NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





shodson's Trading Journal


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one shodson with 573 posts (740 thanks)
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 41 posts (32 thanks)
    3. looks_3 bluemele with 12 posts (15 thanks)
    4. looks_4 cclsys with 11 posts (8 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one shodson with 1.3 thanks per post
    2. looks_two bluemele with 1.3 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Michael.H with 1.1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Big Mike with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 182,836 views
    2. thumb_up 869 thanks given
    3. group 54 followers
    1. forum 770 posts
    2. attach_file 956 attachments




 
Search this Thread

shodson's Trading Journal

  #701 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709

Tuesday, October 4th, 2011 - The gaps were very favorable today so I set up to fade it in certain zones. I got an entry, then it almost stopped me out (2 ticks away), then turned around for a nice 9+pt winner in the ES. The first hour guides were fairly mixed, but when a breakout occurred I was still in my gap trade, so I didn't do anything.

I SIM-traded CL for a while, price action trading highs and lows, pullbacks off of Donchain channels on the 377-tick chart, etc., trying something new, stopped at +1 but I was down as much as -34 ticks but I improved my experiment as the morning went on but I had to stop and get on with the day. I think I'm going to backtest this. I will track my SIM trades on a performance spreadsheet like I do with my real-money trades so I can track the performance of trading this in SIM. I did make a couple of errors in execution and not paying attention to something I should have, so that accounted for some small losses/missed profits. A computer wouldn't make those mistakes though.

ES: +37 ticks
CL (SIM): (20+5+20+20)+(-4-10-15-10-20-5) = +1 tick

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	gap-guides.png
Views:	175
Size:	76.2 KB
ID:	50919   Click image for larger version

Name:	gap-emails.png
Views:	252
Size:	419.5 KB
ID:	50920   Click image for larger version

Name:	CL-SIM-trades.png
Views:	183
Size:	54.2 KB
ID:	50922  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
Ninja Mobile Trader VPS (ninjamobiletrader.com)
Trading Reviews and Vendors
New Micros: Ultra 10-Year & Ultra T-Bond -- Live Now
Treasury Notes and Bonds
Are there any eval firms that allow you to sink to your …
Traders Hideout
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
59 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
37 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
23 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
22 thanks
The Program
19 thanks
  #702 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709

Wow, that's support! I didn't think it would get down there today, maybe in a few days, but it went straight down there and reversed almost immediately. I noticed it was around 355 while I was eating lunch. I was trying to eat as fast as I could so I could get a trade on but by the time I got on my computer it was already back up to 370-ish into the close. I actually thought about executing a trade on my phone or on my iPad but I wanted to research the strikes some more and it's too scary for me to try this on a mobile device. When I did get on a PC about 20-30mins later I put a limit order to buy a call spread but it didn't get filled. However, I did sell a 345/335 put spread to help pay for the call spread but at best it'll just put a little cash in my pocket if we stay above 342 into Nov expiry.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	AAPL-support!.png
Views:	138
Size:	45.2 KB
ID:	50939  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #703 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709


Wednesday, October 5th, 2011 - The gap guides looked pretty good, but it opened 1 tick above where I wanted it to open so no trade was taken. That was unfortunate becaise it was a 6+pt winner that filled the gap very quickly and easily.

The FHGs were mixed but with a break-out bias, but with some conflicting setup in the correlated ETFs. So I went for a long breakout later in the morning but on a deep pullback, risking 30ticks to make 90 (in the TF). It filled me, made an MFE of 30 ticks so I reduced my stop to 20 ticks then it turned around and stopped me out.

TF: -20 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	gap-notrade.png
Views:	248
Size:	15.9 KB
ID:	51062   Click image for larger version

Name:	fhg.png
Views:	264
Size:	119.5 KB
ID:	51063   Click image for larger version

Name:	0-TF-waiting.png
Views:	277
Size:	37.1 KB
ID:	51064   Click image for larger version

Name:	1-TF-entry.png
Views:	149
Size:	37.1 KB
ID:	51065   Click image for larger version

Name:	2-TF-stop moved.png
Views:	284
Size:	40.5 KB
ID:	51066   Click image for larger version

Name:	3-TF-stopped.png
Views:	272
Size:	38.2 KB
ID:	51067  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #704 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709

Thursday, October 6th, 2011 - The gap was 2 ticks too small so no gap trade was made. The 9-tick gap did easily and quickly fill.

NO TRADES

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	no-gap-trade.png
Views:	238
Size:	15.2 KB
ID:	51124  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #705 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709

Friday, October 7th, 2011 - The market opened with favorable gap guides so I took the short entry at the open, but instead going for gap fill I went for the extended target because the profit factor was higher than the profit factor of just going for gap fill, which is rare. The zone was confirmed by multiple futures and ETFs so I felt this was an easy trade to take, even with all of the bullishness after the jobs report.

After such a nice winner I wanted to not trade anymore, but I thought I'd check the first hour guides (FHGs) for completeness sake and the low fade look very attractive. I noticed we had already made new lows but had not yet hit it's target or stop. While I wanted to not trade so I could take my money off the table, I think a disciplined quantitative trader needs to take every attractive setup, no matter how much money is made or lost during the day. But by cutting and running I am assuaging my psychology and not being systematic in my trading. So I decided to reduce my risk and go long below the lows with a <1.0 risk/reward. After entering the trade I checked TRIN and the market was definitely bearish and I wanted to re-think this trade and bail out. Internals is not something I usually use but I'm studying them more and how to incorporate internal readings with the statistical data that I use and, at this point, decided to get out of this trade. I was able to get out with a small 3pt loss and avoided what would have instead been an 8pt loss.

ES: +52 and -12 ticks = +40 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	gap-guides.png
Views:	226
Size:	98.2 KB
ID:	51222   Click image for larger version

Name:	gap-trade.png
Views:	226
Size:	17.7 KB
ID:	51223   Click image for larger version

Name:	fhg.png
Views:	125
Size:	101.8 KB
ID:	51224   Click image for larger version

Name:	fade-lows-plan.png
Views:	135
Size:	34.9 KB
ID:	51225   Click image for larger version

Name:	bearish-internals.png
Views:	276
Size:	60.8 KB
ID:	51226   Click image for larger version

Name:	bailed.png
Views:	142
Size:	58.3 KB
ID:	51231  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #706 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709


Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #707 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709

Monday, October 10th, 2011 - We had large up gaps in a favorable D-H zone. These above highs/below lows are tough to trade because you have to think how large of a gap you want to allow yourself to trade, and I sometimes get a little greedy thinking I can get a huge win when the gaps are this large and the guides are that favorable. However studies show gaps > 40% of the previous day's range are riskier. In my guides spreadsheet I have a MIN and MAX levels that point these levels out to me. TMIN and TMAX are 40% of the ATR(5) instead of the previous day's range, which are usually a little looser and wider. (the "T" stands for "Tim", the name of the coach at MTG that uses this rule for min/max gap sizes). Even so, I still set up to fade gaps outside of those ranges because of the strong profit factor and because the big gap win I had on Friday felt so good and I wanted more. However, it cost me 10+ pts.

I saw a trade setting up and went into SIM mode, afraid I might revenge trade. The FHGs came out and there was a slight edge to fading a high break-out. I checked TRIN and it was still bullish, so the trend was in my favor. I then noticed TRIN getting more bullish as price was dropping, so there was a divergence between the futures price and the underlying stock market. Also, this chart looked like it was making a bull flag, so I put in a limit order 1pt below my signal bar close and got filled 1tick above the bottom of the bull flag with a stop of 2ATR and a target of 4ATR using the 3min chart. Price hit 50% of my target so I went BE+1 ("don't let a winning trade turn into a loser"). Price floundered around for quite a while but TRIN continued getting more bullish, which tells me either futures are underpriced or stocks are overpriced and are becoming exhausted. Price then moved up and came 1 tick from hitting my target, then turned lower. I tightened my stop to 50% of the target and was stopped out for +3pts

ES: -41 ticks
ES: +12 ticks (SIM)

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	gap-guides.png
Views:	207
Size:	43.5 KB
ID:	51410   Click image for larger version

Name:	gap-play.png
Views:	254
Size:	41.1 KB
ID:	51411   Click image for larger version

Name:	gap-loser.png
Views:	119
Size:	18.3 KB
ID:	51412   Click image for larger version

Name:	TRIN1.png
Views:	127
Size:	40.2 KB
ID:	51415   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES-entry.png
Views:	122
Size:	36.2 KB
ID:	51416   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES-tighten.png
Views:	247
Size:	37.4 KB
ID:	51417   Click image for larger version

Name:	TRiN2.png
Views:	131
Size:	39.2 KB
ID:	51422   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES-1tick.png
Views:	243
Size:	36.3 KB
ID:	51433   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES-out.png
Views:	253
Size:	32.9 KB
ID:	51435  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #708 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709

Nice bounce off of the 50 fib into the close. Also, this is what MTG calls a "gap gotcha", where, if the gap does not fill during the day, everybody that got short, going for gap fill, will be forced to cover into the close and so you can often get nice rallies like this into the close on unfilled gap days. I've never traded these, but many people at MTG do and they've been having good success with them.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	50-fib.png
Views:	157
Size:	40.1 KB
ID:	51481   Click image for larger version

Name:	gap-gotcha.png
Views:	159
Size:	85.3 KB
ID:	51482  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #709 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709

Descending channel broken to the upside, market looks bullish from here. We'll see if we get a golden cross while we're at it.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	spy.png
Views:	126
Size:	79.5 KB
ID:	51493  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #710 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709


Interesting how even during this bearish-looking pullback, TRIN remained, and even strengthened, it's bullish reading. So the prices were down, but the volume wasn't heavy enough to raise TRIN.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	TRIN-divergence.png
Views:	252
Size:	106.5 KB
ID:	51497  
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on December 10, 2020


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts