snowman4839 

I've recently started getting my stuff together and I found a volume/price action strategy that I was having great results with in sim trading the ES. I traded nearly every day in April and was making great trades in the mornings for 1-2 points with 2 (sometimes 3) contracts totaling almost 80% return on my sim with a 67% win rate. I was ecstatic that after 6 years, I finally had a strategy and put it use in a sim account that I stuck with, had a plan, executed it, and was getting rewarded for it. So I continued trading sim until this week where I can't seem to catch a break. Every single day in sim, I was either breakeven or up to +200-$300 each day. Now that I moved to live, I can't seem to find the same trades I was having such great success with. I know it's only been two days of live trading and I'm going to keep at it but my first day was -$100 and today was basically breakeven minus commissions. Trades in April for me were plentiful but now recently in May, particularly since last Friday, I can't find the same type of trades as I did in April. For the more experienced traders, was April an odd month? Does my strategy only work in odd market conditions? Are off days/weeks just going to happen? I plan to stick with it but its just disheartening after being diligent with live sim and market replay proving my strategy to come to starting off with bad days.

First off, good job for developing a working strategy, if it works for 1 month really well, it's probably a viable strategy for specific market environments.

Just my opinion, March and April were when the market had extreme volatility, so day trading with those volatility by nature has good risk reward ratio as long as you cut losses short and let winners run.

But the catch is this, my gut feel is ur a momentum trader by the fact u did well in April? Because if u are then you may want to readjust, in the sense that by your strategy works for momentum trades but if the markets are mean reverting u will have to have a 2nd strategy to handle these scenarios.

For example what u may need is to figure out what phase of the market are you in? At least to stay out of the unprofitable market environment with respect to your strategy. But otherwise alternatively you could attempt to identify the type of market environment which works really well for you but widen the number of market for you to trade

BTW additional areas u can check out are market seasonality behaviours and how does summer time really trades like.

snowman4839 

I've recently started getting my stuff together and I found a volume/price action strategy that I was having great results with in sim trading the ES. I traded nearly every day in April and was making great trades in the mornings for 1-2 points with 2 (sometimes 3) contracts totaling almost 80% return on my sim with a 67% win rate. I was ecstatic that after 6 years, I finally had a strategy and put it use in a sim account that I stuck with, had a plan, executed it, and was getting rewarded for it. So I continued trading sim until this week where I can't seem to catch a break. Every single day in sim, I was either breakeven or up to +200-$300 each day. Now that I moved to live, I can't seem to find the same trades I was having such great success with. I know it's only been two days of live trading and I'm going to keep at it but my first day was -$100 and today was basically breakeven minus commissions. Trades in April for me were plentiful but now recently in May, particularly since last Friday, I can't find the same type of trades as I did in April. For the more experienced traders, was April an odd month? Does my strategy only work in odd market conditions? Are off days/weeks just going to happen? I plan to stick with it but its just disheartening after being diligent with live sim and market replay proving my strategy to come to starting off with bad days.

Hi Snowman,

There is a big difference in the human mentality whether you trade Sim or Live. - Trading is not about fear and greed as many say - It is chemical in your brain and this come to an expression in pleasure and pain.

So, when you trade SIM is easier to manage the pain as there is really nothing at stake. - If you trade ES try to move to MES and only trade 1 contract at the time.

If you trading system is 100% automated and no decision make from you is involved at each individual trade, them it might more be a matter of that you have curved fitted your system the market condition in April. - As an opinion poll in this forum has showed many traders has found there trading better ( making more money) during the Corona, this is probably due to the much more volatile markets that makes it easier to make profit - That is for most approaches, which does not work well when there is little movements in the markets.

Should be mandatory reading for all newbie threads...

...originates from a similar thread

I find it ironic, but not surprising that this thread is currently the most active thread on the forum. In the almost 10 years that I've been a member, (and @Big Mike will attest to this fact) we've gone through many, many, iterations of discussions on this very topic. It's almost a cyclical phenomenon. Another generation of aspiring traders embarking on what they think is going to be a walk-in-the-park, until they discover that achieving success in trading isn't quite as easy as they had envisioned.

Most of them are under-capitalized, and the majority of them don't know the difference between a stock and a bond. A lot of them believe the market owes them a living, and will blame the market for their lack of success, when in fact they lack the self-determination to succeed. There is nothing novel about this phenomenon. And, there is certainly nothing surprising about the response it is generating.

Other aspiring traders are eager to offer their advice. What's ironic is most of these traders are experiencing the same problems, and are incompetent at trading themselves. Incompetent traders are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent, but they are unawre of it. Almost 1/2 of them couldn't even pony up the $ to become elite members, most are on SIM and have no skin in the game, and I truly wonder how many of the others are consistently profitable to the point, where they can actually support themselves and a family, from their trading. Yet they are crawling all over themselves to tell-like-it-is; to explain how they have reinvented the wheel, and found the answer to the eternal question.

Their advice is a panoply of retail aphorisms and urban trading myths that have been propagated over the years, and regurgitated to the newbie masses. And, it's the same worthless garbage every time. You have to find your edge! Trade your plan! Find what suits you and makes you comfortable. Find a nice indicator you can settle down with and crank out 4 tics at a time. I haven't heard one expert that was offering advice say, "learn how the markets work" before you attempt to trade it.

What's ironic, Is that you'll never see these "experts" participating in threads about the markets and trading, because they really have little knowledge of how markets function, and little idea of what it really takes to make consistent and scalable profits. But they are very inclined to tell a newbie how to trade, and dispense advice with no uncertainty, blissfully ignorant of their own ineptitude. This only serves to perpetuate the cycle of retail mis-information, and re-cycle uninformed, unprepared traders that provide the winners their fresh and unknowing counterparts.

Most people are unlikely to think highly of anyone whose views they oppose. So when the newbie thinks about which person to listen to, whose advice to respect, and where to get his information, it’s likely that he will choose the one that parallels his views, even though it may not be in his best interest. There have been countless times that @Big Mike and I have tried to steer people in the right direction, but people hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. And what's sad, not ironic, is that these words will probably fall on deaf ears, or not really be comprehended nor believed, and most assuredly, they will be ignored by most

tigertrader 

Should be mandatory reading for all newbie threads... ...originates from a similar thread I find it ironic, but not surprising that this thread is currently the most active thread on the forum. In the almost 10 years that I've been a member, (and @Big Mike will attest to this fact) we've gone through many, many, iterations of discussions on this very topic. It's almost a cyclical phenomenon. Another generation of aspiring traders embarking on what they think is going to be a walk-in-the-park, until they discover that achieving success in trading isn't quite as easy as they had envisioned. Most of them are under-capitalized, and the majority of them don't know the difference between a stock and a bond. A lot of them believe the market owes them a living, and will blame the market for their lack of success, when in fact they lack the self-determination to succeed. There is nothing novel about this phenomenon. And, there is certainly nothing surprising about the response it is generating. Other aspiring traders are eager to offer their advice. What's ironic is most of these traders are experiencing the same problems, and are incompetent at trading themselves. Incompetent traders are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent, but they are unawre of it. Almost 1/2 of them couldn't even pony up the $ to become elite members, most are on SIM and have no skin in the game, and I truly wonder how many of the others are consistently profitable to the point, where they can actually support themselves and a family, from their trading. Yet they are crawling all over themselves to tell-like-it-is; to explain how they have reinvented the wheel, and found the answer to the eternal question. Their advice is a panoply of retail aphorisms and urban trading myths that have been propagated over the years, and regurgitated to the newbie masses. And, it's the same worthless garbage every time. You have to find your edge! Trade your plan! Find what suits you and makes you comfortable. Find a nice indicator you can settle down with and crank out 4 tics at a time. I haven't heard one expert that was offering advice say, "learn how the markets work" before you attempt to trade it. What's ironic, Is that you'll never see these "experts" participating in threads about the markets and trading, because they really have little knowledge of how markets function, and little idea of what it really takes to make consistent and scalable profits. But they are very inclined to tell a newbie how to trade, and dispense advice with no uncertainty, blissfully ignorant of their own ineptitude. This only serves to perpetuate the cycle of retail mis-information, and re-cycle uninformed, unprepared traders that provide the winners their fresh and unknowing counterparts. Most people are unlikely to think highly of anyone whose views they oppose. So when the newbie thinks about which person to listen to, whose advice to respect, and where to get his information, it’s likely that he will choose the one that parallels his views, even though it may not be in his best interest. There have been countless times that @Big Mike and I have tried to steer people in the right direction, but people hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. And what's sad, not ironic, is that these words will probably fall on deaf ears, or not really be comprehended nor believed, and most assuredly, they will be ignored by most

Sorry for the expletive that is coming. But this post is fcuking brilliant.

tigertrader 

Should be mandatory reading for all newbie threads... ...originates from a similar thread I find it ironic, but not surprising that this thread is currently the most active thread on the forum. In the almost 10 years that I've been a member, (and @Big Mike will attest to this fact) we've gone through many, many, iterations of discussions on this very topic. It's almost a cyclical phenomenon. Another generation of aspiring traders embarking on what they think is going to be a walk-in-the-park, until they discover that achieving success in trading isn't quite as easy as they had envisioned. Most of them are under-capitalized, and the majority of them don't know the difference between a stock and a bond. A lot of them believe the market owes them a living, and will blame the market for their lack of success, when in fact they lack the self-determination to succeed. There is nothing novel about this phenomenon. And, there is certainly nothing surprising about the response it is generating. Other aspiring traders are eager to offer their advice. What's ironic is most of these traders are experiencing the same problems, and are incompetent at trading themselves. Incompetent traders are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent, but they are unawre of it. Almost 1/2 of them couldn't even pony up the $ to become elite members, most are on SIM and have no skin in the game, and I truly wonder how many of the others are consistently profitable to the point, where they can actually support themselves and a family, from their trading. Yet they are crawling all over themselves to tell-like-it-is; to explain how they have reinvented the wheel, and found the answer to the eternal question. Their advice is a panoply of retail aphorisms and urban trading myths that have been propagated over the years, and regurgitated to the newbie masses. And, it's the same worthless garbage every time. You have to find your edge! Trade your plan! Find what suits you and makes you comfortable. Find a nice indicator you can settle down with and crank out 4 tics at a time. I haven't heard one expert that was offering advice say, "learn how the markets work" before you attempt to trade it. What's ironic, Is that you'll never see these "experts" participating in threads about the markets and trading, because they really have little knowledge of how markets function, and little idea of what it really takes to make consistent and scalable profits. But they are very inclined to tell a newbie how to trade, and dispense advice with no uncertainty, blissfully ignorant of their own ineptitude. This only serves to perpetuate the cycle of retail mis-information, and re-cycle uninformed, unprepared traders that provide the winners their fresh and unknowing counterparts. Most people are unlikely to think highly of anyone whose views they oppose. So when the newbie thinks about which person to listen to, whose advice to respect, and where to get his information, it’s likely that he will choose the one that parallels his views, even though it may not be in his best interest. There have been countless times that @Big Mike and I have tried to steer people in the right direction, but people hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. And what's sad, not ironic, is that these words will probably fall on deaf ears, or not really be comprehended nor believed, and most assuredly, they will be ignored by most

I don't know why... but this post made me want to upgrade to elite membership..

tigertrader 

Should be mandatory reading for all newbie threads... ...originates from a similar thread I find it ironic, but not surprising that this thread is currently the most active thread on the forum. In the almost 10 years that I've been a member, (and @Big Mike will attest to this fact) we've gone through many, many, iterations of discussions on this very topic. It's almost a cyclical phenomenon. Another generation of aspiring traders embarking on what they think is going to be a walk-in-the-park, until they discover that achieving success in trading isn't quite as easy as they had envisioned. Most of them are under-capitalized, and the majority of them don't know the difference between a stock and a bond. A lot of them believe the market owes them a living, and will blame the market for their lack of success, when in fact they lack the self-determination to succeed. There is nothing novel about this phenomenon. And, there is certainly nothing surprising about the response it is generating. Other aspiring traders are eager to offer their advice. What's ironic is most of these traders are experiencing the same problems, and are incompetent at trading themselves. Incompetent traders are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent, but they are unawre of it. Almost 1/2 of them couldn't even pony up the $ to become elite members, most are on SIM and have no skin in the game, and I truly wonder how many of the others are consistently profitable to the point, where they can actually support themselves and a family, from their trading. Yet they are crawling all over themselves to tell-like-it-is; to explain how they have reinvented the wheel, and found the answer to the eternal question. Their advice is a panoply of retail aphorisms and urban trading myths that have been propagated over the years, and regurgitated to the newbie masses. And, it's the same worthless garbage every time. You have to find your edge! Trade your plan! Find what suits you and makes you comfortable. Find a nice indicator you can settle down with and crank out 4 tics at a time. I haven't heard one expert that was offering advice say, "learn how the markets work" before you attempt to trade it. What's ironic, Is that you'll never see these "experts" participating in threads about the markets and trading, because they really have little knowledge of how markets function, and little idea of what it really takes to make consistent and scalable profits. But they are very inclined to tell a newbie how to trade, and dispense advice with no uncertainty, blissfully ignorant of their own ineptitude. This only serves to perpetuate the cycle of retail mis-information, and re-cycle uninformed, unprepared traders that provide the winners their fresh and unknowing counterparts. Most people are unlikely to think highly of anyone whose views they oppose. So when the newbie thinks about which person to listen to, whose advice to respect, and where to get his information, it’s likely that he will choose the one that parallels his views, even though it may not be in his best interest. There have been countless times that @Big Mike and I have tried to steer people in the right direction, but people hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. And what's sad, not ironic, is that these words will probably fall on deaf ears, or not really be comprehended nor believed, and most assuredly, they will be ignored by most

Thanks , agree with everything
This thread is for help somebody that needs help. Even the most new trader or master trader can give his opinion to help.
The answer for sure is in some post of this thread to solve his issue of bad trading in april. Filtering is a must when you are taking things,oppinions,strategies,etc from forums...

do you think you can replicate this success? until youve shown consistency its basically a one off