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1:1 risk reward, and targeting win rate?


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1:1 risk reward, and targeting win rate?

  #41 (permalink)
Goomba
Sydney
 
Posts: 6 since Aug 2019
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planetkill View Post
Haha yeah I was making fun of the scammer.
The guy is marketing a low monthly profit of only 2-3k per month. At such a low amount, he is targeting some very desperate marks.

It's debatable if it's better to pay for the combines or to use that money instead to trade 1 lot micros.

-------------------
Haha, no worries all good, i was just stating my opinion.
about combines, it is good only when you as Trader know that you are consistent and profitable on week after week or month after month.

for the majority, it's not the case and blowing up account happens so often. I wasted so much capital of my own, looking back I would have paid x many times for the combine incl reset with that same capital and in exchange would have learned and earned so much from my mistakes and experience plus you get to trade with lot more capital than the one time combine fees.

Its win win situation.

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  #42 (permalink)
 dsheehan87 
Chicago IL USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES CL SB
Posts: 14 since May 2020
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planetkill View Post
Mind sharing your performance from when you started doing this to now? It is much more helpful to see the performance stats so we at least know the historical value of your advice.



I will post some stats, sure.

I can indeed win 90+% of trades (and I take a lot of trades).

I can’t show you how (because I don’t trade like most people and don’t use charts or indicators or prices or MP), I just trade the order flow (I don’t care about icebergs, flippers, breakout etc either).

But don’t let my 80-90% win rate fool you into thinking I’m a good trader. I’m a bad trader because I have no self control.

I am a time bomb always waiting to blow up. I can and will win 99% of trades one week, taking 150-250 trades (not RT contracts but trades) in a week.

But then Monday will come along, and i put a trade on, target 1 handle in the ES, the market moves against me, and instead of getting out for 4-8 ticks, I sit on it until I’m 10 handles down lol. And it’s not that my “system” is bad - I just have no self control.

Does that mean my way of trading isn’t reliable? No. It’s how locals trade and have traded even in the pit (the pit it was easier surely). If you trade like me and have discipline, you will be far better than me.

Trade like I do, but don’t lose like I do.


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  #43 (permalink)
 
Joseph Connors's Avatar
 Joseph Connors 
Colorado Springs, CO USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
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dsheehan87 View Post
I will post some stats, sure.

I can indeed win 90+% of trades (and I take a lot of trades).

I can’t show you how (because I don’t trade like most people and don’t use charts or indicators or prices or MP), I just trade the order flow (I don’t care about icebergs, flippers, breakout etc either).

But don’t let my 80-90% win rate fool you into thinking I’m a good trader. I’m a bad trader because I have no self control.

I am a time bomb always waiting to blow up. I can and will win 99% of trades one week, taking 150-250 trades (not RT contracts but trades) in a week.

But then Monday will come along, and i put a trade on, target 1 handle in the ES, the market moves against me, and instead of getting out for 4-8 ticks, I sit on it until I’m 10 handles down lol. And it’s not that my “system” is bad - I just have no self control.

Does that mean my way of trading isn’t reliable? No. It’s how locals trade and have traded even in the pit (the pit it was easier surely). If you trade like me and have discipline, you will be far better than me.

Trade like I do, but don’t lose like I do.


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Thanks for the above!

Given what you have said above, I suppose the question most people would have is: Overall, do you make or lose money?

Persistence! Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence.
Talent will not ... nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent.
Genius will not ... Unrewarded genius is almost a proverb.
Education will not ... The world is full of educated derelicts.
Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent!
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  #44 (permalink)
 
syswizard's Avatar
 syswizard 
Philadelphia PA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Multicharts
Broker: Ironbeam, Rithmic
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Posts: 344 since Jan 2019
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dsheehan87 View Post
I will post some stats, sure.
I can indeed win 90+% of trades (and I take a lot of trades).

Please do. Avg win, Avg loss, Avg Net per day, Avg # of trades/contracts per day.


dsheehan87 View Post
I can’t show you how (because I don’t trade like most people and don’t use charts or indicators or prices or MP), I just trade the order flow (I don’t care about icebergs, flippers, breakout etc either).
But don’t let my 80-90% win rate fool you into thinking I’m a good trader. I’m a bad trader because I have no self control.

You trade from the DOM/Ladder then ?


dsheehan87 View Post
I can and will win 99% of trades one week, taking 150-250 trades (not RT contracts but trades) in a week.

That win rate in the E-Minis is pretty hard to believe...unless you are spoofing like Navinder Sarao was :
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/navinder-sarao-convicted-market-manipulator-flash-crash-book-excerpt-liam-vaughan-2020-5-1029208473
He was cheating of course and I think his win rate was "only" about 80-90%.

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  #45 (permalink)
 natan1967 
Ramat Gan
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: Emini ES
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forgiven View Post
the chances of making that idea works is not good . out running the slippage , commission , and over trading will not be easy day in day out. when you fail to make it work , then you will try to filter the pull backs . you would stand a better chance using higher time frames . like when when the ES is trading above the 8 day ema on the daily and weekly charts , take all pull backs to the 8 day ema on the daily with a 5 point stop. hold it until you make 15 to 30 points. use micro contracts if your cash account will not stand a 250.00 loss. that takes care of a lot of problems in your concept. commission, slippage , over trading , being glued to a computer all day long ... ect.ect

Take it from someone who trades every day about 7 hours. This idea won't work. It simply dosent work that way. Commission, mistakes, fear, gread... All these will it your acount alive if your RR not good enough. 1:1 is too risky. Especially if u are a beginner. Don't listen to all the "online gurus". Go for normal RR and u will be ok

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  #46 (permalink)
 
forgiven's Avatar
 forgiven 
Fletcher NC
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
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natan1967 View Post
Take it from someone who trades every day about 7 hours. This idea won't work. It simply dosent work that way. Commission, mistakes, fear, gread... All these will it your acount alive if your RR not good enough. 1:1 is too risky. Especially if u are a beginner. Don't listen to all the "online gurus". Go for normal RR and u will be ok

i agree with you . why are you tell me this .

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  #47 (permalink)
GoodTrading
Loja, Ecuador
 
Posts: 36 since Jan 2022
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dsheehan87 View Post
I will post some stats, sure.

I can indeed win 90+% of trades (and I take a lot of trades).

I can’t show you how (because I don’t trade like most people and don’t use charts or indicators or prices or MP), I just trade the order flow (I don’t care about icebergs, flippers, breakout etc either).

But don’t let my 80-90% win rate fool you into thinking I’m a good trader. I’m a bad trader because I have no self control.

I am a time bomb always waiting to blow up. I can and will win 99% of trades one week, taking 150-250 trades (not RT contracts but trades) in a week.

But then Monday will come along, and i put a trade on, target 1 handle in the ES, the market moves against me, and instead of getting out for 4-8 ticks, I sit on it until I’m 10 handles down lol. And it’s not that my “system” is bad - I just have no self control.

Does that mean my way of trading isn’t reliable? No. It’s how locals trade and have traded even in the pit (the pit it was easier surely). If you trade like me and have discipline, you will be far better than me.

Trade like I do, but don’t lose like I do.


Sent using the nexusfi.com mobile app

I used to trade off the order flow scalping all day with around 80%-90% win rate but it can get pretty draining. My current strategy is just to put in a trade in the morning such as here with a stop and then go fishing and close the trade out at 3 pm when I come back.


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  #48 (permalink)
 
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 chipwitch 
Nashville, TN
 
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Broker: NinjaTrader, Continuum Data
Trading: MES for now... baby steps
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GoodTrading View Post
I used to trade off the order flow scalping all day with around 80%-90% win rate but it can get pretty draining. My current strategy is just to put in a trade in the morning such as here with a stop and then go fishing and close the trade out at 3 pm when I come back.


These are unprecedented times.

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  #49 (permalink)
GoodTrading
Loja, Ecuador
 
Posts: 36 since Jan 2022
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chipwitch View Post
These are unprecedented times.

Indeed. However, statistically there is a 90% chance that the high or low of the day occurs in the first 90 minutes after the open. Making the strategy of taking a long swing trade in the direction of the trend a pretty good idea.

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  #50 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
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GoodTrading View Post
Indeed. However, statistically there is a 90% chance that the high or low of the day occurs in the first 90 minutes after the open. Making the strategy of taking a long swing trade in the direction of the trend a pretty good idea.

Just to backup this statement ( or at least come pretty close)

Over the last 5 years...

The high of the day occurred during first 90 minutes 457 days out of 1249, or 37% of days
The low of the day occurred during first 90 minutes 621 days out of 1249, or 50% of days

The 5 years previous to that look about the same.

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Last Updated on April 21, 2022


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