Jigsaw Trading 

I mean that some people go through that whole process of becoming a SIM millionaire, then blowing SIM accounts, then shooting for SIM stars so many times that SIM becomes meaningless for them. Sometimes you break something beyond the point it can be repaired.

I think it goes much further than just abusing the sim account. Sim is like practice, but what good is practice if the method you are practicing has components that are just wrong? Then all you're doing is ingraining bad habits.

To put it in perspective we have to remember that edge is not really a singular thing. It's not like there's just this one secret ingredient that you need and then suddenly you're profitable. There are countless edges that you'll have to develop to stand a chance in the market, and that's just to break even. It's difficult to know what things you have wrong. Otherwise you'd already be working on it right? So you start experimenting, maybe you get lucky and find something.

I think it's fair to say that I've abused sim from time to time. There's times where I realize I just don't have edge, and start trying crazy things that usually don't work out. There's severe limitations, and eventually you'll hit a wall. I just don't want anyone to think "well if I don't abuse it then I should be ok". The problem is bigger than that. Sim isn't going to tell me that corporate bond offerings bring hedgers into the treasury market that can temporarily bring down price. I watched that Gary Norden webinar on the institutional trading day 3 times before I realized that's what I was seeing in the tape. But at least if you're trading sim you're not blowing all your capital while you try to figure it out.

tigertrader 

.... You could put a 21MA, 50MA, and 200MA on your chart. A lot of low latency algos incorporate these averages (especially 50MA) and you would be surprised by how often they signal moves. They also help, to put the market in a directional and timeframe perspective...

Can I ask how you know of this?

It depends solely on what you're looking for. If it's your dream, than just follow it and don't pay attention to problems. Trading isn't about luck, it's about your skills. You should learn more, I think.

TWDsje 

I think it goes much further than just abusing the sim account. Sim is like practice, but what good is practice if the method you are practicing has components that are just wrong? Then all you're doing is ingraining bad habits.

So true! I had a fencing instructor who said "Practice doesn't make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect".

And then there's that definition of insanity.

Hilarious post! Love it!

thoughtful 

....Oops -- I just told you all their secrets! Now you owe me $5,000. Oh, I forgot one thing... at least look at the ~next larger scale to make sure you don't go against the trend direction, and/or also look at the dominant scale's trend direction. And signals use a smaller scale than the setups. Uh oh, now you owe me $10,000.

CLEARING YOUR MIND OF FALSE CONCEPTS FIRST

1) "Learning to Trade" strongly suggests that there is a "before I learned it" and then an "after I've learned it" and make lots of money. Because there is a phrase, does not mean there is such a reality.

2) "Learning to Trade a very Specific niche Market with Specific Techniques" can be a more realistic thing to strive for. Obviously, there are so many markets, driven by so many factors; that it may be wishful thinking to regard trading as some generic skill. Sure, it's a "generic skill of buying lower than you sell, consistently, and thus making profits" but that doesn't tell you how to time your entries to achieve that goal.

3) Price is what most traders are watching; and, after all, it's one price against another price later in time, which determines whether you make money. Obviously Price is important ! But Price doesn't predict Price, it doesn't predict itself !! Maybe a "pattern of price" could predict future price, but you get my point.

4) Accept that you must be able to "predict" the future; in order to be a successful trader. That is the future of price movement from now, in a very specific market, using some indications which are as objective as possible, and as predictive as possible.

5) Understand that the "garbage in / garbage out" principle applies, and that any indicator can be applied to Price movements, but you must keep in mind the distinction whether these are only "describing" what just happened, or are they "predictive" of what is to come? A bit of the "scientific method" mindset is very helpful.

6) Understand that traders are looking for patterns; and that in their search for a pattern that seems to work, they approach the mentality of a Gambler. There is an element of gambling in Trading; but most traders would like to think they have a Business which is based upon something consistently objective and profitable. The "double blind" objectivity of a scientist is there for a reason. "Confirmation Bias" is a real thing, and examples which support your particular theory or hunch are remembered, while counter-examples are easily forgotten, as you attempt to convince yourself you have a Predictive model which...

...which gives you the "Edge" you believe, rightly, that you need to have.

Look for something other than Price which may "stand behind" or "drive" price; whether that be some a) fundamental market research which applies to your trading/investing timeframes, or b) some Technical Analysis which you are able to show is positively correlated and predicts outcomes. Otherwise, yes, you are lost; and should throw in the towel.

hyperscalper

That is very well stated! Hyper, Thank you. Now if I could just find that edge. I have spent years looking at this and looking at that. It will work a bit and then not, I must say I have loved it and have no regrets although it has been a great time waster. Hope springs eternal.

Always keep in mind that selling the idea of trading and making money is where the money is! Sell the sizzile and not the steak. Any time you see boats and fast cars in the ad you know its sizzzzl.
Others try other sales methods, its all the same. They need you to cover their losses.

Trading is very personal I think and does not pass to others with much ease. Bottom line is that nobody is going to let just any swinging dick just come and take the money you have to very very clear to make any money in this market place.

Upordown 

That is very well stated! Hyper, Thank you. Now if I could just find that edge. I have spent years looking at this and looking at that. It will work a bit and then not, I must say I have loved it and have no regrets although it has been a great time waster. Hope springs eternal. Always keep in mind that selling the idea of trading and making money is where the money is! Sell the sizzile and not the steak. Any time you see boats and fast cars in the ad you know its sizzzzl. Others try other sales methods, its all the same. They need you to cover their losses. Trading is very personal I think and does not pass to others with much ease. Bottom line is that nobody is going to let just any swinging dick just come and take the money you have to very very clear to make any money in this market place.

For my money, the edge is in "deep" Technical Analysis. Not the usual stuff looking at Price movements, but digging into Inventory, Risk and Depth of Market quote placement bias. But this is something only the very few dedicated, maniacal, traders are able to do. I would advise you to learn how to code in a serious Object Oriented, multi-threaded, language like C#, but for me, it's Java; both are similar, so C#'s probably going to win, since Ninja, ATAS and other platforms use it. You need to be a pro level programmer; but, if you invest that time, then you will be able to implement your ideas, and have a better chance of succeeding. Not only in Analytics, but also in Order Entry, of course you can write your own Order placement assistants, etc. which go beyond what the platforms offer.

hyperscalper

Interesting viewpoint on becoming a programmer Hyper. Do you think Bloodhound and Blackbird could be a subsitute for learning a programming language?

chrisbergen 

Interesting viewpoint on becoming a programmer Hyper. Do you think Bloodhound and Blackbird could be a subsitute for learning a programming language?

Not knowing much about those things, I'd say there's no substitute for a "real" programming language. If you can't do multi-threading; object oriented analysis and implementation in something like C# then you're always bound by the tool you've used, as an excuse for not diving in and learning how serious programming is done. (no offense meant, in any way).

You'll never be "free" and be able to implement your wacky ideas unless you abandon scripts, frameworks, and learn a real programming language. But I'm old and biased

hyperscalper