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Hey Jeff,
I find it hard to tell when its a pullback or a break down. Like Cunparis
this morning I was looking at going long since the market ran up so fast
I was looking for the pullback at the 50 ema not the break down. Any hints
on how to tell when its a pullback verses a break down?
Skid
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
As they say, "every moment in the market is unique" so I'm not sure there is a general rule. But...... we can look at what happened this morning.
Besides my 10 range bar trading chart and my 15 range bar anchor chart I keep a 5 minute chart up with support and resistance on it. You've got to know where these levels are. You'll notice I also have drawn the globex high/low and the previous days high/low. The reason you've got to know these numbers is that the market WILL test these numbers. You don't know when but it will.
So, right out of the gate you get a gap fill. You've got to watch for these, especially on Tues, Wed and Thur. You can get some free info at the Gap Guy.com. His name is Andrews. Anyway, yesterday's close was important to know. Then after the news the market goes right to R1 and stops. A couple of minutes later it takes another shot at it and gets rejected again. So, you've got a double top right at major resistance. Now, you're thinking short. Not long. You can jump on this like I did this morning or sometimes I wait for the market to put in a lower high like it did at 7:30 PST then jump on it. Matter of fact you could have put in a sell/stop just below the swing low and let the market take you in or sell on the 50% retrace like I did this morning. I guess I was feeling a little frisky this morning because I took the more aggressive trades.
Now, check out the swing low at 7:20.... where did it stop? Exactly at the Daily Pivot. If you know where these points are you can really pay attention to how the market reacts at these points. It looked like the market was going to respect the pivot but once it broke all hell broke loose. I know that Big Mike likes the Murrey Math but...... I think you can see why I like the classic pivots. These are the points that most people are watching and sometimes it doesn't pay to be doing some other thing. Just my opinion. Also, on most days if support of resistance breaks no need to fret it'll be right back to test it soon enough so jump in on the retest from the other direction.
So.... that's what I look at. Hope that helps, Jeff
Don't trade during news. It's good to STAND ASIDE FOR NEWS about 10 or so minutes each side. So if there is news @7 at 6:50 make sure you are flat and don't resume trading until about 10 after.
I've attached 3 charts, 2 are trades I took and 1 was a setup I was looking for but got distracted or something. For some reason I was real hesitant today which is unfortunate because there were setups everywhere. The first trade was on 6C and was perfect. The second trade was on 6B and I did not wait for my profit target. The third setup was on CL and was an easy scalp but I was distracted or didn't pay attention. I don't know.
How do you get the red "broken" or "dash" lines on Panels 1 and Panel 2 (OBV) of your chart setup ? There is no such line setting in the OBV indy. A cross on this line upward/downward confirms your entry. Right ?
I picked this up off that forexfactory thread where feb2865 referred to a 20/20 rule. Using a 20 tick target and 20 tick stop loss. I do things slightly different. I use a 20 tick target but my stop loss, as you can see from my charts, is based on the swing high/lows. However, I will never allow my stop loss to be more then my profit target. To me that point is huge and was something I was making a big mistake on in the past. I would initiate a trade with a 20 tick stop loss and a 20 tick profit target. However, I would try to subjectively intrepret the price action and frequently decide that the move was slowing down even while in the money. So, for example I might be in the green by 10 ticks and decide it was time to the exit. The problem with that approach is it's not sustainable for a long time because if I keep initiating trades with a 20/20 but exiting at 10 ticks of profit thus I've tilted my risk reward ratio to 2 to 1. Ultimately that leads to failure. Long story short I shoot for 20 ticks and I don't deviate from that whatsoever, which is why I'm kicking myself for that 2nd trade today.
Lol, one caveat I suppose. On CL I shoot for a 10/10ish. I just want a quick 10 tick scalp. That thing moves so quick I'd rather be in and out and move on.
I still do not understand how you draw the red lines. You said in post #220 that "So I'll draw a horizontal line the peak OBV level that conincides with the price that I'm watching for a breakout." Please explain this just one more time.
