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Snax's /ES & /CL Trading Journal

  #231 (permalink)
 
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 vmodus 
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snax View Post
I have 2 actual(!) set-ups now that when the oppotunity arises, I am confident enought to trade with the ES instead of the MES. This is huge for me because I'm mainly a "feel" trader and I'd had doubts as to whether I would find any actual consistent "setups", but that's what a little bit of trading experience can do for you. I know they still only have a 50% chance of being profitable in any particular trade, but I have found them to be skewed to the positive side in the past.

Great work @snax, and I'm glad to read that you have a high level of confidence in your system. You have done a lot of the hard work to get to where you are.

Enjoy your long holiday weekend and stay safe. See you on the other side of the break.

~vmodus


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  #232 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
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vmodus View Post
Great work @snax, and I'm glad to read that you have a high level of confidence in your system. You have done a lot of the hard work to get to where you are.

Enjoy your long holiday weekend and stay safe. See you on the other side of the break.

~vmodus


Thank you so much, @vmodus! I am hoping that your latest strategy is consistently profitable, and I hope you enjoy the weekend as well.

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  #233 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
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sketched market-profile for May 24, 2019

2842.00 A
2841.75 A
2841.50 A
2841.25 A
2841.00 A
2840.75 A
2840.50 A
2840.25 A
2840.00 A
2839.75 A
2839.50 A
2839.25 A
2839.00 A
2838.75 A
2838.50 A
2838.25 AB
2838.00 AB
2837.75 AB
2837.50 AB
2837.25 AB
2837.00 AB
2836.75 AB
2836.50 AB
2836.25 AB
2836.00 AB
2835.75 AB
2835.50 AB
2835.25 AB
2835.00 ABH
2834.75 ABH
2834.50 ABH
2834.25 ABHI
2834.00 ABHI
2833.75 ABGHI
2833.50 ABGHI
2833.25 BCGHI
2833.00 BCGHI
2832.75 BCGHI
2832.50 BCGHI
2832.25 BCGHI
2832.00 BCGHI
2831.75 BCGHIL
2831.50 BCGHIJL
2831.25 BCGHIJKLM
2831.00 BCGHIJKLM
2830.75 BCGHIJKLM
2830.50 CGHIJKLM
2830.25 CFGHIJKLM
2830.00 CFGHIJKLM
2829.75 CFGJKLM
2829.50 CEFJKLM
2829.25 CEFJKLM
2829.00 CEFJKLM
2828.75 CEFJKLM
2828.50 CEFJKM
2828.25 CEFJKM
2828.00 CEFJM
2827.75 CEFJM
2827.50 CEFJM
2827.25 CEFJM
2827.00 CEFJM
2826.75 CEFJM
2826.50 CEFM
2826.25 CDEFM
2826.00 CDEFM
2825.75 CDEFM
2825.50 CDEFM
2825.25 CDEFM
2825.00 CDEF
2824.75 CDEF
2824.50 CDE
2824.25 CDE
2824.00 CDE
2823.75 CDE
2823.50 CD
2823.25 CD
2823.00 CD
2822.75 CD
2822.50 D
2822.25 D
2822.00 D
2821.75 D
2821.50 D
2821.25 D
2821.00 D
2820.75 D



Another compact "normal-variation" profile for Friday. We opened and immediately pushed higher, setting the upper extreme for the day. Linking this profile to that of the prior day, we saw a single-print selling tail on thursday's open from 2832.25 to 2829.00. The fact that we opened a bit higher, I suppose you could look for similar behavior on this day as we did in fact see. If you played this right you could have gotten fantastic trade-location and holding through C and D periods as price pushed down further. E,F, and G periods provided good trading opportunites as well. Value-area finished higher than Thursday. Single-print buying tail in D period showed that value had moved higher and price was rejected in an area that had traded a lot the previous day.

readings:
bearish engulfing pattern (i see an instance of this as well as a few instances of the bullish variety of this pattern on the 5min bars from Friday. I'll keep an eye out for it. I don't tend to think in terms of patterns but I try to keep an open mind.)

Wyckoff - accumulation and distribution

"reading price charts bar by bar" - preface
- initial thoughts: really struck a chord with me, there seems to be a useful
confluence of ideas from the three books i'm reading right now which are 'mind over markets',
'reading price charts bar by bar' and 'fooled by randomness'. interesting that i just recently moved
back to 5min bars as that seems to be the author's preference as well.

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  #234 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
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"reading price charts bar by bar" - preface

key takeaways from the preface:

- "I freely recognize that every one of my reasons behind each setup is just my opinion and my reasoning about why a trade works might be completely wrong. However, that is irrelevant."
-- This resonates with me because I often have this feeling of "fuzzy reasoning". There are so many variables involved that it is hard for us to be certain why something worked for us. We want to put a label and rules around that something because then we have hope that we can find repeatavle success with it. In the end, if we are successful, does it matter what the reason was? Maybe, for instance if we are using a strategy that works well in a trending market and we decide we understand it, only to find out it mysteriously fails sometimes and we don't know why (bracketed market). But I think what the author means is that these price-action behaviors behave consistently for him and he believes he knows why, but accepts that the reason for his success may be different than his reasoning and he is ok with that. The reasons why something works are separate from the setup, and irrelevant to his trading. This is an important point i think.

"It uses many of the standard techniques described by Edwards and Magee"
-- Didn't know about this stuff, I should probably research their ideas and techniques.

"I believe that there is something to be learned from every tick that takes place during the day and that there are far more great trades on every chart than just the few obvious ones, but to see them, you have to understand price-action, and you cannot dismiss any bars as unimportant."
-- This pretty much sums up my excitement about trading. I think there are opportunities all over the place, especially in the little price-oscillations that I typically wait around watching for something "bigger" to happen. I really want to find actionable ways to take advantage of more of what the market has to offer on any given day.

"The goal for most traders is to maximize trading profits through a style that is compatible wit htheir personalities. Without that compatibility, I believe that it is vertually impossible to trade profitably long term."
-- I think each trader should try to create their own style first, find what works and what doesn't, and research things to mix in to fix the problems, but all the while maintaining the style they are comfortable with and developing their own concepts and ideas over time.

"...This was all extemely helpful because it showed all of the things that I needed to avoid before becoming successful."
-- I often feel like my trading thus far has been more a sequence of cordoning-off, or blocking adverse behaviors and ideas, rather than making leaps forward because of anything I was gaining as some epiphany. Its like I'm telling myself what not to do over and over, accumulating a set of things as undesirable, till all that's left is a set of things that actually might help me trade effectively.

"Every conveivable event has a probability, and so do events that you have yet to consider."
-- Dovetails nicely with what i've been reading by Taleb.

"There is one other problem with the news, invariably when the market makes a huge move, the reporters will find some confident, convincing expert who predicted it and interview them, leading the viewerd to believe that this pundit has and uncanny ability to predict the market, sepite the untold reality that this same pundit has been wrong in his last 10 predictions."
-- see "monkeys and typewriters", "fooled by randomness" by Taleb.

"The most obvious example is trading the 1-minute chart. Since it looks the same as the 5-minute and since you can make many winning trades day trading it, it is logical to conclude that you can use it as your primary chart. However, too many of the best trades happen too fast to catch and you will find yourself left with the second-tier trades. Over time you will either go broke or make substantially less than you would off the 5-minute chart."
-- Never considered this, I usually went with which one "felt right". I am interested in this difference now.

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  #235 (permalink)
 
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 bobwest 
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I very much like the first point, and I agree with how you interpret it.

Brooks has a worked-out explanatory story about what the institutions and their computers are doing at just about every point. For instance, he'll tell you things like "some computers are using this measured move, and some others are [doing whatever]," and then he'll tell you why this or that trade should be done as a result.

Now (and again, not everyone is likely to agree), I am pretty sure that there are no computers in institutions that are doing Brooks-type chart analysis at all (they are doing their own stuff), and while I don't know this for sure, Brooks doesn't know if they are or are not either. (Don't get mad at me, @Pa Dax. I like Brooks.)

"I freely recognize that every one of my reasons behind each setup is just my opinion and my reasoning about why a trade works might be completely wrong. However, that is irrelevant."

It is irrelevant, and he recognizes it, and power to him for being aware of what he is doing. He's got a consistent way to interpret price action that yields usually-profitable trades. This is the important thing. If he went to these institutions and found out they aren't doing anything like what he supposes, would his trades stop working? Nope.

But if it works doesn't that mean that it's true? No, it means that it works. There may be other theories that work, too. How can it be possible that something that may not be true can actually work? Well, we know that the earth really travels around the sun, not the sun around the earth. But if you carefully study the apparent motion of the sun across the sky at different times and seasons, you will soon be able to predict with great reliability when sunrise and sunset will happen on any day of the year. You've got a theory that works. Later, you may find out it has problems. In the meantime, you can make reliable predictions that people can count on. In other words, it works.

There are many theories and explanations about trading, and some do work in the right hands (and often not in the wrong ones.... it's not always just a matter of the theory, explanation or method.)

I have to confess that I never quite got the hang of Brooks, and not for lack of trying, but it's easy to see that the method works fine in the right hands, because we have traders who are using it. There are other traders who are using methods that are totally different. If you can make money with either or both, that's what is relevant.

So thanks for these quotes. I really like them.

Bob.

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  #236 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
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bobwest View Post
I very much like the first point, and I agree with how you interpret it.

Brooks has a worked-out explanatory story about what the institutions and their computers are doing at just about every point. For instance, he'll tell you things like "some computers are using this measured move, and some others are [doing whatever]," and then he'll tell you why this or that trade should be done as a result.

Now (and again, not everyone is likely to agree), I am pretty sure that there are no computers in institutions that are doing Brooks-type chart analysis at all (they are doing their own stuff), and while I don't know this for sure, Brooks doesn't know if they are or are not either. (Don't get mad at me, @Pa Dax. I like Brooks.)

"I freely recognize that every one of my reasons behind each setup is just my opinion and my reasoning about why a trade works might be completely wrong. However, that is irrelevant."

It is irrelevant, and he recognizes it, and power to him for being aware of what he is doing. He's got a consistent way to interpret price action that yields usually-profitable trades. This is the important thing. If he went to these institutions and found out they aren't doing anything like what he supposes, would his trades stop working? Nope.

But if it works doesn't that mean that it's true? No, it means that it works. There may be other theories that work, too. How can it be possible that something that may not be true can actually work? Well, we know that the earth really travels around the sun, not the sun around the earth. But if you carefully study the apparent motion of the sun across the sky at different times and seasons, you will soon be able to predict with great reliability when sunrise and sunset will happen on any day of the year. You've got a theory that works. Later, you may find out it has problems. In the meantime, you can make reliable predictions that people can count on. In other words, it works.

There are many theories and explanations about trading, and some do work in the right hands (and often not in the wrong ones.... it's not always just a matter of the theory, explanation or method.)

I have to confess that I never quite got the hang of Brooks, and not for lack of trying, but it's easy to see that the method works fine in the right hands, because we have traders who are using it. There are other traders who are using methods that are totally different. If you can make money with either or both, that's what is relevant.

So thanks for these quotes. I really like them.

Bob.

Thanks @bobwest!

I've been looking forward to starting this book, I really like the way brooks is disassembling the individual bars and piecing them back together to form these tiny catalysts for bigger price-movement. I think its a nice complement to dalton's mind over markets and how its attempting to show you the bigger picture, they form a nice tandem for thinking about the market in big and small terms I think.

I can tell brooks' books are going to be a long, careful read too. Each paragraph is a lot of work because I'm unfamiliar with a lot of the terminology he's using like High 2 long, etc. Its good in that I'll learn a ton just getting up to speed to understand what he's talking about.

Hope you're enjoying the weekend, cheers!

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snax View Post
Thanks @bobwest!



I've been looking forward to starting this book, I really like the way brooks is disassembling the individual bars and piecing them back together to form these tiny catalysts for bigger price-movement. I think its a nice complement to dalton's mind over markets and how its attempting to show you the bigger picture, they form a nice tandem for thinking about the market in big and small terms I think.



I can tell brooks' books are going to be a long, careful read too. Each paragraph is a lot of work because I'm unfamiliar with a lot of the terminology he's using like High 2 long, etc. Its good in that I'll learn a ton just getting up to speed to understand what he's talking about.



Hope you're enjoying the weekend, cheers!


Good to see you’re looking into Brooks. I would recommend that instead of fighting your way through his first book, you get his three newer books which are essentially a rewrite. I can also recommend his video course.


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  #238 (permalink)
 
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 snax 
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(Day 71 - May 24, 2019 - NO TRADES)

Day 72

Read a lot of Dalton and Brooks over the long weekend, TBH I'm going to have to re-read the first few sections of CH1 that I read from Brooks' RPCBBB because it is full of all kinds of information, a lot going through my head right now, just trying to focus on what I've been doing up to now.

@7:50AM CST - Looks like we'll be opening up in range and within the value-area from last Thursday, so this could be a balanced day with a similar range to Thursday, roughly ~22 points of range. Anything can happen, but that is my estimate for today's market if something doesn't change here soon.

@8:30AM - Opening-Bell we are just beginning to drive up to the top of Thursday's value-area and through.

@8:50AM - I open a working order to go short 1 contract in the /MESM9 @2841.25. I miss out as price drops away.




@8:55AM - I adjust my entry to 2840.50 but it is too high again by a tick or two and I don't get filled, so I cancel the order.

@9:01AM - I think it must be all the brooks i've been reading, but I look over the reversal pattern and decide that the second bear bar would make for a good signal bar to be a grizzly bear and go short way after I usually would have stepped aside because after the previous two failed attempts at getting filled I would normally feel like I'm chasing this. The bear bar closes, becoming my signal bar and I enter a working order 1-tick below the close of the prior bear trend signal bar, entering @2838.50. I get filled, stop is @2840.50. It really chops around and I fear that this experiment may go against me but then just like that price begins to drop. I have little endurance left though.

@9:11AM - I adjust my stop down to 2836.50 to lock in a profit, hoping I haven't inched up too close to the current futures price. I almost was patient enough but not quite, price pushes back up slightly, just enough to hit my stop and close me out with a +8-tick gain.




Price drops to the 50% fibonacci-retracement of Thursday's RTH/NYSE High/Low range, thus granting a maximum-favorable-excursion of 2930.50 - 2931.50 = 7 points, or 28-ticks. Probably on its way down to ONL/pLOD of Thursday.

So I grabbed:

(8 / 28) * 100 = 28.57%

of that maximum favorable excursion (MFE).

That leaves a lot of room for improvement, so I will keep tracking this as much as I can without interfering with trading opportunities moving forward.




That is a good place to switch over to work for now and let the market develop. I am happy I tried adding some new strategies to my repertoire, and took the time to see how poor my trade-management is quantitatively.

It pushed down even further after that but I feel that was the max I would have held realistically at this point in my trading.

Final results for now:




= Retro =
1. Nice trade to grab 8-ticks, though trade-management prevented it from being better. Now that I'm starting to track MFE this should improve since I'll have more confidence in the stats moving forward.


Summary
=======
1. +8-tick gain; MESM9 - 1 contract
=======
Final: +8-ticks




What i liked:
- New type of trade inspired by "Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar" by Al Brooks. I entered a bit later (for me) into a bear trend and it paid off nicely. Hoping to keep expanding my repertoire slowly by recognizing more trading opportunities.



What I didn't like:
- Only was able to pull in 28.57% of the MFE from that first leg down. Went even further after a couple of doji "pause" bars.


Goals for Tomorrow:
- Keep focusing on driving risk/reward-ratio and expectancy up.
- Keep pushing to trust my plan.
- Slowly gain more trades in my repertoire
- Keep reading "Competent - Long-Term Trading" section of Mind over Markets
- Keep reading RPCBBB
- Stop being lazy and start doing my probability theory homework a tiny bit each night.
- price-action & market-profile homework.



expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (4 + 4 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 4 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 11 + 20 + 8) / 14 = 7.5000 ticks
avg loss = (43 + 4 + 8 + 16) / 4 = 17.7500 ticks
% win = (14 / 18) = 0.7778
% loss = (4 / 18) = 0.2222
current cycle expectancy = (7.5000 * 0.7778) - (17.7500 * 0.2222) = 1.8895 ticks


accumulated expectancy
avg win = 10.8333 ticks
avg loss = 9.4444 ticks
% win = (60 / 87) = 0.6897
% loss = (27 / 87) = 0.3103
expectancy = (10.8333 * 0.6897) - (9.4444 * 0.3103) = 4.5411 ticks


progress towards challenge goal
$600.00 total profit goal. +16-tick Daily goal.
$42.50 achieved.
$0.00 current drawdown
17 trades of 60 entered.
I need (557.50/43) = $12.97 per trade ~ +11-ticks per trade to hit my target.
current expectancy for cycle is 1.8895 ticks

My Theoretical Average for MES is currently $2.36

For the week I am +8-ticks.

I'm pretty far off-track. Keep the current win% up and keep grinding out the winning trades for bigger returns while maintaining consistent manageable losing trades. Keep grinding out positive p/l for each individual week as an ongoing goal.

~~~~ HOMEWORK - placeholder ~~~~

sketched market-profile for May 28, 2019

2841.25 A
2841.00 A
2840.75 A
2840.50 A
2840.25 AB
2840.00 AB
2839.75 AB
2839.50 AB
2839.25 AB
2839.00 AB
2838.75 AB
2838.50 AB
2838.25 AB
2838.00 AB
2837.75 AB
2837.50 AB
2837.25 AB
2837.00 AB
2836.75 AB
2836.50 AB
2836.25 AB
2836.00 AB
2835.75 AB
2835.50 AB
2835.25 AB
2835.00 AB
2834.75 AB
2834.50 AB
2834.25 AB
2834.00 AB
2833.75 ABCDG
2833.50 ABCDFG
2833.25 ABCDFG
2833.00 ABCDFG
2832.75 ABCDFG
2832.50 ABCDFG
2832.25 ABCDFG
2832.00 ABCDFG
2831.75 ABCDFG
2831.50 ABCDFG
2831.25 ACDFG
2831.00 ACDFG
2830.75 ACDEFG
2830.50 ACDEFGH
2830.25 ACDEFGH
2830.00 CDEFGH
2829.75 CDEFGH
2829.50 CDEFGH
2829.25 CDEFGH
2829.00 CDEFGH
2828.75 CDEFGH
2828.50 CDEGHI
2828.25 CDEGHI
2828.00 CDEHI
2827.75 CDEHI
2827.50 CDEHI
2827.25 CDEHI
2827.00 CDEHI
2826.75 CDEHI
2826.50 CEHI
2826.25 CEHI
2826.00 CEHIJ
2825.75 CEIJ
2825.50 CEJ
2825.25 CEJ
2825.00 EJ
2824.75 EJ
2824.50 EJ
2824.25 J
2824.00 J
2823.75 J
2823.50 J
2823.25 J
2823.00 J
2822.75 J
2822.50 J
2822.25 J
2822.00 J
2821.75 JK
2821.50 JK
2821.25 JK
2821.00 JK
2820.75 JK
2820.50 JK
2820.25 JK
2820.00 JK
2819.75 K
2819.50 K
2819.25 K
2819.00 K
2818.75 K
2818.50 K
2818.25 K
2818.00 K
2817.75 K
2817.50 K
2817.25 K
2817.00 K
2816.75 K
2816.50 K
2816.25 KL
2816.00 KL
2815.75 KL
2815.50 KL
2815.25 KL
2815.00 KL
2814.75 KL
2814.50 KL
2814.25 KL
2814.00 L
2813.75 L
2813.50 L
2813.25 L
2813.00 LM
2812.75 LM
2812.50 LM
2812.25 LM
2812.00 LM
2811.75 LM
2811.50 LM
2811.25 LM
2811.00 LM
2810.75 M
2810.50 M
2810.25 M
2810.00 M
2809.75 M
2809.50 M
2809.25 M
2809.00 M
2808.75 M
2808.50 M
2808.25 M
2808.00 M
2807.75 M
2807.50 M
2807.25 M
2807.00 M
2806.75 M
2806.50 M
2806.25 M
2806.00 M
2805.75 M
2805.50 M
2805.25 M
2805.00 M
2804.75 M
2804.50 M
2804.25 M
2804.00 M
2803.75 M
2803.50 M
2803.25 M
2803.00 M
2802.75 M
2802.50 M
2802.25 M
2802.00 M
2801.75 M
2801.50 M
2801.25 M
2801.00 M



Really interesting profile today, upper extreme of range established during A period. Tired, will sort it out tomorrow, bearish closing range, as bearish as I've seen.

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Uh oh.. This could be the set-up to a huge move to the downside. I've been thinking about it since Saturday- I could be totally wrong- but a head and shoulders in the daily seems significant to me. If there's going to be a move, I hope it's tomorrow morning and not overnight. If we get it, I'm trading live!

I saw your reply and was like "IT'S HAPPENING".. scared me, @snax

(Disclaimer: Just my opinion, but let it influence your trading decisions.)

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