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The HSI Index Futures Scalping Experiment


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The HSI Index Futures Scalping Experiment

  #171 (permalink)
 
josh's Avatar
 josh 
Georgia, US
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: Denali+Rithmic
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
Posts: 6,216 since Jan 2011
Thanks Given: 6,752
Thanks Received: 18,136

@Godzilla - how do you like that 300 point squeeze to the current HOD in the first 5 minutes?

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  #172 (permalink)
Godzilla
Brisbane, Australia
 
Posts: 206 since Nov 2013
Thanks Given: 43
Thanks Received: 353


josh View Post
@Godzilla - how do you like that 300 point squeeze to the current HOD in the first 5 minutes?

Just back from Curry lunch - yummy!

Yep - it was painful to watch and I was SO tempted to just hop-on but there were no dips for me to get on board for a safe entry.....kinda sux but it's such typical HSI behaviour.....the "herd" is strong in HK...an even bigger sell-off now - with numerous opportunities but happy to feed my curry craving to be honest.....bouncing off a good support right now...@ 22677.

I'll be back to my work-in-progress this arvo ->Opening Range Breakout Stock model this afternoon....results are looking better but need a big capital outlay to get the numbers to work(max 40 positions on at any time) ...IB has margin loans at 1.3% - but geez do I really need more leverage?

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  #173 (permalink)
Godzilla
Brisbane, Australia
 
Posts: 206 since Nov 2013
Thanks Given: 43
Thanks Received: 353


Weeks results for 25-29 May

Mon - +69tics (4/5) - great day..kids back at school !!
Tue - reported in the journal already
Wed - +46tics (4/5) - good set-ups.
Thu - reported in the journal already
Fri - +20tics - 3/4 - very frustrating day - fast for a Friday - lots of volume but poor signal bars....could read the set-ups but no good bars at the support area to get in. Switched it off early as had to take the Boss to the Dr.
Really nice not to be distracted by the kids in my office this week....

Spent a lot of hours trying to build a range breakout model for stocks this week but nothing worth reporting.....let alone putting real capital to work with. I think the best days might be behind it for this method....if anyone knows of a short-term breakout method that "might" work feel free to let me know as I'm scratching my head currently.

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  #174 (permalink)
Godzilla
Brisbane, Australia
 
Posts: 206 since Nov 2013
Thanks Given: 43
Thanks Received: 353

Weekly Results for 1-5th June 2020

M - no trading.
T +80tics - fast market (3/3) - double size on first trade by accident
W +72tics - (9/11) - too many trades -2 errors - late entry was stupid.
Th - woke up with no internet = no trading - power cord to modem faulty and Telstra is sending a new one via express mail....went out and bought the LAST one in Brisbane from Jaycar (no stock in Brisbane Telstra stores - wankers) - indication of how low quality these things are. (at least I will have a back-up once the official one arrives next week)....what a $hit-show...wasted a whole F day..why do we buy this faulty shit from C ? A: because it's cheap!
Fri +60 (5/6) - 1 error again....1st entry - no patience.

So been spending a lot of time working on the intraday breakout strategy for the ND100 stocks - think I have something that works so I'm doing some offline testing this week, but will need to do it properly and put it on the Amazon Cloud (AWS). will be bit of a learning experience for me but after looking online it doesn't appear to be that hard..after losing the internet for a half-day yesterday you really have no choice as "anything" can go wrong these days. Toying up using Python or just doing it in Excel - suggestions welcome as I need to track the intraday High & Low in real-time.

Anyway - enjoy your weekend as mine is about to start

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  #175 (permalink)
 
josh's Avatar
 josh 
Georgia, US
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: Denali+Rithmic
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
Posts: 6,216 since Jan 2011
Thanks Given: 6,752
Thanks Received: 18,136


Godzilla View Post
Weekly Results for 1-5th June 2020


Nice job! You have really admirable consistency, thanks for continuing to share! Enjoy your weekend

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  #176 (permalink)
Godzilla
Brisbane, Australia
 
Posts: 206 since Nov 2013
Thanks Given: 43
Thanks Received: 353


josh View Post
Nice job! You have really admirable consistency, thanks for continuing to share! Enjoy your weekend

Hi Josh,

I really hope you haven't jinxed me for next Mondays trading..
The real benefit of PATS is the high accuracy...as if you can read the chart you just "see" the set-ups and react.
I never made a dime day trading other methods on time-based charts so I'm sticking with it for sure.

Hope you've been well.

My "state" is still in lock-down even though we've had 1 case of Covid in 2 weeks.....it's ridiculous.

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  #177 (permalink)
emmett
New Zealand
 
Posts: 46 since May 2020
Thanks Given: 35
Thanks Received: 21


Godzilla View Post
Hi Emmett,

The blue dots are good entry points which follow one of the PATS set-ups patterns which are in summary - for the long entries (opposite for shorts) - 2EL(2nd entry longs),F2ES (failed Second entry Shorts) ,BPB (breakout pull backs),Traps (failed breakouts) - but the real secret is to "know" when each type of pattern works best.....and to ensure your reading the support/resistance levels correctly as the essence of PATS is to buy at support and sell at resistance which makes complete sense.

Best advice is to watch Macks' YT video's as he goes through each days best trading set-ups.....these are priceless - I watch them everyday to get my brain working in the correct frame-of-mind each morning.

Enjoy.

Hi Godzilla,

I've been going through your chart screenshots (many thanks!) as a sort of "test" to see if I understand your entries in accordance with PATs. Am I right in thinking you sometimes ignore the PATs entries (1 tick above/below signal bar) and just jump in if you think price is going the right way? I see a lot of blue dots (and sometimes some are absent from signal bars) but then your entires aren't necessarily immediately after the signal bar. Also, do you use an 8-tick SL, move to BE+1 after 4 ticks, and then trade a 'runner'?

Appreciate your help

Cheers

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  #178 (permalink)
Godzilla
Brisbane, Australia
 
Posts: 206 since Nov 2013
Thanks Given: 43
Thanks Received: 353


emmett View Post
Hi Godzilla,

I've been going through your chart screenshots (many thanks!) as a sort of "test" to see if I understand your entries in accordance with PATs. Am I right in thinking you sometimes ignore the PATs entries (1 tick above/below signal bar) and just jump in if you think price is going the right way? I see a lot of blue dots (and sometimes some are absent from signal bars) but then your entires aren't necessarily immediately after the signal bar. Also, do you use an 8-tick SL, move to BE+1 after 4 ticks, and then trade a 'runner'?

Appreciate your help

Cheers

Hi emmett,

I "only" use PATS entries for 99% of my trades unless I've screwed-up and pulled the trigger early or sometimes in frustration late....as Mack says you "cannot be early or late" you place your trade 1tic above the signal bar for buys and vice-versa for sells....sometime the HSI moves so fast I am late or I will submit a market order to get in if I think the market is moving strongly in my expected direction and of course you will pay the spread and my entry will not be ideal but in my experience these "aggressive" entries usually pay-off with quick profits.

Note: the correct PATS entry is always the next bar "AFTER" the signal bar....1 tick above sig bar etc for Buys.

Stop loss levels for the HSI - I knew this question would come up one day so here goes....
- Mack suggests using 8 tics BUT the correct stop "size" is 1 tick below the SIGNAL - so IF the signal bar size is 10tics then your stoploss is actually 12tics as entry 1 tick above Sig bar and stoploss 1 tick below sig bar for LONGS (same principle for SHORTS obviously) - so for a small 5 tick signal bar then your actual stoploss is 7tics (5+1+1). hope that makes it clear.

For the HSI then in principle its exactly the same but the "average" signal bar is approximately 20+tics so I am adjusting the preset -stoploss wider from the 20tick preset amount(8 tics is very rare for a sig bar in HSI) . - though sometimes I bring it in tighter on smaller sig bars as expected.....I've been burned many times trying to enter on LARGE signal bars no matter how good the quality of the set-up so I "try" to skip them and wait for the next set-up. So that covers the stoploss size and placement.

For the Target - this gets interesting as for the ES with a market level of 3000.00 and min tick of 0.25 - 4 tics = 4/12000 = 0.000333
So applying the same "proportional" target size then with HSI at 24700 then 0.000333 * 24700(1 pt = 1 tick) = 8.2approx....so I just round up to 10ticks as the target though I have back-tested with 9tics and get even better overall profits but my daily goal is 50+tics so with 3 trades at 20ticks(2 contracts@10tick target) I'm done..I like the round numbers.

I don't use runners as for me personally I'm impatient and want to hear the cash-register ring quickly as it hits my target (Its a personal decision) .....I hate to see profits evaporate and hit my stoploss level. - as a famous market wizard has said - your job as a trader is to make the cash-register ring time and time again....

Keep watching Macks YT vids is my best advice...

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  #179 (permalink)
emmett
New Zealand
 
Posts: 46 since May 2020
Thanks Given: 35
Thanks Received: 21


Godzilla View Post
Hi emmett,

I "only" use PATS entries for 99% of my trades unless I've screwed-up and pulled the trigger early or sometimes in frustration late....as Mack says you "cannot be early or late" you place your trade 1tic above the signal bar for buys and vice-versa for sells....sometime the HSI moves so fast I am late or I will submit a market order to get in if I think the market is moving strongly in my expected direction and of course you will pay the spread and my entry will not be ideal but in my experience these "aggressive" entries usually pay-off with quick profits.

Note: the correct PATS entry is always the next bar "AFTER" the signal bar....1 tick above sig bar etc for Buys.

Stop loss levels for the HSI - I knew this question would come up one day so here goes....
- Mack suggests using 8 tics BUT the correct stop "size" is 1 tick below the SIGNAL - so IF the signal bar size is 10tics then your stoploss is actually 12tics as entry 1 tick above Sig bar and stoploss 1 tick below sig bar for LONGS (same principle for SHORTS obviously) - so for a small 5 tick signal bar then your actual stoploss is 7tics (5+1+1). hope that makes it clear.

For the HSI then in principle its exactly the same but the "average" signal bar is approximately 20+tics so I am adjusting the preset -stoploss wider from the 20tick preset amount(8 tics is very rare for a sig bar in HSI) . - though sometimes I bring it in tighter on smaller sig bars as expected.....I've been burned many times trying to enter on LARGE signal bars no matter how good the quality of the set-up so I "try" to skip them and wait for the next set-up. So that covers the stoploss size and placement.

For the Target - this gets interesting as for the ES with a market level of 3000.00 and min tick of 0.25 - 4 tics = 4/12000 = 0.000333
So applying the same "proportional" target size then with HSI at 24700 then 0.000333 * 24700(1 pt = 1 tick) = 8.2approx....so I just round up to 10ticks as the target though I have back-tested with 9tics and get even better overall profits but my daily goal is 50+tics so with 3 trades at 20ticks(2 contracts@10tick target) I'm done..I like the round numbers.

I don't use runners as for me personally I'm impatient and want to hear the cash-register ring quickly as it hits my target (Its a personal decision) .....I hate to see profits evaporate and hit my stoploss level. - as a famous market wizard has said - your job as a trader is to make the cash-register ring time and time again....

Keep watching Macks YT vids is my best advice...

Thanks Godzilla, that's super helpful info

The fact you don't use a runner makes a lot of sense to me, as I believe Mack reckons, on average, price comes back to trigger your BE+1 stop about 50% of the time. Assuming 4-tick scalps, this effectively means half of the time you're risking 16 ticks (with 2 contracts) to make 5 ticks, which to me sounds very scary. I find the idea of risking 16 ticks to make 8 much more palatable (although still a bit scary!). The thought of trading that kind of R:R live and having two or three full losing trades in a row would be enough to make me super picky about entries, which I guess is why Mack hammers home the idea of the 'key entry point' and waiting for the best setups.

In your experience, how do you find the psychology of having consecutive losing trades and then knowing you need to make multiple winning scalps just to break even?

Cheers

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  #180 (permalink)
Godzilla
Brisbane, Australia
 
Posts: 206 since Nov 2013
Thanks Given: 43
Thanks Received: 353



emmett View Post
Thanks Godzilla, that's super helpful info

The fact you don't use a runner makes a lot of sense to me, as I believe Mack reckons, on average, price comes back to trigger your BE+1 stop about 50% of the time. Assuming 4-tick scalps, this effectively means half of the time you're risking 16 ticks (with 2 contracts) to make 5 ticks, which to me sounds very scary. I find the idea of risking 16 ticks to make 8 much more palatable (although still a bit scary!). The thought of trading that kind of R:R live and having two or three full losing trades in a row would be enough to make me super picky about entries, which I guess is why Mack hammers home the idea of the 'key entry point' and waiting for the best setups.

In your experience, how do you find the psychology of having consecutive losing trades and then knowing you need to make multiple winning scalps just to break even?

Cheers

Losing trades are part of the business...it's impossible to avoid them...but I do my best keep the winners rolling....I dont worry so much about the 10tic Vs 20tic loss ratio as the %winners always overwhelms the losses over time once you get good at this.
Cheers..

Watch this...

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Last Updated on December 15, 2021


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