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Didn't trade live today. There was one great short setup on the open that I missed.
Market Condition: Daily Downtrend still fully in place, Seasonality is bullish but news in bearish.
The market is weak below 3075, Uptrend will re-establish after price holds 3100
Action: No live trading.
Comments: I don't like to trade live right on the open. Need to change that. Missed an excellent setup.
3000 level held Friday due I think to put option rolling. MES went down because of MM selling futures due to
new put buying and then up because some of MM hedges were not needed since weekly options expired.
Today the P/C Ratio went down in the afternoon so Puts closed -> MM hedges closed -> MM Futures buying goes up
Daily Momentum starting to turn down for MES and HYG
6-29-2020-Morning short trade setup
2020-06-29 15_45_01-Current Market Statistics
2020-06-29 16_45_55-Chart - ES_Daily_Momentum
2020-06-29 16_43_19-Chart - HYG_Daily_Momentum
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Market held 3150 and may be shifting to an uptrend
BO Price for the week is 3132, so if we can break and hold that level then ES has a good shot at 3200 either this week or next week.
For a solid uptrend to be in place ES needs to hold 3100.
ES Levels For 7-01-2020:
Above 3050: Long Bias
Above 3100: Long Trend
Above 3132: Long Momentum Trend
3000-3050: Neutral, Consolidation Zone
Below 3000: Short Bias
Below 2950: Short Trend
Market Condition: Unstable uptrend. Could NOT hold 3100.
Action: Did not trade live. Traded in Sim only.
Comments: I did not find any positive expectancy trades today. Uptrend was unstable.
For learning purposes I traded sim. The stats show what happens when you take
trades that don't have a long term positive expectancy.
Market Condition: Stable Uptrend (Held 3100). No Uptrend Momentum (Didn't hold 3132)
Action: Traded Sim in the morning. Traded Live in the afternoon on NT8 and TOS.
Comments: Missed the big non-farm payroll trade at 8:30 AM EDT in Live trading. Caught it in Sim.
Sometimes it's the one big trade that you catch that makes the biggest difference for the day's P&L
Market Condition: Uptrend with small amount of momentum (Price stayed above 3132 price level) , Kept above 3150
means a strong move to 3200 is very likely this week.
Actions: Traded Sim only. Reason: Market never got to lower optimal support levels (3133, 3148)
Comments: Reward:Risk was not good due to sim entry away from safe support levels.
Market Condition: Uptrend getting weaker. No Momentum. Consolidation zone: 3125-3175
Action: 3125 level held, bought at 29.75 in Live trading but didn't hold past 35.50
because the market has been in a bit of an intraday choppy consolidation period
with the big moves happening in the Asian/European sessions.
Comments: bounces off key pullback levels tend to make more $$$ than looking for short term topping patterns in the current market environment.
