vmodus 

All of the metrics you mentioned are useful, but for us it is simply end of year P/L. Our 1099-B's tells us if we are profitable. I know this seems like an oversimplification, but in my mind profitability is binary: you either are or you are not. With respect to your comment on mechanical systems (we are algorithmic traders for 12+ years), I don't know if your numbers are accurate but I would love to find out. Unfortunately brokers cannot tell who is trading algorithmically versus discretionary, though many (all?) publish the percentages of retail and institutional traders who make money. I can tell you that as soon as we algo traders stick our fingers in the pie, we are discretionary, such as when we have to correct a bad entry. I know every algo trader has had to intervene manually at some point. I have known of some traders who have blown up accounts with their automated systems. Hopefully someone is able to commission and perform a study that can provide us with how many algo traders are profitable. Maybe when my pockets are deeper I will do that . Okay, I went off rail there. Anyhow, I think the metrics you mention have a ton of value, but some are more important than others, depending upon what you trade (softs, metals, indexes, equities, options, wine*, etc.), how you trade (style), when you trade (timeframe), and why you trade (goals and expected outcomes). Profitability eventually comes down to: did I make money? Anyhow, great comment, thanks for sharing! ~vmodus * I have traded wine futures once upon a time, for real

I partially agree with you. Those metrics are not the best because they don't show the total risk. Risk (even partial risk) is hard to show because most (all?) systems won't track it. But annual tax statements are not enough because we are also trying to determine the statistical chance of long term profitability not just historical profitability. A trader can be very profitable for a few years and then blow up spectacularly because he never managed risk well. His historical risk adjusted returns will be poor.

Bubba1 

Johnny Boy, Matt does not moderate when he is in a trade as he is focused. You will see the trades show up and the P/L will show up his progress up and or down. He usually is around for the first few hours. He does not broadcast all day long.

Thank you Bubba1 for sharing with me someone who actually trades live real cash. I have always wondered is there any trader out there willing to show others what they are doing. To me it only makes sense to trade live and show your customers or viewers your trading if you selling them something.

Thank you

Analytic 

I partially agree with you. Those metrics are not the best because they don't show the total risk. Risk (even partial risk) is hard to show because most (all?) systems won't track it. But annual tax statements are not enough because we are also trying to determine the statistical chance of long term profitability not just historical profitability. A trader can be very profitable for a few years and then blow up spectacularly because he never managed risk well. His historical risk adjusted returns will be poor.

Great point, thanks!

~vmodus

I hope everyone can trade smart and make money during these bountiful times where the markets are alive and about to hear the sound of a crash


MY ONLY REASON FOR ENTERING THIS CONVERSATION







just look at how beautiful and symmetrical the markets have been looking recently(july 6, 7), at least HFT is good for something eh ;p

the ES movement for the week folks

I wouldn't be posting this if it weren't symentrical............



buy low sell high

Analytic 

I partially agree with you. Those metrics are not the best because they don't show the total risk. Risk (even partial risk) is hard to show because most (all?) systems won't track it. But annual tax statements are not enough because we are also trying to determine the statistical chance of long term profitability not just historical profitability. A trader can be very profitable for a few years and then blow up spectacularly because he never managed risk well. His historical risk adjusted returns will be poor.

Analytic,

If someone shows you 5 years of annual trading tax statements from 2015 to 2020, AND all of their trades during this period, AND provide you the performance metrics of all these trades, is this not enough to convince you with a high probability chance of not wasting time , energy , stress, and money to invest in this person to teach you how to trade?

What else would you want someone to show you? The performance metrics will show edge and drawdown.

Check out Hilmie....he purports to either win or lose $30k-$50k per month.
He lives large in a mansion in Dallas, TX.
Supposedly he has some special pattern-reading ability.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/joining-the-cme-gang.334231/page-43

Is he related to Jeff Lowe by chance?

syswizard 

Check out Hilmie....he purports to either win or lose $30k-$50k per month. He lives large in a mansion in Dallas, TX. Supposedly he has some special pattern-reading ability. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/joining-the-cme-gang.334231/page-43

goodoboy 

Analytic, If someone shows you 5 years of annual trading tax statements from 2015 to 2020, AND all of their trades during this period, AND provide you the performance metrics of all these trades, is this not enough to convince you with a high probability chance of not wasting time , energy , stress, and money to invest in this person to teach you how to trade? What else would you want someone to show you? The performance metrics will show edge and drawdown.

If they provided all of their trades during the period then for sure you'd have all the information you'd need to make a decision, including how much risk they're taking on.

But I have never seen it. Not 5 years worth, and certainly not anyone trying to sell something.

This is really just about teaching people how to evaluate a strategy, because there's a lot of dirty tricks the charlatans are using out there that are very effective at convincing people. The biggest one I see is making money by taking on excessive risk. Strategies that fit this category would include strategies where your target is much closer than your stop (if there's a stop at all), doubling down on losers, or martingale strategies where you risk more and more even when you're losing. Such strategies can result in really high winrates, but risk catastrophic losses. I find this particularly common among combine traders. They'll get funded using excessive risk, and then blow the account later. I know some individuals that have been funded over 6 times!

Many probably stumble upon these kinds of strategies to protect their ego. You'll find that the narcissistic ones almost always do this sort of thing. They don't want to be wrong, and so they take on extra risk to avoid having to face the reality. However, it's also just a really easy way to develop a following on YouTube or to sell a service. To new traders it appears like you're winning all the time. You can get away with it for a long time too. Years even. When that bad day comes along it can just be dismissed as a mistake. The reality though is that the blowing up is an inherent property of a strategy that has no real edge.

planetkill 

Is he related to Jeff Lowe by chance?

You mean this guy ?: https://www.thehollywoodgossip.com/2020/04/jeff-lowe-tiger-king-stars-shady-past-exposed/
WTF does he have to do with trading ?