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2020 vision st.


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2020 vision st.

  #71 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
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low volume push, watching the VX wrap around while indexes become unstuck, CL paused

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  #72 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

kinda just in the EOM dead zone, return to PP

if VX focused, have to underline conditions for HH

given stimulus and other discounting measures, CV rates

eye of the storm, could teeter out of a semi-calm pause

but each passing day with stability decreases this

fewer limit breakers, less spiking, normalcy

VX energy resolved into quarter end

//

start of month, two-sided, pushing low range, tick has been under on low volume, some accumulation

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  #73 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
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thinking about blockchain as an explicit ledger, CB backed digital banking would avoid..

shadow banking, unknown DXY supply, as dollar demand from early 80s remains

historical representations of currency here , dominant currency prevalence causes disorder, harder to maintain

the security, ownership of crypto is problematic, loss of electricity, forgotten access, supply is reduced, but at least an increase is tracked

so yeah, blockchain could help with this huge accounting problem if problematic

//

just working on some smalls and let things develop, energy boosted but need more ticks

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  #74 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
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stuck market is stuck, can just grab smalls, needs development

supportive attempts in energy, but overall still heavy sentiment

CV uncertainty, trapped between isolation and exposure risks

//

something more collaborative besides pointing fingers please

now is not the time, past politics is a non-issue vs present danger

maybe a training ground and checkpoint for benevolence

//

boj mmt seems to be less subtle vs fed titration approach

lesson learned from sudden moves roiling mkts back then

supportive to avert meltdown crises but will not get in the way

compared to losses from accumulating topix in a DT

dxy for yen to maintain weak multi decade trend

//

so fed drips dxy, which counteracts 6JEA supply, infl

the FX market is a different beast, will explore further

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  #75 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
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in the mix, GC still pushing, crowded, BTC simmering, DXY via 6E still there

volume kinda shrivels, on pause, light

physical metal premium not fun, stackers must be nodding

still watching the VX, CL

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  #76 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
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another uncertain moment, CL dove, but GC too, faded risk, similar sentiment

CL climbing after hours, some sympathy with DXY, there are FOMC minutes after EIA

good friday closed, still low volume, flows positive

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  #77 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
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supportive events, crude turn, CV reduction to offset downtime

slow attempts to pull with a dragging effect, sidelines watching

tech capping at upper range, dampeners throughout

normalcy, carries return, cycle lows, whenever discounting finishes

the lost year to the start of a new decade, leap year, etc

//

like a low volume end of week, noting GC, 6B, CL, DXY

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  #78 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
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CL aside, the look at FX brings 6A as the carry, not AJ, as borrowers demand an increasing pool of DXY to fund AUD

metals do confirm ahead, and the coincidence of bond-equity increases such as LQD, HYG, JNK, TLT

mind the inflation is a bit wonky, artificial local air pockets like in GC or even consumer goods, even CL

supply is suppressed causing a temporary shift in price higher on demand, supply needs to equilibrate

commodities aside, index vol also shows developing signals vs 2008, also confirmed by profile

consider the DXY and vol are pushing the high range, with CB credit expansion in the mix

combined with index flows a fast corrective wave, if smaller participants, more agile, and also in reference to nomura

commod infl effect reaction to agris exposure first

then slower reaction to DJIA and SPY once sentiment returns, as CL drags

TL;DR, until total commodity picks up with sentiment, SOH but at least initial glimpses of pickup

//

the bank crisis finger pointing as moral hazard put a cap on bailouts

whereas the shift to CB-Treas removes this sentiment

as a market mover, an attempt to ameliorate sell-offs puts faith somewhere

the attempt to inject credit must work to repair liquidity if not, titrate more

seen more as a backstop than stimulus, the fed pulls back if overdone

not a panacea, or backed into a corner, black weds situation just relief, ensuring faith

basis incentives offered to banks, continue debt ops, but buybacks stopped to repair c-bonds

where some corporations side stepped moral hazard by grabbing too much low yield debt

mixed into tranches, like healthcare insurance providing for sick cases, CV-19 biz effects

some overburdened firms might drop, the toxicity gets weeded out, without the panic

overall, some pain, but interesting in parallel with CV-19 as a survivalist allegory, mini-reset

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  #79 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
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slow build after S1 low range, some positive flows, volume tapered

NQ is interesting in shallow territory, less CV sensitive maybe

both CL and GC pushing, maybe a watch on BTC

//

buildup without CL, light curl some sustain but low volume, RS watch

carry confirm, GC still running, BTC slight recovery, bonds ok

CV a reasonable pass for earnings, energy as damper

accumulators being rewarded front running optimism

TBH, not much resist and sell zone is far below

market starting to see R-R into rest of year

wierd gap way below from squeeze tho

dip buying to preserve the momo

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  #80 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107


RB not with CL, lower refining activity, CAD event tomorrow pre

virtual and automated plays still need mfg but interesting

//

sticky area to be in, VX roll and CL, but GC off a bit

have to clear the S zone though flows in check

//

week goal, stay positive, monthly stop run

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Last Updated on December 31, 2020


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