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Is anyone actually making money?


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Is anyone actually making money?

  #101 (permalink)
goodoboy
Houston
 
Posts: 380 since Dec 2016
Thanks Given: 344
Thanks Received: 246


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The Hard Truth is that no one actually knows if any retail traders actually make money over the long term (5 or more years)

To actually know that a trader makes money consistently you need at least the following:

1) Two full sequential years of verified sequential daily broker statements/annual broker statements with very few gaps in trading days
(So you can see the year over year performance)
2) Summary Statistics: Expectancy, MAX DD, Net Profit/MAX DD, Average MFE/MAE
3) Additional years of verified daily broker statements/annual broker statements covering a wide variety of different volatility levels and different market regimes (including if available flash crash days, limit up/limit down days, market halt days).

*Important: all broker statements must be audited and signed by a regulated third party.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Take the following below with 'a big grain of salt'

The generally accepted thinking is that about 95% retail traders lose money over the long term
If you look at just retail traders who trade without having a robust statistical trading process that number is 100%

Of the 5% who make money, about 80% trade mechanical systems and 20% do discretionary trading
Again no stats here just compiled what I've read, seen, and heard over the last 20 years.

Thanks and very well written. I like that

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  #102 (permalink)
 
Mabi's Avatar
 Mabi 
sweden
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader,MetaTrader
Trading: futures, FX
Posts: 141 since Oct 2010
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This is what I have been doing last 3 years. I have been into making strategies thru Genetic evo continuously on 200 computor threads. I have also traded and are trading 1000nds of them mostly on demo accounts but some real accounts as well and i guess i been lucky since they have been making money on my real accounts. I learned a bunch of things doing this for example.

1. Most strategies actually works if the market it is trading comply with it. Curve fitting is a myth.
2. All strategies will have stagnation and drawdown. This is the most common state.
3. You cant make a strategy profitable on a period when it has been loosing by optimizing it . You can make it flat.
4. Saving good performing strategies after a 6-24 months period with very good performance has no impact on future performance looking at a short perspective of 6 months or less since stagnation and drawdown is the most common state.

Now i decided to try and trade only the current performing strategies based on a rolling look back x trades performance which i have automated. This seems to work fine and increases winrate of the 1000 plus strategies from 49 % to 60 % which seems to be a game changer because this way i can now bulk trade strategies and be tuf and only trade the ones that actually currently have an edge on the current market that they are trading.

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  #103 (permalink)
OccamsRazorTrader
Fort Myers Florida/USA
 
Posts: 70 since May 2020
Thanks Given: 43
Thanks Received: 66


I've been trading for over 10 years, some years profitable some years not so much. I've literally tested almost every indicator known to man, and have been frustrated enough to call it quits several times, but sooner or later the market pulls me back in.

I have no reason to lie to you or offer false bravado, I'm selling nothing. About 2 years ago I discovered an algorithm using pure price action. I have a proprietary way to set up the time bars, so they are unique to my chart. To provide some frame work- if technical analysis works- but everyone is trading the same charts there will be no edge. ES Futures trade from 6:00 pm till 5:00 the next day, so that's a daily chart. But a daily chart can also be from 12:00 noon to 11:59:59 am the following day- it's still a daily chart but no one is looking at it for typical patterns. (Not what I do- it's just a for instance) My system is a swing system, which is SAR (Stop and Reverse). I trade a basket of 8 commodities, and have been either long or short in the market, on all 8 contracts, since funding my account from a property sale on February 3rd 2020. My account is currently up 77.79% as of 5:00 est today. I'm actually in a draw down as my account was been over 100% twice in the past 2 months. I wish returns could be steady and offer a consistent 1k per week but that is just not how the markets tend to turn. Most systems will have a dormant period, where the system is spinning it's wheels or losing money- but the key is when the market starts clicking again- will the system make up for the small losses accumulated along the way.

I'm not a programmer- so my back testing is done manually on Excell, which is extremely time consuming- but back testing revealed my system has had over a 100% return for the last 3 years. (107%, 127% and 162%). After hitting 50% profits by the end of March- I assumed the system would be over 200% for this year- which remains to be seen.

Profitable systems are like nuggets of gold- they are hard to find- and it takes a tremendous amount of expended energy to find one. I'm very protective of my system- I've read tons of information, and it seems that most profitable systems exploit discrepancies in the market which are eventually recognized and filled, whereas the system will begin to fail- again this remains to be seen.

I've researched prop firms and incubators, and I feel they are all methods of hi jacking some one else's hard work. My goal is to continue to build the account- at which point I can start drawing off money to live.

I actually have tears in my eyes when I see the return, and what this could mean for my future, but I remain cautiously optimistic. I hope if (or when) the system fails I'm able to recognize it and re-act accordingly. Even though the return, to the casual observer, is impressive- bad days are still bad days, and you never know if that bad day is the first of many and will lead to a breakdown of the system, it's not easy.

No matter what confidence in my system I think I have, and with all the testing in the world, on a daily basis there is concern. Real money is on the line- and you do the exact same things to lose money (when the system doesn't work) as you did to make money, which is like no other job you've had. The peace of mind I do have is that Jim Simons from RenTech, assumed his system would eventually blow up- and that was on his way to 20 billion dollars! If I could only be so lucky.....................................

Good luck and keep the faith.

As an aside: At this point I have no clue as to what my system would be worth going forward, scalability is an issue with an account, say, over 10 million? So in that regard I wouldn't 'sell' my system to anyone for any amount at this point, if it's true money maker, with all the ups, downs and blemishes, how would you value it? So the entire point of my post (like the Market Wizards books) is just to add positivity to the mix- this journey can be extremely frustrating, been there, but the rewards are possible for those with conviction (and maybe a little luck). From "The Edge": What one man can do another can do!

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  #104 (permalink)
 xinm 
Georgia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: jigsaw
Trading: ES
Posts: 5 since Jun 2019
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 2

I know lots of people use jigsaw profitable.

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  #105 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
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Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
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  #106 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
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Swing Trader
 
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  #107 (permalink)
 bmaran 
johns creek , GA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja
Trading: gold
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Duration: Minutes
Posts: 74 since May 2013
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can you share ..how u are profitable.
I have been trading for 7 years and never profitable

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  #108 (permalink)
 
FuturesTrader71's Avatar
 FuturesTrader71 
 
Posts: 391 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 174
Thanks Received: 1,513

Hey Members,

I wanted to weigh in here a little bit since I have had a lot of exposure to failure as a trader on my own and through my own prop traders and the many online traders I have come to know.

Here's the bottom line: Take any method or approach (fibs, trend strategies, auction markets, indicators, price action, order flow, etc.) and you can be a tremendous success or a complete failure depending on a ton of constantly moving variables. You can feel like an ace with your 14/50 EMA cross-over system for a period and then watch your account dissolve to nothing. In other words, everything works and nothing works a lot of the time. There is a heavy element of luck and randomness in addition to market regimes that may favor one way over another.

With that being said, the thing that must be consistently stable is the trader. I think @Meklon and others offer solid advice. For consistent resilience and adaptation, in my opinion, you must understand why the market rotates and its purpose at its core. So understand that it is an auction and understand how auctions work. Then use one of many, many ways discussed here at FIO as to how to identify a balance (choppy/sideways) market vs imbalanced (trending/breakout/momentum) market. Then create a plan that SUITS YOU AS AN INDIVIDUAL which first sets a reasonable amount of cost for testing a trade (this is your stop) to find out if your timing, direction, entry price and stop size are aligned with the market. At its core, this is what trading is. Period. Don't complicate it more than this.

I know I'm not offering you specific steps, but I would really urge you to come with the attitude that you are just a sail in the wind. Your goal is to simply position yourself in a direction where the wind (which you can't create or control) will take you. So identify the trend in YOUR time frame and ride it for reasonable outcomes.

I can get more specific, but then again I have done what seems like 100s of webinars on many aspects of what I'm covering here.

Be patient. Be vigilant with risk. Allow yourself time and mistakes. This will take a while and will cost a lot to figure out.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #109 (permalink)
Bubba1
Wichita Kansas USA
 
Posts: 34 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 74

There are many profitable consistent traders of stocks and futures. You just need to know where to find them. They are young, they work, and they are focused. You can find a few of them on Twitch. Yesterday, Matt, a funded $150k trader at Topstep was down $2900, took a break, and made $7,000 to finish up the day with profits over $4,000.

jtradezdays is another consistent trader. You see his trading live, you see his face and his focus.

I can lead you to many more but that should do for a start.

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  #110 (permalink)
Bubba1
Wichita Kansas USA
 
Posts: 34 since Feb 2016
Thanks Given: 1
Thanks Received: 74


And, I just saw the post by FT71. He has some good things to say so read that closely. I remember many years ago he and I were banished together from a trade room that we were in. We moved over to another room with just us 2 in it. I was glad to see he moved on up to where he is now.

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Last Updated on June 20, 2023


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