Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
I would like to suggest an unpopular response in this arena.
Don't back test. Put your energies into other facets of trading that will actually help you be a better trader.
You just answered your own question.
Trade what is in front of you NOW.
Trade the repeating patterns and hopeful expectations as they happen NOW.
Assess the stop loss level (this determines if you can even open the trade) as the chart is developing NOW.
Trade very small NOW.
Do Not Accept draw downs, shut the loss down "immediately" NOW.
The winners will come!, they take care of themselves, but don't let them reverse more than say 50% of a real profit.
Use a super fast sledgehammer stop approach to everything else.
Don't over trade NOW. More watching, less trading is a good thing.
Never let a "system" or "AI" tell you to enter a trade.
News Flash!----Successful traders don't back test...never.
Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
Posts: 2,311 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 7,341
Thanks Received: 4,518
IMHO ....Back testing is valuable.... but also a skill in an of itself. One must learn this skill by being taught (a book for example from a skilled practitioner) and through study and practice.
Just running back tests without expert tutelage won't produce fruit. It's counter intuitive.
But when he says "trade the repeating patterns" he is in effect implying that you should backtest. Otherwise, why look for patterns?
"Trad(ing) the repeating patterns" is only possible by looking at the past instances of something, good or bad. That is backtesting!
The problem is most people only look over the last few days for those patterns, or even just on their current screen. That is not enough data. I like to see years of those patterns.
Even then, as @April wisely pointed out in another thread (
I am most concerned, after reviewing your performance data, that your trading programs take only 12 trades a year; maybe 1-2-3 a month at most; OJ was only 4 trades in 1 year.
These are not day bots or even weekly bots but once in a blue moon trades …
) , there still might not be enough instances for one to feel comfortable with.
I would agree that for most people, backtesting is a waste of time, or worse -- since they do it incorrectly or haphazardly.
But when backtesting is performed correctly, it can be a great tool - one tool in a trader's toolkit.
@kevinkdog or anyone else. The book mentioned about looks incredibly interesting. Is it a book for someone who is already sitting there with ideas and programming knowledge, or would someone just starting out get value out of it?
If not any books I should read? I noticed @kevinkdog has written many.
Thanks for asking. I'd say you'd get the most out of the book if you had some ideas, but more importantly, platform experience (programming, testing). You need that to implement the approach shown in the book.
