge shared. I jumped back in before the dog walk, gave it all back within 20 mins (11:22). By 11:47 I regained it all back minus more fees. 32 trades total with a 87% profitable.
Took a break, came back in at 3:30. Whats this 150pt rally?! Not on my watch. Proceeded to get ran over twice
Account would of been blown up multiple times this last week.

I fully realize why mental capital is so important now & the awesome risk management tools to protect us from ourselves. Once again for me at least, less trading is more in every aspect of this journey. Limits are back on & ready to be patient

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  #18 (permalink)
 
RogueJoules's Avatar
 RogueJoules 
Portland , OR
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate
Trading: MNQ , MES
Posts: 42 since Jan 2021
Thanks Given: 48
Thanks Received: 49

Glad the sites back up & safe. Apparently was trying to upload in middle of the chaos on Sunday. Basically last week was my first week using a real live cash account after dabbling with sims/prop demos for 3.5 months. I definitely believe that sim trading is a necessary tool to start the process safely
but doesn't fully pressure test an individual. Ive tried matching my demo to my live account but the demo hasnt kept me honest in the sense that I just end up resetting different amounts to start with, usually after a bad pain train. Ended up starting slightly bigger to give me the wiggle/breathing room to capture the moves & obviously on my cash account I had to reduce my entry to 1 at time instead of the dicey 2 at a time. Some other necessary variables I had to adjust in order to survive longer with the MNQ.

With the exception of being caught in the tradovate/CQG issues on thursday I did ok. Still jumping in too early at times but adapting to what the market is offering each day.


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  #19 (permalink)
 
RogueJoules's Avatar
 RogueJoules 
Portland , OR
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate
Trading: MNQ , MES
Posts: 42 since Jan 2021
Thanks Given: 48
Thanks Received: 49

Live account- 2nd green week for my tiny MNQ fishing boat with tradovate. I certainly still have a lot to learn. ie avoiding the time of day that is most uncertain. See weekly pic below, my mouse is highlighting the time of day for me to avoid/wait for better direction. This where my love hate relationship with TPO charts starts. Im not just relying on them, but Ive realized I need to be-careful because its creating a premature bias with my entries. Perfect example is Friday, I saw the AH prints, & jumped in at 730am right before the dump into 13648.50. I held on & continued to add falling knives. Added my max of 4 lots once it got back into 660s. This was my longest trade of the week, that also included the most drawdown/ most stress. I was targeting 750,760 , 780 & 13800. By 11:37 I was mentally wore out. Closed the trade to protect my gains. Like clockwork, bulls regained momentum & my targets were reached with me on the sidelines.
C'est la vie.

Another observation this week for other new traders, avoid your birthday until you have a solid foundation. Its been a solid year of soaking up the markets & not being profitable. Stress is high based on other personal variables too. So Monday (bday) I was a mess way too aggressive. My other pic is showcasing the trades /fees I racked up Monday & Tuesday. Luckily I settled down into a nice zone Id like to stay in. Wont always be targeting $400 a day but I have the time to practice I might as well aim high. Finishing up my victory lap, Ill say not bad for a "slow" week.

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  #20 (permalink)
 
RogueJoules's Avatar
 RogueJoules 
Portland , OR
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate
Trading: MNQ , MES
Posts: 42 since Jan 2021
Thanks Given: 48
Thanks Received: 49


After hitting my daily goal on Monday the week turned into a mess for me. I was trying to force trades around appointments I had on Tuesday & Wednesday. & because I removed daily/weekly loss lockout trigger I over traded to the point of probably buying a round trip airline ticket worth of fees. On the positive side of things I realize the importance of being disciplined & to not allow 1 day to potentially ruin a week or more of progress. Luckily by Thursday & Friday I was able to repair some of the damage but still a big L for the week. A very sad 59% were profitable. Did not control my losses & started to bleed by paper-cuts too.

I think part of this weeks failure was last weeks fallacy of reaching too high for my current skill level. So because of the previous weeks performance I was pushing too hard & too fast, too large of swings for the short tight ranges we stayed in for a few of the days. So Ill lower the daily goal probably 25% & turn on all the lockout protection to give me a reasonable but safer wiggle room to learn from. Also for me to avoid trading on days with scheduling conflicts.

Greed slowly killing me , so I need to take my crumbs & wait for the next set up. Ideally just trade 10-1030 & 330-4. Since that's when I seem to connect the dots & flow with the trends.

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