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Lost & losing hope


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Lost & losing hope

  #191 (permalink)
 
WoodyFox's Avatar
 WoodyFox 
Columbus, Ohio
 
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glennts View Post
It's not clear to me what it is about my comments that led you to this question... I've not complained about fees and commissions but accept them as a fact of life. Leverage, like commissions, are one of the tools that brokers use to attract our business. Brokers use margin requirements to limit their exposure to the risk associated with offering leverage. We all make assertions of income and liquidity to the NFA to qualify for this access to leverage. Compare IB's margin and maintenance requirements to AMP's and you can see how this game is played. Because we have been programmed since birth to be mindless consumers we have come to associate cost with quality. Create a successful top shelf image / brand and that it costs more is to be expected and this is often viewed as confirmation of quality. That the upper and lower range of brokers offer a quality of service that may be identical really doesn't matter. If I say I use IB then I am wrapping myself in an image of a successful trader and on some level, garnered a bit of respect. If I brag about my broker letting me trade Micro's with only a few hundreds of dollars in my account, I'm announcing that although I may not see it coming, I'm soon to be road kill.

A saying from the Gold Rush Days is that the real wealth was acquired by those who sold the picks, shovels and denim jeans (Levi Strauss) to those who were doing the digging. That's the brokerage model. They provide access to the markets and we do the digging certain that there is gold to be found.


OK,
You have a handle on the importance of the broker...We agree on the subject.

You simple see it as the "sum to zero, and I see it as a zero sum game with added business expenses. Agree do disagree. Cool.

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  #192 (permalink)
Nitbean
Lincoln, NE
 
Posts: 12 since Oct 2019
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I feel very similarly to OP (although I’ve started trading much more recently)
There is so much conflicting information on the internet. Even if you look into similar philosophies of trading, there are several different schools of thought each with their own unique spin. There’s no doubt in my mind that some of them, maybe even conflicting ones, can be profitable, but I’m also certain that there are certain plans/ways of looking at the market that will never lead to consistent profits no matter how rigorously they’re practice or mastered.

The problem with a lot of these is that there’s no way to test them because they are all “discretionary”

From a beginners perspective it’s all so noisy it’s hard to separate the wheat from the chaff (and if I was able to I wouldn’t need the help in the first place)

I’m contemplating looking for a mentor directly that I can verify, at least that way there’s no doubt that the system has the potential to lead to profitability and I won’t be wasting my time practicing and learning.

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  #193 (permalink)
 
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 Salao 
Los Angeles CA
Market Wizard
 
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Nitbean View Post
I feel very similarly to OP (although I’ve started trading much more recently)
There is so much conflicting information on the internet. Even if you look into similar philosophies of trading, there are several different schools of thought each with their own unique spin. There’s no doubt in my mind that some of them, maybe even conflicting ones, can be profitable, but I’m also certain that there are certain plans/ways of looking at the market that will never lead to consistent profits no matter how rigorously they’re practice or mastered.

The problem with a lot of these is that there’s no way to test them because they are all “discretionary”

From a beginners perspective it’s all so noisy it’s hard to separate the wheat from the chaff (and if I was able to I wouldn’t need the help in the first place)

I’m contemplating looking for a mentor directly that I can verify, at least that way there’s no doubt that the system has the potential to lead to profitability and I won’t be wasting my time practicing and learning.

@Nitbean...you can test discretionary setups/methods/systems. It's probably one of the most worthwhile things a beginner can do. But it takes time...lots of time. And there will be dead-ends, and then the lost feeling will come back, but then there will be successes. Small ones probably. But hopefully they accumulate.

It's only my opinion, but I would never pay for a mentor. I've never heard from anyone that has found success doing that. The success stories may exist, but pay-mentor disaster stories are very common. .

You can find lots of experienced dudes on FIO that are willing to help you through some stuff. Some may even help you find ways to test some discretionary stuff. Good luck!

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  #194 (permalink)
Nitbean
Lincoln, NE
 
Posts: 12 since Oct 2019
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Salao View Post
@Nitbean...you can test discretionary setups/methods/systems. It's probably one of the most worthwhile things a beginner can do. But it takes time...lots of time. And there will be dead-ends, and then the lost feeling will come back, but then there will be successes. Small ones probably. But hopefully they accumulate.

It's only my opinion, but I would never pay for a mentor. I've never heard from anyone that has found success doing that. The success stories may exist, but pay-mentor disaster stories are very common. .

You can find lots of experienced dudes on FIO that are willing to help you through some stuff. Some may even help you find ways to test some discretionary stuff. Good luck!

I meant *easily* test, should've specified, haha.

I agree on paying for mentors, it's not something I would ever do either. I used to mentor for some classes last year and I felt guilty accepting any form of payment - I wanted to help those as a way to pay back those that have helped me - and I'd assume trading is very similar (maybe even more so due to it's emotionally challenging nature)


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  #195 (permalink)
 
JonnyBoy's Avatar
 JonnyBoy 
Montreal, Quebec
 
Experience: Advanced
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Nitbean View Post
I meant *easily* test, should've specified, haha.

I agree on paying for mentors, it's not something I would ever do either. I used to mentor for some classes last year and I felt guilty accepting any form of payment - I wanted to help those as a way to pay back those that have helped me - and I'd assume trading is very similar (maybe even more so due to it's emotionally challenging nature)


I would recommend absorbing yourself into the book by David Aronson called Evidence Based Technical Analysis. He basically confirms what I have been thinking for years; Technical Analysis is bunk unless its structure for testing is non subjective and mathematical. For example in the first few chapters, he totally debunks the head and shoulders pattern that we hear so much about these days. He completely strips any validity that some people believe this chart "pattern" has.

His book is not for the feint of heart. You need to understand basic math and statistics, but he walks you through it step by step. I highly recommended this book.

It is very amusing to watch people discuss trading patterns that David has proven to be useless junk, backed up by his evidence based testing and analysis. If you were wondering about the "upside down bat hanging in a cave with its teeth falling out" chart pattern being profitable, you'll soon come to realise it all means nothing.

You can get to his book via this website that has much more information than I can possibly cover here.

Dave Aronson Evidence Based Technical Analysis Trading Stocks Commodities

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- Trade what you see. Invest in what you believe -
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  #196 (permalink)
 semiopen 
hillsborough nj
 
Experience: Advanced
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JonnyBoy View Post
It is very amusing to watch people discuss trading patterns that David has proven to be useless junk, backed up by his evidence based testing and analysis. If you were wondering about the "upside down bat hanging in a cave with its teeth falling out" chart pattern being profitable, you'll soon come to realise it all means nothing.

You can get to his book via this website that has much more information than I can possibly cover here.

Dave Aronson Evidence Based Technical Analysis Trading Stocks Commodities

It is also available on Kindle Unlimited for "free" I think.

I just read a few pages, but as long as the title is understood, that is pretty much the main thing.

And the technical discussions here are pretty lame.

Indicators are totally misunderstood. It would be interesting to read an "academic" history of technical analysis. It's like a would be trader/technician asked an academic to develop something for the greedy and lazy.

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  #197 (permalink)
 
JonnyBoy's Avatar
 JonnyBoy 
Montreal, Quebec
 
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semiopen View Post
It is also available on Kindle Unlimited for "free" I think.

I just read a few pages, but as long as the title is understood, that is pretty much the main thing.

And the technical discussions here are pretty lame.

Indicators are totally misunderstood. It would be interesting to read an "academic" history of technical analysis. It's like a would be trader/technician asked an academic to develop something for the greedy and lazy.

Nice. I would continue reading it. I have re-read it numerous times and always find it a great read. I found the hardcopy much easier to navigate than the electronic version.

The indicator side of things I agree with. The majority of them are a self fulfilling prophecy, in that we believe they work because we believe they work! There will never be a shortage of new traders harvesting as many indicators as they can believing they can find an edge that nobody else has found. It takes a while until you realise that you need to remove subjectivity from your analysis. If you can do this, then an edge can be found.

For example, I have built myself a trading system/method that uses zero technical analysis to generate its signals. I am not totally indicator free in that I use VWAP, which yes, it is a moving average ala technical indicator, but its history of institutional execution benchmarking against it makes it the only moving average of worth. My opinion of course, but I have numerous white papers courtesy of my ex-institutional buddy how VWAP is used and why. Very powerful stuff that if used properly can be enabled to find an edge.

I do have trendlines on my chart for guidance, but my signals are generated only from the Level I, Level II and price action using a bespoke data series. That is it. No technical indicator based decisions at all.

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  #198 (permalink)
 TheBenefactor 
Pensacola FL
 
Posts: 57 since Jun 2016


xevanchan View Post
Well damn; Interesting take from "TheBenefactor", lol. Don't think you should feel guilty, but the way I think of it is that everyone can win; everyone is trading different timeframes so maybe the person who took the opposite trade and netted you 3-6 points will cash in 2 weeks later for a gain of 25 points. Who knows? I'm not sure if its even theoretically possible for everyone to win, but it's not that black/white like poker where you are clearly taking from your opponents.

Hi,
Sorry for not posting sooner, but I trade for a living and don't have time to sit in chat rooms all day dispensing advice.
But here goes again until my next appearance:

How not to learn how to trade:

1- going into chat rooms and hope that some multi-millionaire is going to teach you all he or she knows about trading.

2- buying a book

3 - trying out trading ideas on your own.

4 - Buying some $99 per month online web course where the guru tells you how successful he or she is. ASK THEM HOW GOOD THEIR CLIENTS ARE. TALK TO THE CLIENTS. MORE THAN ONE.

BYE
GETTING READY FOR THE FED

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  #199 (permalink)
Sameer9
Colombo Sri Lanka
 
Posts: 6 since Jan 2020
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There are lots of great replies here and as a beginner trader I am also in a similar situation where consistency is a big issue. Above all I think we have to be clear of our entry strategy and the fact that it has some sort of a profitable edge. If our system fails nothing is going to help in the first place. Once we sorted out it, with small yet inconsistent wins, we maybe able to build our confidence issues and all other psychological issues that come after. Any views on this?

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  #200 (permalink)
Gauer
garopaba + santa catarina
 
Posts: 45 since Aug 2019
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It takes thousands of hours of practice to become a master of a craft. Trading is a technical skill, and like any other technical skills it requires practice/repetition. Repetition makes perfect.


For example a person who wants to become a very good dentist, he will learn the theory first, then will spend years practicing on fake teeth/mouths to master his craft before attempting to work on a human being.

Would you go to a dentist that only read a couple of books, watched a couple of courses and barely practiced?


To me it was more than 6 years of sweat, blood, tears and losses til I finally stopped losing money, but mostly because I Was my own mentor, so I had to discover all by myself. I believe it could have been less if I had had a mentor to point me in the right direction, I wasted a lot of time with classical TA trying to come up with indicator based systems (which at the time I thought it was the correct way for trading = mechanical trading). I was ready to give up when I discovered VSA (volume spread analysis), as I posted in another thread, this was a game changer for me and it was like scales came off my eyes and I could finally read a chart properly. VSA is a modern adaptation of the Wyckoff method. Richard Wyckoff was a legendary trader and considered the "father of tape reading". His trading principles work today as they worked 100 years ago or so.

After discovering this, even then it took at least three years of deep study and practice of the method to reach a specialist level and the principles become second nature. Just donīt give up because success could be just around the corner, a lot of people give up when they are almost achieving what they wanted, that is what separates successful people from the rest.

The majority of the traders lose because the majority of people is too lazy to sit down and study and practice, even if they have the right knowledge. Those people just wanna a system that will flash green for them to buy, and red to sell. System/course sellers thrive on this, because they sell the illusion that is very easy to make money without putting the effort.

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