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Tuglife's trading journal. Focused on profitability.
Another interesting screengrab. This is a 60 day VWAP of the 6E. Boy, sell at -1.25 SD and buy at -1.75 SD. Would have been good. This is an early version of my strategy.
I am out in the weeds a little. I am 80% sure my strategy would work, but there are hurdles. I believe now that I must use an automated strategy, but don't know how to code, and the nature of my strategy presents difficulties for the NT8 "strategy builder."
This is a long winded post, and I am openly seeking help. I am open to suggestions by post or PM. If someone thinks it doesn't make sense using the "Strategy Builder" and would be better to use a custom coded strategy to test this, I am all ears. Ditto regarding this strategy...does it look viable? After eyeballing charts for weeks I think it is, but only with careful risk management. I am also open to some suggestions for kind of filter, to try and enter on the side of market strength...at present these strategies are simply "go long at this line, go short at that line". They don't use context, day type, any of that stuff.
The trade I took yesterday is indicated by red arrows on the right side of the chart. Went short and got stopped out. It's interesting that the same level offered a winning trade next time it was visited. I could have either benefited by a bigger stop, or a smaller stop and entry next time price came back.
The chart is a 45 day VWAP of the 6E. My strategy says go short when price moves from -1.25 SD (pink line) to -1.5 SD (blue line) then back to -1.25 while staying below -1.0 SD (black line). I guess it is a second entry strategy, but there are opportunities for third and fourth entries until a "reset" when price moves above -1.0 SD, or below -2 SD.
This is a modification of what @JonnyBoy calls a "standard deviation continuation short", but mofified to trigger when price comes from -1.5 SD instead of -2 SD. My strategy Uses the same levels above the VWAP (go long at 1.25 SD) as well as longs and shorts triggered by price action measured by SD's from a long term VWAP. Although a few of these setups were represented in that thread, namely "VWAP test long and short.", instead of using a "session" VWAP, I have explored longer range VWAPS.
Hello,
in the stock world, vwap is an indicator widely used in particular with big professional money managers that use it to asses the performance of traders.
Is this indicator relevant in the stock index futures world? Is it used and watched by …
I need to backtest my strategy. I suppose I will soon be asking for help regarding the in's and out's of backtesting and automated strategies, I first need to find a long term VWAP that works with NT8's strategy builder.
I am open to suggestions by post or PM. If someone thinks it doesn't make sense using the "Strategy Builder" and would be better to use a custom coded strategy, I am all ears. Ditto regarding this strategy...does it look viable? After eyeballing charts for weeks I think it is, but only with careful risk management.
I did not end up testing or implementing this system. I simply didn't have the time. The pace of my day job picked up, leaving me with less time, but a little extra money. I funded my account with $1,000 and have started trading again. I had the money in my account for a full 3 weeks before I built up the fortitude to actually click the mouse, though.
Two days in and it's gone pretty well. Both days have had a gap at the open, which I exploited. Also there have been a few clean VWAP tests. I am still fighting the demon "bored trade".
I am currently reading "The New Market Wizards." It's inspired me to take a closer look at higher timeframe setups. Screenshots are a 1 year VWAP on the 6E, NQ
I bought the VWAP package from Edevaay indicators, and I am extremely happy with both the product and the service I have gotten. As an actual trading tool it *could* be very valuable. Pretty hard to look at this chart and not spot the VWAP test setups. Maybe if I can't spend time as a full time trader I could be successful using setups like this.
One challenge is that the best opportunities only come every few weeks to every few months. Another challenge is that stops probably have to be bigger on this kind of trade.
Here's the 1 year VWAP for CL. I haven't seen too many people who set up their charts like this, but I have found it instructive to view price primarily as a value of the SD away from VWAP. It's easier to pinpoint this value with a lot of SD values. Looks like CL has been a good buy at +1.25SD and a sell maybe at +1.62SD, or even +2SD. VWAP SD's highlight the nature of these trends pretty well.
I still struggle with the idea that I haven't been able to make money doing this. It looks so easy on the left side of the page. Fear, poor execution, ...? I think my path forward would be how to identify the beginning of these moves, using cumulative delta and volume.
I really like how CL trades and I wish they would introduce a micro for it.
Wow. That's awesome news. If I tried to trade the high time frame setups in that chart I would be risking $800-$1200 a trade which isn't realistic at this time.
This is a post to request Big Mike or mods don't delete this thread.
I am still studying trading. I am short on funds and don't have a funded account right now. The real thing stopping me from trading is that I suffer from depression. I have low energy and poor work ethic. I've told myself that if I'm not exercising regularly I will not trade. As I have not begun exercising I'm still in the penalty box.
Just writing this for posterity. I am doing the right things in my life (diet, exercise + personal growth). I am also in good financial shape. Long story short, I am gearing up to re-fund my trading account. There is a lot of fear involved with this but I have to be stoic about it.
Part of my strategy is to possibly choose a different instrument to trade (not ES). My goal is to lean heavily on market internals to take very short time frame trades. I am considering MYM or MNQ. In addition to an index I will choose another instrument to study as a project for trading when I have grown my account enough to manage that risk properly.
All I ever did was lose money on the ES. In retrospect, it would be foolish for me to rule out trading it entirely.
My account has been funded for about a month. Last week I bought CME data. There have been some positives...I am looking at long term charts to determine the state of the market. I've never used RSI before and really like the insight it gives me into price action.
I'm not trading with funds and have only taken a few paper trades. There is a problem that has crept up on me, though. I noticed it in my long break from trading. I feel a ton of anxiety if I look at a chart and see "easy" trades that I could have taken. I'm kind of stuck in this place where I'm fearful to start trading but overly anxious because I feel like my life is passing me by and I will never start trading or enjoy the benefit of all this work. I am sure I will be able to trade when the time is right but things feel weird.
