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TradeTheBar Daily Journal

 
 
MiniP's Avatar
 MiniP 
USA,USA
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kareem40 View Post
I am thinking in one day, cut and all is good with China kind of news. That is the only way they can keep this market going.
Bears have been waiting for almost 10 years and they are pissed!!


K

if we get a china deal/news and a cut in one day the market would be so happy it wouldn't know how to react lol

-P

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 mtzimmer1 
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I don’t think we’re going to see either a rate cut or a china deal. Even if we do hear talks of either, I think the market will move lower. Too much talk and too little follow-through leaves market participants feeling untrusting of the talking heads.

Maybe I am just an eternal bear!

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bobwest's Avatar
 bobwest 
Western Florida
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kareem40 View Post
I am thinking in one day, cut and all is good with China kind of news. That is the only way they can keep this market going.
Bears have been waiting for almost 10 years and they are pissed!!


K

First off, I know absolutely nothing about this, which is not going to stop me from talking about it, but I think I should give fair warning.

Certainly the administration would like more cuts, and the president has been talking up rate cuts lately. Also, it looks like markets would like them now too, unless the bears are going to come back in, of course.

My view is that it would be extremely surprising if the Fed made another cut any time soon. Reasons? (And remember the warning I just gave ):

- The Fed tends to be really cautious and knows the impact of its actions can be very broad, affecting national economies, here and elsewhere, and sometimes the world economy.

- The Fed has a few political types on its board, but mainly has real economists, who generally want to act out of real economic reasons (sure, they obviously know about politics too.) Call me naive, but I think they care more about doing their job than about doing what the administration wants. The president can try to jawbone them down, and may succeed (it has happened in the past), but it doesn't always.

- As far as I can tell (refer back to the warning I gave), the recent easing was a step taken as a possible preventative against a slowdown. I think they probably will want to wait to see what happens.

Essentially, I think the Fed's motivations and the president's are not necessarily the same. All presidents want the Fed to help them out. I think (and hope) that this Fed will stay independent.

(I just realized that most of what I wrote is more about the Fed and the administration, not about the Fed and the markets. The markets are much more a matter of the Fed's concern, but here I also think they will be slow to act, out of institutional caution. if nothing else.)

As to the actual merits, whether the Fed should cut more or not, I don't have any idea about that either. I just think the Fed will try not to do too much, too soon. Whether this kind of caution is a good idea or not is way outside my area of expertise.

Bob.

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kareem40's Avatar
 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
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Interesting view from both, thank you. My guess with the cut is that we, USA, owe so much money that we need to keep rates down. Paying very high rates on our bonds can break our budget. So, how can the Fed justify cutting rates with lowest unemployment in many years and strong market. By creating a China "drama" and ask big drop days, such as yesterday.

There are hints for both surprise rate cut and tariff deal, I think. Soon.

Good trading to all,
K

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kareem40's Avatar
 kareem40 
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I missed it and still flat, but we may re-test for demand.

K

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 kareem40 
Dallas, TX
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Looking good so far. This is small size to try my VSA setups on Forex.



K

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kareem40's Avatar
 kareem40 
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some positive news with a VSA/PA setup. I will bail with a close under the trendline and add as it goes into profits


K

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kareem40's Avatar
 kareem40 
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With some profit. Even though it was a good technical set up, Trump started to speak and I did want want to chance another tariff negative news.




K

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kareem40's Avatar
 kareem40 
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Yes, I am not working today



K

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kareem40's Avatar
 kareem40 
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How do you trade SI? Very very carefully.



K

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Last Updated on June 6, 2023


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