NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





After 4 months my first profitable month started the day after I made these 3 changes


Discussion in Psychology and Money Management

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one kevinkdog with 6 posts (20 thanks)
    2. looks_two michaelroth with 3 posts (5 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Cutloss with 2 posts (5 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Linds with 2 posts (2 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one bajaho with 53 thanks per post
    2. looks_two RC33 with 5 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 kevinkdog with 3.3 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 michaelroth with 1.7 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 7,331 views
    2. thumb_up 106 thanks given
    3. group 34 followers
    1. forum 25 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments




 
Search this Thread

After 4 months my first profitable month started the day after I made these 3 changes

  #21 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 3,645 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 1,890
Thanks Received: 7,338


Cutloss View Post

I personally believe that anyone who thinks good n bad luck play a part in trading edge or profits should actually maybe rethink trying to be a trader.


I got lucky in amc though..


I did not explain myself well enough, I can see. I apologize for that.

What I meant in regards to luck:

When I develop a trading strategy, I get a historical equity curve. This equity curve could be all edge (great!) or the trading rules could somehow have taken advantage of random noise - in other words, the strategy could have gotten lucky with that data (pretty terrible).

In all likelihood, a historical backtest has some of both - performance due to edge, and performance to luck (via how well the strategy reacts to market noise).

The trick is to make sure you do not count on the luck continuing.

So I agree 100% with you that "anyone who thinks good n bad luck play a part in trading edge or profits" is a bad thing. No trader should depend on luck.

The tough part, as I see it, is that it is not always easy to know for sure what part is edge and what part is luck.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Futures True Range Report
The Elite Circle
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
My NT8 Volume Profile Split by Asian/Euro/Open
NinjaTrader
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
 

  #22 (permalink)
 
Linds's Avatar
 Linds 
Victoria, Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, MT4
Broker: NT
Trading: Bund , ASX 200
Posts: 417 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 982
Thanks Received: 533

Isn't it the case that 'luck' can have a huge effect over a small number of trades (say 10, 20 or 50) - good or otherwise - but that over a larger sample ( a few thousand) the good and bad will more or less cancel each other out. Or, the impact will be relatively small - small enough to be considered just part of trading that particular strategy.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #23 (permalink)
 Cutloss 
Midway florida
 
Posts: 243 since May 2021


Dogs sniffing is not random at all! Obviously they are looking for something and moving to better sniffs..usually they end up finding another dogs pile of poo.

Laying in bed thinking about luck vs skill. The more skillful you are the less luck involved and I would say that this inverse relationship just might be they key to understanding a solid edge. If you are in a trade n feel like you got lucky then you obviously have zero skill n zero control of the outcome

I have control over every single 1 lot I place. I can control the amount of gain and I can control the amount of loss to a point. If I forget what time it is and feds talling at 11.30 and I get long at 11.29 and mkt tanks well that was not me being unlucky that we me being asleep at the wheel! If I'm driving and die in a car crash cuz u fell asleep is that unlucky? No it's me not pulling over seeing the warning signs.

It all boils down to your own skill set with trading. Is it hard to make money consistently in the short intraday time frames...absolutely!

Over the past 10 years has it been hard to make money with nuy and hold? No!!

Reply With Quote
  #24 (permalink)
 
TickTricksta's Avatar
 TickTricksta 
London, England
 
Platform: NT8, MT4/5
Trading: FX,Futures
Posts: 23 since Nov 2021
Thanks Given: 35
Thanks Received: 34

I agree on the part about finding strategies that work for your personality.
Never try to trade like someone else. Do your own thing.
I became profitable when I focused on just a few types of entries and just kept on taking the same entries over and over.
Do I miss trades? Yes. Do I get several losses in a row? Yes, but I also get several wins in a row that surpasses the losses.

Reply With Quote
  #25 (permalink)
Frances8
Reno, Nevada
 
Posts: 5 since May 2016
Thanks Given: 2
Thanks Received: 1

There's always hidden variables - i.e. things you can't know or see. Your strategy needs a high probability of success to be able to jump over hidden variables.

Reply With Quote
  #26 (permalink)
 
Linds's Avatar
 Linds 
Victoria, Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT, MT4
Broker: NT
Trading: Bund , ASX 200
Posts: 417 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 982
Thanks Received: 533


bajaho View Post
Hey guys. I've been day trading for 4 months now, which I know isn't long in terms of trading, but I just achieved 5 straight weeks of being profitable and consistent with my strategy/rules. Previously I would have 3-7 days of profit before going deeply red.

Disclaimer: I'm not offering any proof but the ideas below are here for you to evaluate on your own. I have no reason to be deceptive. I'm not offering any service or anything. I just know that these 3 specific changes will help most traders no matter what type of trading you do.

It feels like a big breakthrough (probably not my last breakthrough) and I did 3 specific things to achieve it:

(1) I stopped micromanaging my trades. I now set a stop and a profit, that's it. I don't scale in, I don't scale out. I only break even when it falls from being within 1 or 2 ticks of my take profit, to being within 1 or 2 ticks of my breakeven point. In most cases, my stop loses X amount or my profit wins Y amount. No more micromanaging this allows you to accurately record your win-to-loss ratio, which you must use to determine if your Risk-Reward is feasible.

(2) I tailored my strategy to fit my personality. More specially, I realized that I didn't have a the necessary amount of ice in my veins to trade a strategy that loses 6 times in a row before winning. I need the positive emotional reinforcement from winning trades consistently so I tailored my R:R closer to 50% win rate.

(3) Lastly and related to #2, I had to accept that I was going to lose trades. I needed to DROP THE MINDSET that I could come out profitable everyday. The mindset of trying to win back your losses on the same day is extremely detrimental. To combat this I PLANNED ON LOSING everyday, knowing that I will be profitable with just winning every 1 out of 3 days.

*bonus* (4) READ THIS IF YOU FEEL LIKE YOU'VE HEARD THOSE THREE TIPS PREVIOUSLY. The bonus tip is that I felt like I had already been doing good following my rules and managing risk etc. However, in reality I was sometimes telling myself that "well, since I've already lost a few trades, it's not a huge deal to break my rules and take 2 more." I was convincing myself that it didn't matter if I broke my rules in this instance, so it was possible for me to keep feeling like I didn't need to work on those things more. But in reality when I stopped cheating myself IN ANY CIRCUMSTANCE, is when I began my first profitable month+. You just have to stop cheating yourself. Said otherwise, every time you enter a trade you're building a trading habit. Every trade needs to go towards building good habits.

Good post.
But with point 1 - have you determined that this way of moving to BE adds to your edge/profitability? It is a form of micro-managment really. How many of these then go on to be winners?

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote





Last Updated on December 9, 2021


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts