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Example: Here is an example of a possible price action setup. We have any average and in this case a 21 ema at the center of the Keltner Channel. We notice that the price has been trending up above the middle for a while and has now pulled back into congestion. We see that the tails try to close below the average and mostly close above. We have an upbar close above the 21 ema and some continuation upward. We can open a trade long with a target of 4 ticks and the stop below the congestion. If the price does not move in our direction after 3 bars we exit. If we have a sudden pullback we exit and wait to see where price is going. If we are stopped out, we wait and check for news events or ecb speeches that we might have missed. We also re-check the larger time frames to make sure we are in agreement with the overall direction. In addition to these ideas, we check our DOM to see if the prices are lifting or falling and by how much. Are the prices pulling back 1-2 ticks or do we have 5-10 tick movements. We check to see where the middle of the price distribution is in relation to our current price. Are we at the tails of the distribution or are we seeing price move back to the middle. Other factors of course are time of day, day of week, month. I also look for a positive expectancy for each trade idea. For the expectancy, you can run a backtest of trade setups and save to a spreadsheet for the targets. A few simple calculations for each target hit or stopped out will give you an idea of the validity of the setup.
Question about using a stop loss. From some of the screenshots some of your trades we deep negative, like thousands $$$, before turning around. Since you're not using a stop loss, have you ever had the trade go so against you that you're margin called?
When I had a smaller account, I had a few problems with the margin. After I changed to 1 lot per 5k, I have a bit more room to let the trade go against me. I will enter half of my lots at a trade area and leg in the other half at about 10-40 ticks pullback if needed. Any more than that and I take a loss and go to the next trade. I normally try to trade slower times of the day when large moves are not expected. A better approach for most people would be to set an 8-10 tick stop loss.
