200730 US AM session trading recap.

7. Short for MR. Bad entry in range and at support (-0.25 pts)
8. Long on impulse to next swing high (+6.75 pts)
9. Long 5m PB. Great entry & exit. Normally I would target the swing high but the market is ranging and behaving very unpredictable with large overlapping up & down candles (5m) so I try to take my profit and loss very quickly (+8.00 pts)

Total +14.50 pts.

200731 US AM session trading recap.

1. Long MR. Closed too early, almost reached ONL (red line) (+2.75 pts)
2. Long MR / BOF. Closed at supply line with confluence keltner-channel & swing high / prior selling. Be agile bc counter-trend (+11.00 pts)
3. Long 5m PB for test 1H level breakdown. Stopped BE (-0.25 pts)
4. Re-entry long PB. Closed bc of resistance & no immediate follow through (2.50 pts)

Total +16 pts.

200731 US PM session trading recap.

Trade 5: Long MR / BOF IBL (& 1H level). Tried to give it some room (in case of a runner) which cost me (MFE 7.00). Should be alert to a test of the low. Stopped on trailing stop. Maybe next time. (+1.75 pts)

Trade 6: Long 5m PB for at least swing high. Again gave it some room (MFE 5.75) and again stopped on trailing stop. The only thing I can control is where I go in and where I place my stop. If the market doesn't rally then so be it. It's outside of my control. (+1.75 pts)

Total for the day +19.50 pts

200731 Week in review

Today ended the sixth positive week in a row. It was the best week since I started my journal with a profit of $179.50 (before commissions).

Last week I wrote that I would try to improve my entries & exits and just follow my rules. I think overall my entries are okay. I tried to let my trades run but had little success. Some were stopped (and I gave up some profit) and some runners I missed due to an early exit. This is something to keep continue working on. Overall I followed my rules well. Wednesday could have turned in a tilt day but I paused in time, kept cool and could recover part of the losses.

The NQ makes swings of hundreds of points up and down and scalping a couple of points seems too little in proportion. I feel I should try to catch a bigger swing every now and then and therefore I will try to continue working on my exits.

200731 Monthly stats for July 2020

This month had only three losing days, of which one tilt day, and seventeen winning days.

Total result for July is $466.75 (before total costs of $196.88 / 214 trades x $0.92).

It's not about the amount of money, it's about process, consistency and coming out ahead with a (small) profit over a certain period of time.

If you can't make a dime you'll certainly not make a dollar. Too much leverage is what's holding people back. I felt the micros are for pussies, not for serious traders who want to make serious money. I've learned my lesson(s) and paid for it. I came to regard trading as a game with levels and you can't skip any. Skipping levels will cost you dearly. Maybe so much that you don't want to analyze (because that really hurts) and take a time-out to forget and let the pain diminish. Then you will start all over (with new plans and best intentions) and make the same mistakes. Year after year.

You need to master one level before you can go to the next one and the first level is sim trading. If you can't be profitable in sim you'll not be profitable live. If profitable in sim that's zero evidence you will make money live because that's a whole different game. So start live trading slowly and above all small. CFDs, ETFs and especially the micros provide in this. Prove to yourself you can close the month with a profit, however small it is. Do this for a certain period of time and then scale up gradually. That's the next level and that's where I am right now. First month of profit, not much but positive. Of course charges eat up a big part of the profits but again, that's not of importance now. The question now is should I go on or should I scale up. I am in no hurry. Just let's see how things evolve, one step at the time.

200807 EU session trading recap.

Trading the micros doesn't ensure one won't have a tilt day but it helps to limit the losses and meanwhile work towards consistency. Working towards consistency entails working on both mental and technical aspects but mostly mental.

I had a very bad 'tilt' day last Friday. This is a serious problem. Lots of people struggle to become consistent. They win for days or weeks only to give it all back in a couple of sessions or even in one session. Some will make a note in their journal and maybe write about what they are going to change. It's uncommon to read a detailed review of the 'tilt' day and in particular with regard to people's thoughts and feelings (emotions). Maybe people are ashamed to admit their, what they think, stupid and dumb actions. I know I am. But I also know that a tilt day is an opportunity to grow and get better.

Can I identify the technical and mental aspects that lead to a tilt day so I can prevent these tilt days in the future? I am not a fan of stopping after a certain profit or loss or a given number of trades. I need to take all my setups but sometimes my feelings get in the way (of my intuition). What is the difference and how are feelings effecting intuition? How can they make me lose my composure (and take over)? How can I reset and how long does it take to reset? This is the core problem to address.

1. Short PB for test low (-7.50 pts)
2. Long PB for trend up bc this may be a test of the 14:30 breakout on news (-2.25 pts)
3. Short (on PB?) (-2.25 pts)
4. Scale-in on profit (-3.50 pts)
5+6. Re-entry short (after exiting prior short). Now 2 lots (-3.75 -3.50 pts)
7. Long (-3.75 pts)
8. Scale-in long (-3.25 pts)
9. Long again (-2.50 pts)

Total loss after 9 losing trades (and zero winning) is -32.25 pts.

I failed to recognize the range! Not one trade was legitimate! (in a range, meaning price is between last swing low and high, only sell high range (downtrend) and buy low range (uptrend)).

200807 US session trading recap.

I started the US RTH session with a loss of already -32.25 pts (from the EU session). Not a very good start. And I didn't had much time left. I had to go out (with temperature over 35 degrees Celsius). I want to trade. I need to recoup the losses as soon as possible (state of mind).

10. Long PB early in the session (I am behind and need to go out so don't have much time). Not a bad entry for a possible upside breakout (and trend). Closed in time for nearly BE (-0.25)
11. Re-entry long on PB and buying (tail) below. Again not a bad entry but maybe to early in the session. Market showed no direction yet. No follow through, price retraced back under ema20 (-6.25)
12. Re-entry long on CPB and BOF (with buying again). Bad entry, lots of overlapping bars (ranging) and I failed to note the lower high, first sign of a sideways market.
13. With the market unable to make new highs and no more buying I went short on a PB for at least a test of the low. Important to note is that the market is not trending but ranging (again price is between last swing low and high). PBs are for a trending market, when sideways I need to look to buy the lows and sell the highs.
14. Long PB. No follow through. Gave up 10 pts and closed BE (0.00) (MFE=10)
15. Re-entry long on PB (-6.50). Market is not going anywhere, just up & down going sideways. All trend setups failed.
16. Re-entry long on PB (-6.75)
17. Re-entry long
18. Scale-in. Closed too early (+3.00 -2.00)
19. Re-entry long on PB. Bad location at the high (possible resistance)
20. Scale-in. This could be the start of a bigger swing. Bought at the high and momentum is waning (-1.00 -6.25)
21+22. Long PB. Unable to reach upper channel line (no momentum) (-4.75 -3.25)
23+24. Long in range, bad entry (-6.75 x2)
25. Long low range BOF. Good entry
26. Scale-in. Risky at the high (+8.50 +2.50)
27. Long on PB (-3.75)
28. Short 2-legged (ABC) PB after impulse/momentum move down reaching lower channel line. These are the high probability entries to wait for (but I didn't have time to wait, I was going out) (+5.75)
29. Long on impulse up (buying) (+3.50)
30. Long on PB. Good re-entry (+4.75)
31. Long on PB. Good re-entry (+4.50)

Market is unable to reach the high (test). The swing down from the high was a sigh of weakness (SOW). By now I should be aware this could be distribution.

32. Long PB after BOF swing low (of first minutes after the open) (+4.50)
33. Scale-in long (+4.25)
34. Long PB. Closed too early, better stay in the trade if no reason to close. Unnecessary loss (-3.75)
35. Re-entry long PB.
36. Scale-in (on BO swing high). Closed too early. There was no reason at all to close out but anxiety (+3.25 +1.25)
37. Long PB (-3.25)
38. Short PB
39. Scale-in. Closed too early, trading anxiety (+3.00 +1.00)
40. Long 5m PB
41. Scale-in (+2.75 +2.00)
42. Long PB (+4.75)
43. Long at high, terrible entry, where to get out? Closed near IBH(+4.75)

By now I regained some of the losses and decided to try to recoup some more instead of quitting (what would have been the wisest thing to do bc I had to leave soon and the loss is still surmountable). Score for now is -44.50 pts.

44. Long. Bad entry far from ema20 near channel line (-7.75)
45. Long PB (not really). Bad entry.
46. Scale in. Bad entry (-7.75 -9.50)
47. Short, should wait for a PB
48. Scale-in. Closed too early. These are the good entries (based on PA!) (+8.75 +8.00)
49+50. Short 2x for a test of IBL (-4.00 -3.75)
51+52+53. Long 3x. No clue why in hindsight. Only reason I can think of is the fact I had to go and wanted to limit my losses (-0.75 -5.75 -3.50)
54-57. Short 4x for a test of IBL. Closed (too) early bc 4x short. Target was reached (-2.00 -2.00 -4.00 -2.00)

Total loss for the day is -80.50 pts (lost all profits of the whole week).

It may be because I was going out later that day and couldn't trade the whole day I started trading early in the session and tried to lock in some profit before I had to go out. This obviously led to trying, overtrading and not objective trade entries.

It's an awful lot of data to review (spent almost whole weekend) but I believe I learned some things and I am now better prepared for next week. Just doing my best and keep on going.

Summary: a lot of small losers (adding up), some small winners and no runners (ranging) to compensate for the losers. I tried to recoup at least some of the losses in a race against time. This led to too much trying and fighting! I feel that the combination of an urge to end the day (every day) with a profit with the fact I had to leave early resulted in a tilt day. Besides that there are some things bothering me. I (sometimes) need to take care of things but I am 100% focused on trading and thereby neglect other 'duties' like housekeeping stuff, relations and all kind of other things. This can make me feel a little restless sometimes and all those emotions impact trading. It's important to find a balance.

Comment: This week I experienced a bit with trading more contracts because I want to scale up gradually. The fact I traded more contracts today is not solely due to revenge trading although it certainly had an impact, especially the last trades with 3-4 lots.

Mich62 

200731 Monthly stats for July 2020 This month had only three losing days, of which one tilt day, and seventeen winning days. Total result for July is $466.75 (before total costs of $196.88 / 214 trades x $0.92). It's not about the amount of money, it's about process, consistency and coming out ahead with a (small) profit over a certain period of time. If you can't make a dime you'll certainly not make a dollar. Too much leverage is what's holding people back. I felt the micros are for pussies, not for serious traders who want to make serious money. I've learned my lesson(s) and paid for it. I came to regard trading as a game with levels and you can't skip any. Skipping levels will cost you dearly. Maybe so much that you don't want to analyze (because that really hurts) and take a time-out to forget and let the pain diminish. Then you will start all over (with new plans and best intentions) and make the same mistakes. Year after year. You need to master one level before you can go to the next one and the first level is sim trading. If you can't be profitable in sim you'll not be profitable live. If profitable in sim that's zero evidence you will make money live because that's a whole different game. So start live trading slowly and above all small. CFDs, ETFs and especially the micros provide in this. Prove to yourself you can close the month with a profit, however small it is. Do this for a certain period of time and then scale up gradually. That's the next level and that's where I am right now. First month of profit, not much but positive. Of course charges eat up a big part of the profits but again, that's not of importance now. The question now is should I go on or should I scale up. I am in no hurry. Just let's see how things evolve, one step at the time.

@Mich62

I have been watching your progress. You are making good strides to becoming a profitable trader. Nice work!!

The one area which looks concerning is the cost of doing business to profit ratio. Realistically, between trading costs and taxes over half your profit is going to eaten up. Plus one or two bad months could potentially wipe out several good months worth of trading profit. Even if you were to move to the full sized ES where trading costs do not take as much of your profit, most traders run into the issue of hitting a large string of losses. The psychological impact is completely different game than the micros. This is not meant to be a criticism of how your trading, just pointing out the elephant in the room. I am curious if you have considered applying your strategy to a higher time frame? Like the 5 min and 30/60 minute charts. Instead of having 10 or 12 trades in a day, it would be more like 1 to 3 trades.

Robert

Silver Dragon 

@Mich62 I have been watching your progress. You are making good strides to becoming a profitable trader. Nice work!! The one area which looks concerning is the cost of doing business to profit ratio. Realistically, between trading costs and taxes over half your profit is going to eaten up. Plus one or two bad months could potentially wipe out several good months worth of trading profit. Even if you were to move to the full sized ES where trading costs do not take as much of your profit, most traders run into the issue of hitting a large string of losses. The psychological impact is completely different game than the micros. This is not meant to be a criticism of how your trading, just pointing out the elephant in the room. I am curious if you have considered applying your strategy to a higher time frame? Like the 5 min and 30/60 minute charts. Instead of having 10 or 12 trades in a day, it would be more like 1 to 3 trades. Robert

Hi Robert, thanks for your message and kind words. Really appreciate it.

Costs when trading the micro contract and psychological impact when trading the mini contract are certainly issues to keep in mind.

I use the micro to develop a scalping kind of method with a favorable risk/reward and win-rate. Costs are less important to me in this stage. Focus is on developing a method with a positive expectancy. By gradually scaling up in micro contracts (when profitable) the step to the mini contract will be less challenging psychologically.

I look at the 5m and 60m chart for setups (based on levels, direction and momentum) but use the 10s for timing an entry (and keeping stops tight) which sometimes leads to overtrading. Till now it's going well but I need to find a way to prevent unnecessary errors (tilt days). I think this should be possible (by working on my issues / demons and continuously improving my mental and technical skills).

-Michel

200810 US AM session trading recap.

I reviewed last Friday's tilt day in depth this weekend and left it behind me. Every day is a new start for a day trader. A day trader needs to perform every day. That's the challenge and that's how I like it.

1. Long PB. Should try to close earlier (-17.50)
2. Short PB (ABC) (+13.75)
3. Long MR (+1.25)
4. Long MR. Closed at swing high (+5.25)
5. Short CPB. No follow through (-0.25)
6. Long PB (+3.25)
7. Long PB 5m MR (+1.50) (MFE=6.25)
8. Long PB 5m MR (+0.50)
9. Long PB 5m MR (0.00)
10. Re-entry long. Stop too tight (0.50)
11. Short on 5m ema20 PB. Too soon, no clear entry on the 10s (-10.00)
12+13. Re-entry short for 5m downtrend continuation or test low (+3.75 +5.25)
14. Long MR cont. Bad entry (ranging) (-6.50)
15. Short PB (lower high) (+4.50)
16. Short PB (-0.50)