4-5-12 study

I'm going to start the studies closer to the London open and try to go into the the RTH to 11am. So trading hours
130am to 11am cst. Work on patience and not trading. Look for the strategic entries.

I'm moving the trade management to 15 tick targets on all trades. No switching between trend / countertrend




Trade 1

134am Yesterday was a huge selloff and the overnight seemed to be a mild corrective bounce.
214am The bears come with London and the market is in transition... I wait
235 The bears work their way down to the vwap and a wick forms up at the try. Buy Limit 817.3. 1 tick from
bottom
244 Filled @ 817.3
246 +6
253 +12 / BE+2....... ************Note the vwap is a powerful level*********************


+15



Trade 2

300 sell limit on perceived failure. filled @ 818.9
309 Target hit


+15
Finally an easy one



Trade 3


311 Price has centered above MA, POC and yesterday mid-line..... official chop
318 Wasn't chop for long!! ha Price closes below VWAP with volume
332 test of bullish TL .... and hammered .... this thing is bearish strong

*******************note - On hindsight.
Yesterday was was large bear run
Bounce was to POC / vwap area and retraced deep to 76%... sign 1
Test of high failed and on third attempt ,came up just short.... sign 2
I should have been all in here, short, as it then broke down hard.******************************************

335 attempting to leave Value Area
342 Blind Buy Limit order 1 tick below Yesterday Low with tight stop @ 813.1.... Looking for a bounce of the test
350 filled at price.... I was definitely NOT the only order there!! wow... instantly +12 / BE +2
400 target hit

+15

big volume hit on that last trade Note*********************remember this entry!!!****************


Trade 4


402 should be a test of that low...
410 PRice gets near MA ......Sell Limit 815.4
421 not filled
425 Can't start guessing on the bottom... I wait
443 Strong move down with Volume / I hesitate to fade any of this
609 just rolling data quickly and observing PA now.... passed on several fades ******need to work on Trend
entries****
623 bulls coming in now ..... I need to pace myself and play these larger swings ...
723 Bounce off vwap again... fascinating*********************
830 I'm toast

$300 / 139.14 split


I'm getting a handle on Market Profile.
I'm learning to observe volume to see if it supports market moves.
I need to learn more about the big picture.

Good learning day.

tderrick 

4-5-12 study

I seem some range plays and I see trend fading on the charts....where are the trend trades we talked about....just asking....

still nice trading...way to go....

Will get back to ya, PW.... It's Vet day on the farm... Uggghhhh .. Nothing like paying someone to stand with me in the hot Tennessee sun and give shots to huge critters!!! Woo hoo


Aj

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Monday 4-9-12 Study

I stayed up late at the studio practicing last nite. Now there is a big storm outside, so I'm going to let it
blow over before I drive home this morning.

Let's practice more!!!


Thursday was a big selling day, Friday was Good Friday. So here we are at Monday.
Euro Markets are closed so this may be slow...

Whoooooaaaaa.... I see the biggest opening gap I have ever seen.... 7ish points down to start the
Sunday evening session. Obviously Price is trying to close a bit, but it ain't closing all that.
What could have cause a gap like that?

Bad data??? hmmmmmmm ... I'll ask around the nexusfi.com (formerly BMT)



Trade 1

118am We have to try and fill this gap right? Going long and next PB
209am The bears come in with London w/ little volume support
251 Price pulls up close to vwap / Buy Limit @ 799.6 / Low liquidity, this will be a tough fill
257 Not filled / price pauses at MA / Order cancelled / volume hit on the Bull bounce
320 HH and small PB at break of high / Buy Stop Limit @ 801.2 on continuation
410 Filled @ price an hour later!!!! wow this is slow PA with Europe out
419 +11 / BE+2
445 BIg heat.... almost Stopped Out
447 Scratch that .... stopped out

+1



Trade 2



448 Price reaches 23.6% of Gap and is rejected hard with no volume ... strange
506 Buy Limit @ 799.9
516 Well, i can tell Europe is out of the equation today / Liquidity still sparse / Let's hope the Yanks save the day
543 Order filled @ price
548 Stopped out hard

-6

**********************Not a big enough exhaustion bar*******************



Trade 3


606 OK ... here comes some volume....
611 Buy Limit @ 798.5 at bottom of huge 5min wick... this may be the last chance for the bulls
613 Not filled / order cancelled
635 Sell Limit @ 801.1..... changing market bias to short.... need to gamble a bit more and cut down on the no fills.
636 Two people influenced this entry - @monpere who enters on the swing bar and places the stop 1 tick
above the wick and @Gabriyele, who has a cool analogy of level bar bodies (not wicks) as elevator floors with
traders getting on and off. ... also, with the stop above the wick... I will try more of this.
644 Filled @ price / stop 1 tick above wick
652 +12 / BE +2
701 Target Filled!! woo hoo.... what a cool strategy yes... yess.........

+15



Trade 4

702 Confused on Market State... Must Wait....... hey, that's kind of a saying ... lol... kinda like, If it doesn't fit, you must
acquit.... I think I'm spending too much time alone.... ha!!
742 Hey ... I may make it into some RTH today... nice...





---------------------------------------- Break To Drive Home-----------------------------------

818 US open approaches / No clear winner in PA / Could be wick trading mania
814 Limit Sell @ 801.2
815 Filled @ Price
820 Target hit

+15



Trade 5

824 Buy Limit 799.1
826 Order cancelled ... too close to open
841 Sell Limit @ 802.5
845 Moved to 802
850 Order Cancelled
855 Filled @ Buy Limit 799.1
900 Target Hit

+15


Trade 6

905 Sell Limit @ 801.2
906 Touched / not filled arrrghhhhh... price moves as expected
909 order cancelled




OK, I have to turn in....

What ever I made will go to the bills account. I'll add up later

Good learning sessions

Monday 4-30-12 Study


I've reloaded more current Replay Data. I feel live trading is eminent, so I will only practice on the
most recent data.

I have set up my VPS so my trade orders will be safe from my hillbilly internet connection.
I'll spend a month or two getting extremely comfortable with the Remote Desktop gag and shaking out any bugs.


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


These are my first test trades on the VPS . The rig is running a bit sluggish, but I'm pleased it's running
at all. I'll hone it in.

There was a huge bull run on Friday's Trading and I come to the table with PA in consolidation as usual.

I will try and resist the countertrend fades and just trade the perceived trend strength.



Trade 1

1250am I place a blind Sell Limit order 1 tick above the high, expecting a test and hard PB. I've seen it so many times, I might as well just trade it.

118 am Order filled @ price
144 +4
206 +9 with Volume … I'm golden.
210 +11
214 Target filled

I was messing with so much techno junk that I held the trade right through the London open. … I was lucky.

+15 That initial test of the day on the high is most always a PB. A blind trade … yes!!

. I'm learning.



Trade 2

222am sell limit @ 826.3 …. 1 tick below wick
225 Filled @ price
255 Target hit


+15



Trade 3


300 Sell Limit @ 825.1 / 1 tick below wick
308 Volume is with bears on these strong moves down, so I should think short.
322 Order filled !
331 Target hit

+15



Trade 4


342 This is the first time I have ever tried this. Re-entry in the same location - It just seems to be a strong area.
343 Sell Limit 825.1 / all the MA's and the VWAP are getting tight in this area / it will blow up soon.
405 Order filled @ price
413 Target hit

+15 Those were the 4 easiest trades I have ever taken … these entry rules take the stress out… tight stops above the
wicks - no worries - just enter on large PB wicks. I love it!!!

More Data…. More data!!! this is too good to be true…. There must be a draw down day sooner or later…and
I'm going to find it.


Trade 5


423 this thing is trying to blow out the bottom .. I'm tempted to counter trend these.. but I won't
445 I'm going in again … same entry …Sell Limit @ 825.1… Why not 3 in a row?
505 Boom … break down … Hanging on the order for a bit.
551 Price moves on … Order cancelled .. no miracle Hat trick
621 Crap … I dozed off and missed a great entry… Time to call it… Big session tomorrow


$300 for bills
$285.60 for the account

An excellent day for the method. Maybe this VPS rig is bringing me luck ...

I'll post the chart in the next post, I have to send it from the VPS server.

My best work to date.

Tuesday 5-1-12 Study


Monday was a selling day and appears there is still some selling pressure.

I'm moving back to treating Trend and CounterTrend trades with different Price targets. It just makes sense.
Counter trend is more risky, so I will take off 10 ticks quickly. Same plan as before. I'm also putting the BE +2's back
in. My main job is to protect my money. If I only make $16 bucks on a trade, so be it.

I can't go Live again until I have all these little questions answered and nothing changes for a month.


ETH____________________________________________________________________________________


Trade 1

Counter Trend / +10 target

130am The DB setup is too hard to resist. Buy Limit @ 814.2 at bottom of channel and low of day. PA is slow so 1 tick above.
140am Filled at price / stop tightened up a bit
200 +5
202 Target Hit


+10


Trade 2


With Trend / +15 target

206 Sell Limit @ 815.3
307 Price 1 tick away
323 Price edges up 1 tick away .. arrrghhh
326 oh!! ORder filled at price. and…….. big heat.
332 +2 …some relief, but bulls are strong
346 +3 this is a lonnnnnnggggggg trade…
352 +4 I may rethink this Overnight trading gag… hmmmm
355 Price is over all MA's / it will blow soon. +2
406 DOM is loaded to sell / The next volume hit will signal the direction +6
444 +11 Volume is stupid thin … I don't know why its so slow.
450 Target Hit

Thank you, Lord !!

+15

***********Price touched Yesterday's Low to the tick / I thought about moving the target, but chickened out.
This is always a good target***********************************


Ahhhh , just looked up the news / Lot's of Euro banks on holiday. That explains it.
The yanks will kick up the party a bit.



Trade 3

CounterTrend +10 Target

518 Buy Limit @ 813.4 / one tick below Yesterday's Low
519 Volume came in with the selling / this trade is dangerous
521 filled with big heat @ price
533 +1 and alive …ohhhh +4….. can't move stop
540 +8 / BE +2 ohhh target filled

+10

in the zone.. yes.



Trade 4

547 Price bounces hard off the key level of Yesterdays Low. Bulls are here. Transition time, I think
630 Bulls seem to have control…. just waiting
701 Failed break out pulls back … looking for long entry near vwap
735 Buy Limit @ vwap 815.1
807 Filled @ price and taking heat
816 US open pending …. hope to lock in some profit soon.
828 hammered by pre open spike

- 5

*******************************Inside Trade / Danger****************************************





RTH__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Trade 5


831 Time to do battle with big wicks
835 Buy Limit @ 813.4 / Not filled
839 Sell Limit @ 816
840 filled @ price
841 Target hit

+10


Trade 6

850 Buy Limit @ 813 on test of low
852 Filled @ Price
852 Target hit

+10


This method is NUTS!!! I love it


Trade 7

900 Wow huge news spike on this thing ***************** ISN Manufacturing PMI ***********************
905 One of the largest bars I have ever seen in TF… Looks like oil
907 slowing down …looking to fade
913 Sell Limit @ 822.8
917 Filled @ price …and……………..crushed
918 Stopped out………Bulls a bit too strong… lol

-5
************************ Wait for price to get to Significant Resistance area**************************

Trade 8

925 Sell Limit @ 824.9 at Yesterdays close
928 filled
932 Stopped out


-5 Well, damn…. Chasing the fade.

*********************************Let's Try waiting For A Red Bar********************************


Trade 9

937 OK a red bar Sell Limit @ 826.1
940 Stopped Out

-5

********************************** Let's wait for a bigger red bar AND a more significant SR area****************


Trade 10

945 Sell Limit @ 827.1
950 filled
1005 Target Hit

+10

I'm not sure it that was persistence or stupidity. …either way, it showed my weakness - entering in strong trends.
****************New Rule - On strong breakouts, only enter With Trend until price gets to Major SR *************


Trade 11

1044 Looks like price is resting into consolidation… just hanging until my trading hours are finished
130a-11a CST

It looks like my method is geared for trading ranges. I need to find a way to adapt it to strong trends, or just
wait until the dust settles. Perhaps the later.

1101 trading day finished


ETH = $285.60
RTH = $128.40

$300 for bills
$114 for the account

I felt like I traded badly, but I look at the P&L and it looks similar. Making money on an off day. I like that.
This is the first time in a while I traded my allotted trading hours. I need to do it more for mental conditioning.
I do FF the Replay to as much as 4X to get to the end of a bar or to get to a new set up area, then slow to normal speed.
My time is too precious right now.

I good learning day. I felt the range of emotions from invincibility to chasing and I survived

Wednesday 5-2-12 Replay study

Today is a study in reading 5min bars, bar by bar. 15 tick targets in all direction with +2 BE at 12.
No Large Time frame. No market / trend bias. My world today is the 5 min chart . ETH 130am to 830 am CST


Trade 1

110am Buy Limit filled at 813.4 / Stop below vwap


+15


Trade 2

230 Sell Limit filled @ 814.5


+15


Trade 3

247 Strong move down .. waiting
258 Buy limit @ 810.7 …. filled …..***********fade justified by edge formation***********

+15


Trade 4

333 Buy limit in same place 810.7 …… one more visit, please
404 Filled!! crazy lucky
414 target hit … wow

+15

I thought price may run after this double bottom, but I'm sticking to my 15 tick targets.

It seems this method works best is rangy consolidation areas. So I will let the big break outs run to
the next range.


Trade 5

425 Price came down for a third visit. I was not expecting that.
429 Weird PA…. I wait. 810.7 hit for third time…. I can't enter again…Bears want to move down
442 No, no … I will NOT play a BO short…. I know my game… I will play it
459 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

OK, I'm getting tired.. I missed two winning entries in a row.


$300 for bills
285.60 for the account.

It was easy this time.

More in the morning

Thursday 5-3-12 Replay Study

Well, the time is near. Live trading is right around the corner. As soon as my VPS is off it's trail period, I will
be incurring cost. I, at the very least, need to offset this cost with making money trading. It's time to start
treating this gig as a part time job. I've proven to myself I can make money at this. It's only my emotions
in the way now.

I'll be studying Market Replay until the end of next month. Then I'll be pulling the trigger on some live trades.

My goals are small to start.

1.) Recoup my VPS monthly fee. $80 / …c'mon

2.) Earn a little money each trading day and split it with the trading account. A little earning, a little saving.
Let's say $300 / $150 stop loss, just to get used to combat.

So, as If I weren't focused enough, (my wife thinks I've lost my mind ) I'm taking it up one more notch in intensity.
I'll make my target / loss and move to the next replay day. The final week or two, I will practice Live Sim at the actual
trading times and get a routine down.

Let's do this thing I have a house to pay off
________________________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________________________


Trade 1

1223am The game is in question…. I wait
1257 Market thin…can't enter
135 Looking back at the news releases… this was a big news day. Market waiting for releases + FOMC
139 Very narrow range yesterday…. narrowing targets and stops
214 London brings some action
218 sell limit @ 817
231 Filled
237 Target hit

+12
a good trade …. bouncing off Yesterdays high


Trade 2

239 Blind entry on bounce of VWAP / ema20 confluence / Sell Limit @ 815.7 / filled quickly
246 Stop tightened / slight volume rise on bull moves
256 target hit

+12

2 for 2 blind trade entries…. this week



Trade 3

302 Potential DT / hesitate to short
306 Test of R1 / Y-high probable…… Note****** the test of R1 would complete a fib forecast on 30min chart****


***********************Note--- The change to smaller targets on narrow range days appears to work ****************

323 ahhhhhhh! The DT happened, I chickened out on the re-entry this time. That would have been the day.
344 test of R1 appears to be failing
357 Buy Limit 814.5 / hoping for a range bounce / not filled


******************Note - Let's try fading those strong bars quickly with Market orders and taking BE quickly--
take all that is given with tight trailing stop***********************************

426 chop right on the MA's …. I wait
526 this thing is going to flounder all the way to news…. arrgghhhhhh
533 ahhh… there is the test of R1 …the universe is complete
536 sell limit 818 *******Blind limit Order at R1 would have worked*******************************
553 c'mon DT
645 filled
654 target hit

+12


Daily goal hit….

OK … Let's do this about 30 more times

Friday 5-4-12 Replay Study

Yesterday was a big sell off.
I'm going to try entering on the body of the exhaustion bar and putting stop 1 tick above wick today.
A borrowed method.


Trade 1

115 Looks like we're long… waiting for PB to VWAP… Trailing Buy Limit Order on top of swap
210 Finally filled @ 805.4 / Moving target just below Y-vwap / 20 tick target
213 +12 / BE+2

Target Hit

+20



Trade 2

221 Sell Limit @ 807.1 / body of entry bar / Stop 1 tick above wick
223 target just above S1
225 order filled
306 stop lowered to common swing high point

+ 25 ish


Trade 3

347 Quick entry long with wick trade
353 +12 / BE+1


+15

I Want to trade longer today …. I'll keep on until I lose one


Trade 4

432 Sell Limit filled @ 806.6 / Wick trade
453 moved to BE+1 / inside trades make me nervous
502 BE +5

+5


Trade 5

504 Price over all MA's … must wait
540 Looking for 1 more entry
545 Price BO



************************Note ---- The last two trade could have been summed with a trade
from the bounce of S1 to a test of the high--- Think bigger targets. / SR based***********************

548 Buy Stop on BO 808.3
549 Target top of CVA / 25 ish
556 Filled / stop below small transition bar.
600 +12 / BE +2
610 BE+5


+5……………….. realized I was at some Fib SR and tightened stop last minute.
Good exit…. Big bounce off 50%fib and CP on 30 min chart.

"""""" You Never Go Broke Taking A Profit""""""""



Trade 6

625 The last Pivot was like a brick wall… saw it in the nick of time
630 Buy Stop 807.7

stopped out
-4

that was a silly entry



Trade 7

638 Buy Limit 807.2
643 Filled and stopped out

-5


Man… seriously lost focus there at the end.

I give.