bobwest 

If you put a buy or sell order at the same spot that most other traders do, then your order will be matched, of course, but who will then drive price up/down in your direction so you will profit? If you run with the crowd, you will not beat it.

In the short term, and in some cases, the long term, the primary driver of a market is almost always positioning. Everything is positioning... it's why we get rallies on bad news, and selling on good news; it's the reason why so many people are frustrated so much of the time. They don't understand positioning. In a nutshell, it's what trading is all about.

It's the same as in texas hold'em (which I'm not an expert in, I confess!). There are times when you bet large to scare everybody off. But often, your goal is to get everybody else big, when you have a great hand. Poker is about playing the other players, not about the cards you have. You are paid by others. Same in the market -- you are not paid to buy good news or sell bad news.. any idiot can do that. You are paid to literally take the money from someone else when they are too big and have a bad hand (relative to yours).

Of course! But it became illogical and I became irrational when after 6-7 trades with 70% chance and 3 completely random trades all turned against me- but instantly. If I or anybody wanted to have that result would have been almost impossible. Well, now the almost became Reality.
I do remember: I said to myself: put 15K, now the CL is low- wait a bit more to fall and then Buy. And stick with it. I didn’t do it. And that was the week when CL went negative- do I would had been wiped. And of course think: it was for me.
But it’s uncanny how much more often is not in my favor.
Thank you for all the advise from everybody! Even the facetious was on target.
Taking responsibility, watching the internal process, the subtle and overt changes and all other contributing factors is the Only Way.

lamass 

And of course think: it was for me. But it’s uncanny how much more often is not in my favor.

You get it, which is good. To drive the point home: any time you are focused on yourself -- except from the standpoint of monitoring your mood/emotions/etc., which is critical -- you are not focused on the market. And the market is all that matters. So cliche, but so true. My opinion, past experience, amount of capital, emotional baggage, previous trade, relationship with my brother ... all that stuff is just 100% irrelevant to the market, and the moment I think the market knows or cares about me the least little bit, I've already lost, because I'm not focused on what matters.

lamass 

Markets are changing constantly. That's given. But as of late, I noticed catastrophic turn of events. Every, literary every trade i took (out of 12), during 2 days- turned against me. That has not happened to me for loooong time. I even made real money 4 haphazard illogical trades: still the same- against me. As if someone or Algos are watching and saying: going 4 points here will make him capitulate or give him a margin call. Yes, i trade with just $400 account: ES and RTY. But then i traded also ESM and M2K and still the same. I heard that Brokers disclose the accounts to whomever pays for that information daily or can trade against their own clients- should they choose. However for dozens times over and over i had been able to bring a $400 into $1000-$2000 and then withdraw. Because I had had the experience that no matter how fat account i have- they can manage to empty it- so i started withdrawing each $500-700 i make. So i started making money. But after a month or so they(whomever they are) as if discovering someone is draining their accounts- changed tactics and voila: Each move i make is a Looser. I can not go even 1 pnt in my direction. If I show you the charts you'll be also amazed. Is it possible? I know i saw 700 contracts on the RTY or 13500 on the ES but still: how is it possible that I hit each worst spot each time 12 times in a day in a raw? Is the entire Market watching me AGAINST ME? [HELP!!!] I changed even tactics. Changed expectations. Made live tests. Same result. Or, if I am such master for spotting the worst while thinking its the best, Can somebody hire me and do the Opposite of me? Then lets split the enormous gains. Flabbergasted! Does somebody have the experience that you are watched? [ And no, I have no paranoia, schizo or bipolar... ]

Honestly, you are in a business you know very little/nothing about. Hence it's a complete mystery.

You are not going to understand this so I'm going to help you with some analogies.

You can make great dogs and burgers on the backyard grill. You open a sandwich shop and lose money.

You hand wash and wax your vehicle twice a week and detail it twice a month. Cleanest, most gorgeous show ready car around. You open a car wash and lose money.

You shoot hoops in your driveway making 20 of 20. You play one-on-one with LeBron ...enough said.

Trading is about probability. Markets are anticipatory in nature. Risk is Absolute King. Traders know this ....real traders.

You don't even think about Risk. You think about profit. Your brain is infatuated by how much you can make...money money money.

Sorry if I'm rough on you but it is for your own good. I should be in bed right now.

Plan out what you are going to Risk each and every trading day, each trade.

Large account size is a monster advantage. (Not bragging, illustrating, educating) I could lose $400 everyday for over a year and still be in business. This gig is Dog-Eat-Dog my friend. I would never jump in the octagon with Georges St-Pierre. But you do. And wonder why you got beat.

I can say with total confidence, 100%, I stop trading after three trades that don't work. Never in my wildest dreams would I let that number become, 12 in 2 days, as you said.

This business is about being in control of your person. Using emotions as data. Knowing, Trusting oneself.

Nobody gives a flying F_ _ _ about your tiny trades or your orders. Focus on Risk and your high probability Edge learn about probabilities in general... but most of all Focus on yourself. Stop complaining.

Ron

lamass 

But it became illogical and I became irrational when after 6-7 trades with 70% chance and 3 completely random trades all turned against me- but instantly. If I or anybody wanted to have that result would have been almost impossible.

An individual trade won't have a 70% chance of success. An individual trade can either go up or down so it is 50% probability. If you have a system that averages 70% win rate that is only valid if based on a large enough sample size to be valid.
I just flipped a coin a number of times. Within eight flips I had three tails in a row. I didn't assume the coin was weighted against me. Three same results in a row has a 12.5% chance of occurring in a string of random events.
The fact your method is now losing suggests your 70% win rate came from a sample size that was: too small, based on a trade sample taken from a non diverse range of market conditions, or if it only works in one type of market, not stopped when the market isn't trading in that way; or you aren't taking the trades consistently.
"They" are not out to get you. The market is there purely to facilitate trade and go up until it finds sellers, go down until it finds buyers and constantly find a price where both sides are happy to trade.

If you see / visualize , think about , fear or have any shark related experiences while trading i suggest you cut back on the coffee or anything with coffee like effects ( wink wink )

You have issues and they got nothing to do with trading , think psychotic type afflictions .

Resume the paranoia

TWDsje 

There is a constant evolving metagame being played with technicals. Robots backtest to see what strategies are working recently, and attempt to switch strategies based on what is working. Other robots attempt to determine what will be popular next so they can counter the meta. So when you have something that works, it's usually a matter of time before the market figures it out. The nature of edge is such that they're always working to arbitrage any market inefficiencies. There's lots of ways that the market adjusts for this. For instance, trades with high probability usually move more when they fail. But a lot of the strategies that tape readers find balance out by having bad draw-downs. So the strategy will work great for 3 months, and then all the sudden you lose every time. Which is why I just don't think it works long term to trade on pure technicals. You should understand the environment you are in, and why it leads to that particular setup working well. Lately we've had an environment where almost everything works. So I think you know where that goes...

Excuse me and not advertising, but the counter trend system I use is still working after almost a decade in the market and will continue working forever - because it's designed to enter trades after an exhaustion in any market. And as everybody knows, this will be there forever as any market on a short time frame cannot run in just one direction - there is an exhaustion after X amount of minutes. That's where I capitalize - majority of times when the trades work in favour, not since a year or something but on a longer time frame.

Of course I never win a hundred percent (instead minimize the risk) all the times, but who does apart from the big boys anyways?

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lightsun47 

Excuse me and not advertising, but the counter trend system I use is still working after almost a decade in the market and will continue working forever - because it's designed to enter trades after an exhaustion in any market. And as everybody knows, this will be there forever as any market on a short time frame cannot run in just one direction - there is an exhaustion after X amount of minutes. That's where I capitalize - majority of times when the trades work in favour, not since a year or something but on a longer time frame. Of course I never win a hundred percent (instead minimize the risk) all the times, but who does apart from the big boys anyways? Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Prove it.

Blash 

Honestly, you are in a business you know very little/nothing about. Hence it's a complete mystery. You are not going to understand this so I'm going to help you with some analogies. You can make great dogs and burgers on the backyard grill. You open a sandwich shop and lose money. You hand wash and wax your vehicle twice a week and detail it twice a month. Cleanest, most gorgeous show ready car around. You open a car wash and lose money. You shoot hoops in your driveway making 20 of 20. You play one-on-one with LeBron ...enough said. Trading is about probability. Markets are anticipatory in nature. Risk is Absolute King. Traders know this ....real traders. You don't even think about Risk. You think about profit. Your brain is infatuated by how much you can make...money money money. Sorry if I'm rough on you but it is for your own good. I should be in bed right now. Plan out what you are going to Risk each and every trading day, each trade. Large account size is a monster advantage. (Not bragging, illustrating, educating) I could lose $400 everyday for over a year and still be in business. This gig is Dog-Eat-Dog my friend. I would never jump in the octagon with Georges St-Pierre. But you do. And wonder why you got beat. I can say with total confidence, 100%, I stop trading after three trades that don't work. Never in my wildest dreams would I let that number become, 12 in 2 days, as you said. This business is about being in control of your person. Using emotions as data. Knowing, Trusting oneself. Nobody gives a flying F_ _ _ about your tiny trades or your orders. Focus on Risk and your high probability Edge learn about probabilities in general... but most of all Focus on yourself. Stop complaining. Ron

One of the best posts I've read in a long time and couldn't put it any better. Should make it sticky. Nice one

TWDsje 

Prove it.

I ain't a vendor trying to sell anything. Whatever I use, at least won't go away like I said before.

If I happy, I am happy. I don't have to show you my personal statements or anything to prove anything.

P.S. Whatever you had said might be true, but not 100% always, because there will be ways to counter strike the 'bots' too.

There's always a way.

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