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Get Rich or Die Trying

  #51 (permalink)
Wizard3ootz
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Posts: 55 since Aug 2019
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Thank you @BigMike! And yeah, his writing definitely speaks to me. It seems like every lesson is just another wealth of knowledge, and I am doing my best to soak up his material.



Well, it was a bit of a rough start to the week, however, I am making a concentrated effort to LEARN as much as I can from every loss. I'd like to think that gathering solid data, and building awareness around my weaknesses will help propel me where I need to be. I started using a new journal format recommended from my trading psychology book. Despite not being overly proud of my performance today (down around $50), I am committed to transparency. With no further adieu...


(EDIT: It seems like there were three, primary themes that affected my trading today. One - poor timing. I need to be timing my trades better with the stochastic, so I’m not showing up late to the party. Two - fear of loss. There were multiple instances when I pulled a good trade, during a pullback, or had my stop too close. Three - stop placement. Twice, I had the opportunity to put my stop on the other side of a trendline, but was stopped out as it was too close. And four - entries. I entered long during a bearish divergence (twice); I also entered twice, right after the trendline (and my key entry point) was broken)

(EDIT: What will I do to improve?
-Use the stochastic to time my entries, every trade.
-No entering against divergences
-Stops must be places on the other side of trendlines (greater buffer zone)
-No entering after the trendline has been broken
-Stops go below the swing low, and move to 1:1 after TP1 has been hit
-Enter w/ two contracts, so I can take profit at TP1, allowing me to put some $ in the bank, and leave one to run; either that, or one contract, since I seem to have enough anxiety as it is, and no closing the trade until stochastic has hit the cycle high/low)






DESCRIPTION:

A: Tried shorting off the trendline, under bearish delta/COT, but didn’t have a wide enough stop

B: Tried shorting again, seeing rejection to the long side, but was stopped out

C: Tried reversing my position, looking for a trade in the other direction, but didn’t have a wide enough stop.

WHAT CAN BE LEARNED:

I have to be able and willing to let my trades have room to breathe

HOW WILL I IMPROVE:

Run with wider stops, or wait for more confirmation before entering, so I don’t spook as easily







DESCRIPTION:

D: Took a trend trade, off the pullback, entering when I saw that both the COT high and low, and delta, shifted to green

WHAT CAN BE LEARNED:

I had moved my stop up to breakeven, once I had crossed the 1:1 profit mark. Prices started to retreat, however, and were getting close to my stop. I ended up pulling the trade for a few ticks, so I could still get something. However, prices went bullish right after that, and I wouldn’t have even been stopped out.

HOW I WILL IMPROVE:

I’m going to try and pay attention to the VMA, to make sure volume is still good in my direction. Also, I will respect my stop at B.E., understanding that the first attempt doesn’t always go through, but the second attempt is higher probability. Also, I will continue watching the COT low, to make sure there’s still delta on my side, in addition to the COT high, to make sure the opposing side doesn’t overwhelm us.







DESCRIPTION:

E: I had taken the trade at a good point, once delta started to shift in my direction. I had put my stop below the swing low, but prices started to hit resistance at the 1:1 profit mark. I neglected to move my stop to breakeven, but pulled it right as it went beyond me. Sadly, it went back up right after.

F: I was trying to take a second entry, but I ended up getting in right when prices were hitting absorption. The VMA was also flattening out.

WHAT CAN BE LEARNED:

E: If 1:1 is almost hit, just move it to B.E.. Don’t fuss over a tick or two.

F: DON’T SHOOT FROM THE HIP, ASSHOLE. (edit: wow, how's that for self talk?)

HOW I WILL IMPROVE:

E: Move your stop to breakeven, once you get close enough to 1:1.

F: I am going to STOP myself from shooting from the hip, at all costs. If I take several losses, I have a tendency to make stupid decisions, and take trades off of frivolous signals. Also, don’t enter when the VMA is flat. Also, try and focus on taking second entries. Lastly, stop and meditate if you take two, consecutive losses.







DESCRIPTION:

H: I entered on the pullback, after a bar with a long upper wick showed up. I am using new colorbars, and didn’t notice that the bar closed bullish (but on the bearish end of the bar). I entered when we broke that bar’s low, putting my stop above the swing high. However, bulls started stepping in, and I saw imbalances on the long side, despite the absorption at the swing high. I pulled the trade, which was the right call.

WHAT CAN BE LEARNED:

Keep an eye on the VMA. It was red, but very flat. Also, don’t forget – big ships take a long time to turn around. There was still very high cumulative delta on the long side.

HOW I WILL IMPROVE:

Watch the VMA and cumulative delta. Also, be careful taking short trades when the bar closes bullish (even if it does have a long wick).







DESCRIPTION:

L: I was trading the breakout of a support level, however, it was pretty weak. I entered, and then prices started to hit support, somewhat. I had realized how far I was down from the swing high, which made me a bit nervous. I set a relatively tight stop, however, I decided to pull the trade when it went a few ticks against me. A big short came in right after I did, however, and we were able to break lower. (note its marked L, but accidentally skipped some letters)

WHAT CAN BE LEARNED:

Had you had a better entry, this wouldn’t have been much of an issue. Try and use the stochastic so you are entering at the cycle high/low. I could also wait for the retrace to the breakout area

HOW I WILL IMPROVE:

Going to try and only take entries when I am at the cycle high/low on the stochastic.







DESCRIPTION:

M: This was a short off the retrace. The stochastic hadn’t quite made it to the 80 mark, nor had we hit the trendline. Initially things went quite in my favor; I was hoping we would hit the 2:1 profit mark, however, I noticed that the COT started coming in strong on the long side, so I decided to close.

WHAT CAN BE LEARNED:

This was a pretty good trade. You did particularly well at catching the fact that the COT low was increasing substantially, and had the good sense to close the trade.

HOW I WILL IMPROVE:

I will continue watching the opposite side (COT low if short – COT high if long) so I can see when resistance/support start kicking in.







DESCRIPTION:

N: I took a short on the top of the bull channel, which I had identified as a possible bear flag. The bulls attempted to break north of the channel, but ran into a great deal of resistance, creating some very long wicks on top. I entered when COT and delta were both in my favor. I had been hoping that we were going to break all the way through, continuing the downtrend, however, bullish momentum stepped back up and we started making new highs again. Despite that, you made the right move to close.

WHAT CAN BE LEARNED:

I had intended to take profit at 1:1, however, we started running out of momentum. I looked at the VMA, and it was relatively flat. When cumulative delta is that great, its probably not a good idea to short when the market is that bullish. If you see an attempt to break north of the channel like that, it indicates strong buying interest. If support DOES step back in, then it creates a higher probability break.

HOW I WILL IMPROVE:

Try to stay on the side of the cumulative delta, when possible. Although it appeared like a bear flag, clearly the great number of longs still in the market were eager to pump it back up again. I will also make a concentrated effort to look at the strength of the bars. I will also watch the VMA, so I can see when there is significant volume behind the opposing trend. Lastly, if it DOESN’T work, I will look for a trade contrary to my own.

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  #52 (permalink)
Wizard3ootz
Bend + OR/USA
 
Posts: 55 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 51
Thanks Received: 148

Just wanted to take a few moments to post, even if it's just a few paragraphs, so I can internalize some of what went on today. Although today wasn't a home run by any stretch of the imagination, it was a significant improvement from yesterday. I am starting to develop a strategy around keltner bands in setting profit targets, since part of my issue has been closing too soon. I'm also trying to work on holding through pullbacks, and although I did have one drawdown that I ended up closing (that would have been a good trade) I was able to hold through a much larger one, having been down about 30 ticks at one point, and still made a profit on the trade. I am trying to use the stochastic as much as possible as well, so I am not entering so deep into the move that momentum dries up shortly after entering.

My judgment was far better, overall, and I would have made some decent gains, although I got chopped up at the end a bit. We were hitting support right at a high-volume area from this morning, and it was looking like a double bottom was forming. The bulls came in super strong, and I was trying to get in off the retrace, but I underestimated the bear's persistence, and was stopped out.

Here are some common threads:
-Don't take any trades that require you to have a really deep stop (Solution: max 2-2.5pts for my stop loss)
-Look for second entries, if the first attempt doesn't go
-Hitting 3:1 r/r, just to have the trade push back toward my entry, and get out for a menial gain (Solution: two contracts, or just take profit at 3:1 and focus on consistency)
-Watch out for fake-out reversals (Solution: Monitor cumulative delta, and remind yourself that just because the market as put in 2-3 legs counter-trend, it doesn't mean there aren't people biding their time)
-Trying to enter off the pullback, but the stochastic doesn't make a full retracement (Solution: Look at how "full" the bars are looking on the previous leg, or use a volatility/momentum indicator, and don't set your profit target quite as far. Also, for example - if you're long - trail your stop by putting it below the low of the preceding bar)
-Leaving far too much money on the table (Solution: Set them brim of the keltner channel as your TP)
-Missing a lot of the good entries (Solution: Define your rules, and take every setup regardless of how you feel about it at the time. Also, become a master of watching price action.)
-Still having some difficulty w/ tension, while I have a position on (Solution: Take two trades, and take a break, then rinse/repeat. Also, could do the visualization stuff that Dr. Brett from 'The Daily Trading Coach" was talking about, where you visualize holding through drawdowns. Sounds silly, but I'm open to anything at this point, haha).

As per my stated goals from yesterday, and how I did, I'd grade myself:
Holding thru Drawdowns - B
Stop placement - B
Not trading against divergences - A
Timing - A
Fear of loss - C+ (this one still needs some work, for sure, but an improvement none the less!)

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  #53 (permalink)
Wizard3ootz
Bend + OR/USA
 
Posts: 55 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 51
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Well, today was another rough one. I let things get a little carried away, and surpassed what I would normally consider a max drawdown level. As it stands, its 11:17am right now, and I'm down just over $100 (which is a lot for me). I have not been actively monitoring my trade performance; I will track my P/L, but I am not looking at the other, more details statistics, such as consecutive wins/losses, average winner/average loser, but I am setting the intention here and now to monitor this data more closely.

I am definitely pretty frustrated right now. There were two trades where I had hit a 3:1 r/r ratio, but I decided to hold onto the trade, and they ended up reversing, and I got out with a meager gain. I am going to be taking profit regardless of trade status at 3:1 r/r from now on. I'm also in the process of trying to learn how to program indicators using pinescript, so I can have a visual layout of my trading strategy, which may make things easier to absorb in the moment. It's hard enough making quick calculations in the moment, with regard to the market energies, so I hope that I can get to a position eventually, where I can simplify these factors and streamline everything.

The rules I am trying to employ are as follows:
-Waiting for a retrace to the midline on the keltner channel
-Using the Gaussian Filter (colorbars)
-MACD +/- the zero line (in my favor) and no trading against divergences
-Using the Fibonacci retrace on the long term chart to identify possible reversal zones
-Once it hits 1:1 r/r, move stop to B.E.; once it hits 2:1 r/r, move stop to 1:1; once it hits 3:1, or pierces the wall of the keltner channel, take profit

I missed a lot of good entries due to hesitation. It's difficult to gauge whether or not to enter, when prices don't retrace all the way to the 20EMA, or the midline on the keltner channel. There were also a couple divergences I failed to identify. I had been using the elders force index, but I brought back the MACD and I think it will help somewhat.

I was able to get a really nice trade right about noon, however, I took profit way too soon. Prices had struggled at the previous swing high, and were backing up anterior to the 2:1 r/r zone. I decided to close the trade, but left a great deal of money on the table, as prices went all the way to 5:1.

Fortunately, I was able to end the day on an upnote. Extremely high volatility came in around 12:50, and the market was moving at 1000MPH. I was actually able to pull off a pretty nice scalp during this time, honing in on the delta percentages and watching the war of attrition take fold. Seeing this success, I decided to disable the overall delta/volume on my footprint chart, and trade strictly off of COT/Delta %. This is in concordance with my new 3 moving average strategy, using the gaussian filter as my fast MA, in addition to a 21/50EMA. Then, I am using my keltner channel for profit targets. Concurrently, use of the market depth that I have stacked with my footprint chart is helping me to identify when momentum is stacking up against me, or in my favor. Lastly, I am applying use of the MACD to identify shifts in momentum; I may not need the stochastic, if I just play among the ranges within the keltner channel, making sure that I am entering on a proper retrace. My goal is to simplify all of these elements, and converge them into solid trading rules, that I can apply somewhat intuitively.

Anyway, I am glad that I was able to make some money back at the end of the day. It's been a tough road, but I sense that, as long as I can make 2x what normal traders do, in learning from my mistakes, as I have been, I will have an easier time, and won't be quite as stressed dealing with the unknown.

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  #54 (permalink)
 
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 AllSeeker 
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I wasn't sure if I should say this or not, but in time of frustration its better to take a break for the session. I make most mistakes when I'm frustrated and my emotions take over.

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  #55 (permalink)
Wizard3ootz
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Posts: 55 since Aug 2019
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LastDino View Post
I wasn't sure if I should say this or not, but in time of frustration its better to take a break for the session. I make most mistakes when I'm frustrated and my emotions take over.

For sure, I am getting better at that. That’s kinda why I took time to journal lol. However, it’s easy to lose track of things when I’m in the heat of the moment, but periodically checking into my trade performance should help somewhat, particularly in tracking those consecutive win/losses.

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  #56 (permalink)
Wizard3ootz
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Posts: 55 since Aug 2019
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Unfortunately, I had another rough day yesterday, and it's given me an opportunity to sit back, reflect, and determine an appropriate response. I was listening to a webinar from Brett Steenbarger (hosted by @Big Mike none the less, and something he said [Mike] really connected with me. He states,



"What I see happen over again, thousands of times, people focus ONLY on methodology - entries and exits. They will journal it (and lets say they do this for two weeks) and its NOT working... and by the way, the way most people measure it's working is with P/L - so they decide to change, and now they have a whole new methodology, and they never seem to connect the dots... what they're doing with changing their method every time."



Man, this is me - to a T! I have changed my method countless times, and the relative success that I will see with it, initially, leads me to believe that I have come across something that will carry me forward. Brett added that if you are changing your method, it's usually an expression of frustration, which I can entirely understand. I have gone from trading on very fast timeframes (200 Tick), using methodology I got from TopDog Trading, to using Order Flow, to trading with no indicators whatsoever (like PATS Trading) but the 2k Tick/21EMA, back to order flow, to implementing the volume profile, sizing up, then scaling down again... all over the board.



He also talks about where your talents lie, with regard to your temperament, i.e. are you better at understanding patterns, or are you better with decisive thinking, particularly research, and longer term analysis. Knowing myself, my history, and personal style, I am definitely more of the fast-paced, action oriented trader. I really like scalping, and high frequency trading. With that, I think success is going to come when I can take those personal strengths, and building a strategy around it.



However, in conjunction with those tendencies for high frequency trading are my somewhat "over-controlled" personality. If a trade is not going in my direction, I am very quick to close. I have often missed good trades because I am hesitating too much. I get pretty tilted when I am in the red, and my stress levels affect my trading performance. Given that tendency to become reactive during drawdowns, I decided to trader off of the slow chart, in order to filter out some of the noise, so I'll be less apt to tilt.



I'm on SIM right now, and am currently using a 4500 tick right now, and I have been trading significantly better. Because I'm viewing things in a larger timeframe, I seem to be less apt to enter prematurely, am getting better exits, hold through drawdowns, and am more keen to reversals. Anyway, I'm going to try and keep to a slower timeframe, and simplify things somewhat. I may be picking up one of the biofeedback devices that Brett recommends as well, so I can work on the psychological side of things. And lastly, I am going to make a sustained effort NOT to keep changing my method. Like @Big Mike says, it's not good to be constantly shifting your strategy around.


Thanks for the support ya'll.

-Wiz

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  #57 (permalink)
 
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In all fairness, and considering you've only been at this a little over a year... there is a certain amount of time you will spend searching out what works for you, personally. Trying out all sorts of different methods, discarding that which does not resonate with you and revisiting those things that do... the introspection involved and the charge that alone brings about... this is all part of that process, and it's a constantly moving target.

So I'd say don't beat yourself up too badly; virtually nobody hits the ground running in this game, and it can take a lot longer than most people think to get to the point where you are synergistically comfortable with yourself, your personalized method and your expectancy. All the while you will be constantly refining all of it, slowly and surely dialing yourself into the trader you want to be.

Keep up the good work man, have a great weekend Bootz

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  #58 (permalink)
Wizard3ootz
Bend + OR/USA
 
Posts: 55 since Aug 2019
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Rrrracer View Post
In all fairness, and considering you've only been at this a little over a year... there is a certain amount of time you will spend searching out what works for you, personally. Trying out all sorts of different methods, discarding that which does not resonate with you and revisiting those things that do... the introspection involved and the charge that alone brings about... this is all part of that process, and it's a constantly moving target.

So I'd say don't beat yourself up too badly; virtually nobody hits the ground running in this game, and it can take a lot longer than most people think to get to the point where you are synergistically comfortable with yourself, your personalized method and your expectancy. All the while you will be constantly refining all of it, slowly and surely dialing yourself into the trader you want to be.

Keep up the good work man, have a great weekend Bootz

Hey long time no see! Thanks for the feedback man. And I totally know what you mean - there is definitely no "one size fits all" trading method, and although I have experience with a number of trading strategies, I am doing my best not to go about finding my niche in a haphazard way, hah. I like how you said, "it can take a lot longer than most people think to get to the point where you are synergistically comfortable with yourself, your personalized method and expectancy." This really hits the nail on the head! Appreciate the feedback, none the less. Hope all is well!

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  #59 (permalink)
Wizard3ootz
Bend + OR/USA
 
Posts: 55 since Aug 2019
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So, I am taking a tip out of Brett Steenbarger's book, and I am going to ONLY journal about the positive stuff that has been coming out of my trading (particularly since, in his opinion, the worst kinds of trading journals are the ones where you just harp on yourself, haha).

So, I watched a seminar from "Trader Tom" on trading psychology. Basically, he talks about how so many novice traders will "eat like a bird, and shit like an elephant" so to speak. Meaning, they don't hold their trades long enough, and are usually selling when the pros are adding to their positions. With that, I only took one trading during the normal session today (Sim), but I left it on for three hours - haha (which is most definitely NOT the norm for me). I have always been the type to get in and out of positions frequently, trying to capture the "max profit" and minimize my losses... I look forward to implementing this, as part of my strategy, and train myself to hold through the swings. In this instance, I had entered when I saw the MACD break the zero line, and got out when I saw the market looking like it might be putting in a double top (but to be honest, I was partially just bored).



Apart from that, I have still been reading the Daily Trading Coach, and have been doing some of the exercises. I've also been reading his blog somewhat, and look forward to getting my new Biofeedback device on Friday that he recommended, from HeartMath. The strategies I've mostly been employing have been using the 4500 tick chart, in concordance with the Keltner Channel, taking trend trades on the retrace to the midline, and exiting near the upper/lower channel lines. I'm also using the MACD to find divergences, and make sure momentum is still on my side.

I think fear of loss is definitely at the center of my issues at the moment. I can crush it on simulator all day long, which is telling. I am becoming more consciously aware of it though, in a way that I hadn't before, and it's effect on my trading performance. I have always been a very controlled, deliberate, and focused person... however, I have had a hard time (historically) relinquishing that control to the market. As long as I continue doing what I'm doing, working on my mental game, becoming keenly aware of my strengths and weaknesses, and harbor the discipline to put it into practice, things will manifest themselves eventually.

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  #60 (permalink)
Wizard3ootz
Bend + OR/USA
 
Posts: 55 since Aug 2019
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As some as you probably know, I have been struggling with my trades for quite some time. Risk management, overtrading, anxiety... all of these have been something that I have struggled with over the past year. Despite that, I never gave up, and I was finally given quite a reprieve today.

I have been reading a great deal about the market profile (specifically "mind over markets") and have been learning about auction theory. I have been paying more attention to tails on the volume profile, and trading the extremes. This was quite contrary to my trading style previously. I had been primarily trading pullbacks w/ the trend, and although there were times I faired reasonably well, I was never able to gain consistency.

I've also been studying about Bookmap, although I am still trading on NT, albeit I have MZPack - a pretty decent order flow suite that allows me to see a market depth heatmap like Bookmap.

MES started nearing the session/VP high, and I could see resistance building on the market depth. If you see the chart below, high liquidity areas are indicated by colors more red in tone, and lower liquidity either black, or closer to blue. Combining these two factors, I decided to take a short, and was able to get in within a few ticks of the swing high. Prices initially went in my direction pretty well, and I decided (rather than to keep my stop at breakeven) to give myself a wider stop, putting it above the highest # of standing orders (around 3070).

Prices went in my direction, and then moved up to test the high again. After it failed to exceed it, it dropped with pretty significant volatility. I was up around 7-8 points when it started to test the high again. I could see a significant number of buyers trying to break through the heavy resistance (my bigtrade indicator, similar to the volume dots on Bookmap, was showing pretty large orders on the buy side, but prices weren't moving any higher). I took that as confirmation, and decided to add to my position. I HAD considered adding even lower, but I'm glad I didn't, as I would have been trapped; patience is something I am REALLY trying to work on right now, as I have typically had kind of a "shoot first, ask questions later" attitude.

Prices finally broke below the heavy buying near the previous swing high, and I could see that stops were being hit. The longs started to liquidate their positions. When we approached the previous swing low, buyers were stepping up, but they started to paint a bear flag; again, I took that as confirmation. We finally broke through, hitting some resistance again @ the high volume nodes, but I was eventually able to close out one contract for a gain of around 8 points. I had initially hoped we would break through the POC and test the lows again, however, I decided to close when prices started to create somewhat of a rounding bottom; I made the right decision in closing where I did because I would have given back a significant amount of my profits.

Anyway, I am really, really happy that I have been able to take what I have been learning, and apply it to the markets. By understanding the volume profile, auction theory, and identify where the high liquidity is, I was able to achieve a very comfortable, effective win. Concurrently, one of my biggest issues has ALWAYS been not holding my trades long enough, however, entering at the extreme gave me a significant degree of confidence. Thus, I was able to hold through the pullbacks, given my entries were in phenomenal position.

KEY FACTORS:
-Using the volume profile to sell the tail of the VP high
-Identifying where high liquidity/large number of limit-sell orders were
-Entering with confidence, being able to capture/maintain a decent cushion
-Adding to my position (and choosing NOT to add without heavy liquidity backing me)
-Allowing my winners to run
-Exiting when I saw a sizable # of buy-limit orders, in confluence w/ the high volume node on the VP

Anyway, just super proud of myself. This shit has been SUCH a struggle for me, but I rejoice at being able to understand and apply what I have been learning. I hope I can continue to trade like this in the future.


MD


VP

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Last Updated on June 29, 2020


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