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Trade 1: I was a little conflicted after the open. The open gapped higher. I didn't know if I should get ready to sell an anticipated failed breakout above the bull channel line (orange), OR if I should buy the pull back of the BO. I decided to go with the bulls. But I suspected the bulls only had a slight sliver of probability in their favor. I bought the close of bar 5 and put my stop below bar 4.
Now here is where my thinking gets a little shifty. At this point I'm really worried about the possibility of a failed breakout. So I decide to leave my STOP below bar 4 (2931), and I decide it's OK to take profit at 1R using an actual risk measurement from bar 5 (2933.50). This is less than 1R of my initial risk. I decide: 'if this target isn't hit and the market reverses to below bar 5, then I'll have to take profit at 1R from my original STOP placement to maintain a positive expectation.' Either way I get 1R profit.
So my question is: Is this too-cute-by-half? Or am I good to go here?
The market pulled back only a little after the gap up. But bars 8-10 were pretty resounding bear bars and I figured my chance of success at this point was about a coin toss. After that the bulls decided to wild out. I won the toss! +22t.
Trade 2: I decided to sit out and just watch after the pull back to bar 25. I was a little worried about a wedge reversal. I don't like buying/selling into the third leg of a possible wedge. After the wedge top (at bar 37) bars 38-43 were pretty sideways indicating strength. I entered long on bar 46 and put my STOP below bar 45. I set my profit target at 2R and we got there. +14t.
Some notes:
1. I'm really diggin' the RTH chart. It's less cluttered. Drawing trend lines using only RTH bars seems to make more sense in an apples-to-apples kind of way. The volume is so thin during globex that the market completely changes character after the open. But I still have the globex bars on a separate chart. I still like to look at them.
2. There wasn't a whole lot of time for trading this week due to work. BUT I finally got a little room to breathe today and I got some trades in. I did a little market replay the last few nights. Time was very limited during these sessions. I noticed that I make my biggest mistakes when my time is limited and I try to make something happen. This has been a habit for a while now. Habits have inertia. They just want to keep going. The only thing that seems to stop them is when my frustration reaches a certain high level. It is only at this point where resolve is forged from all the heat and misery of these experiences. And then I'm able to break the habit. This is why it's going to take so long to learn how to do this. Once I break a habit a new one becomes front and center and the process continues. So I'll be patient with myself and keep at it until I get it right. I mean, what the hell else am I going to do?
This is exactly where I am. Building habits is a cumulative process, and so is reasonably de-conditioning them. But when you get to the point of max frustration, by re-making the same mistakes over and over again, that's when you get inertia on your side, and that pain can be and often is a building block for a good habit. It just takes time, like you said. One day, you might wake up and just stop doing it, without any effort whatsoever, as long as you're fully committed to the idea now.
Good choice on switching to the RTH chart! I think this is what most day traders use. Obviously pay attention to the globex high and low but aside from that I think it only confuses your analysis, so best hidden.
I think with trade 1 you got lucky to be honest. As I recall there was a BTC 1R buy on b4 and then the next buy was b12. It was not until then that we knew we’d get the swing up on which you took profits. Saying that, well done for holding through the pullback and letting your stop work.
Thanks for the suggestion here! My analysis is rather confused as is, so this helps!
I pretty much Forrest Gump'd my way through this first trade . There wasn't a ton of context supporting the trade. At best I was looking at a bull flag. BUT, I did put the STOP in the right place. Haha! From there I had a coin flipper's chance!
I took 4 trades on MES: 2 winners and 2 losers. -18t.
*I checked the DOM on MES this morning and liquidity seemed good to go. I decided to practice using multiple contracts. Which is something I have only done once or twice (literally) on SIM and never live. But the micro is giving me an opportunity to expand my horizons here . I am starting with 2 contracts for now and will add more if/when performance improves.
Trade 1: The market spiked up from the open and the pullbacks were getting bought up. I bought the close of bar 8 and put my stop below bar 8. I took one contract off at 1R. I took the other off at bar 12. The goal of today was to let the second contract ride. But it looked like things were reversing so I took it off. Mistake made. What a rookie! I need a little more resolve here next time. But for now...I failed one of my primary objectives for the session. But captured +27t.
Trade 2: I sold the close of a 'reversal signal bar', bar 15. But there was no reversal to signal here. Bar 11 was the signal bar, if one was to be had. The next two bars were dojis, indicating no urgent selling, and bar 15 was inside the previous four bars. Mistake trade. -34t.
Trade 3: I sold bar 43. I had decided I was looking at a BO after a lower high was formed (bar 38). Also, bar 32 was a gap bar below the EMA20 so I concluded there was enough selling pressure for a healthy leg down. Nope. Stopped out. -38t.
Trade 4: It looked like bar 43 was enough to signal the end of a bull flag. I entered long with 1 contract on the close of bar 49 and I put my stop below bar 48. I wanted to try to scale-in with the second contract. But the market went up pretty steadily. Bar 61 seemed climax-ish so I closed out on the close. +26t.
Some additional notes:
*There was no reason to flatten trade 4. There was only one pull back during this breakout, and it lasted for only one bar!
*I missed my opportunity to scale-in higher on trade 4. Bar 59 was the first pullback of the bull BO. Looks like a good place to add higher.
*On trade 2: If I hold my second contract until I hit my profit target, I avoid entering on the wrong side of the market on trade 3. Trade 3 doesn't happen. This is a reminder of how mistakes KILL doing this...and compound!
*Trade 3: Probably should have exited on bar 45...three straight bull bars and putting price over the MA.
*Rough day. It looks like I need to stay on the simulator until I get some issues ironed out. It's hard not to be excited about the index micros though!
I took 4 trades on MES, 2 winners, 2 losers for +63t.
Trade 1: I was looking at yesterday's bar 1 spike area as support. If this support held I considered it bullish. The 615 globex bar appeared to be reversing for a leg up so I entered long with 1 contract(2907.5). I set my profit target at 2R but was stopped out rather quickly. -15t.
Trade 2: Trade 1 was stopped out by a pretty good looking signal bar. I entered long with 1 contract on the close (625 globex) and set my profit target at 2R. And we got there. +27t.
Trade 3: I was away from the screen because of work until ~900 PDT. MES was pretty short at this time and bulls were having a difficult time making money for the most part. The market had found support near yesterday's ONL, near a measured move, and it looked like the bears had started profit taking at bar 34 creating a bear flag. I sold the close, 2 contracts, of bar 37. I was anticipating another test of yesterday's ONL with potential to sell off to 2873.50 which was the top of the April 1 spike on the daily chart. After April 1 the market channeled higher in two-sided trade. In my opinion a break lower from here would be bearish. If support is held, a trading range is possible or bull trend resumption. Here is the daily chart I was considering:
I took 1 contract off at 1R. I left the other contract on past 2R but then my emotions got the best of me and I took profits at bar 45. I just got too excited. It's been FOREVER since I've capture this many ticks. +58t.
Trade 4: The market seemed to be holding my April 1 support and I went long with 1 contract at bar 49. I quickly realized that the previous selloff was too strong for my wimpy reversal and flattened my mistake trade. -7t.
Some notes:
*The mistakes from yesterday were avoided. But I did manage to whip up a batch of new ones.
*I became too excited on trade 3. I have managed my emotions pretty well recently. I have been managing the emotions associated with taking losses well, but I haven't had much experience with elation. . I managed to hold a trade past 2R which represents some progress. I still took the second contract off earlier than I had planned without a compelling reason to close it out. BUT this is progress. SO I'm OK with it for now even though there is room for improvement. It was nice to experience elation but now I need to learn to deal with it. Progress is good!
*I have finished reading two of Al Brooks' 3 books: Trends, and Trading Ranges. They were fantastic! He's like a modern Schabacker. His books were densely packed and I blazed through them. There is a CRAZY amount of information to unpack though. And there is a third book I still need to get to!! I've been referencing his books while crafting journal entries to try to internalize all that information. Which has helped. Lately I've been focusing on spike and channel patterns as they seem to occur fairly often. I have also been focusing on his ideas regarding breakouts. There is just so much though. But today was my best day trading since I have embraced BPA style trading!
Brooks is just amazingly hard to understand (for me.) My hat's off to you if you have been able to get through the books and have profited from them. I do see very good trading being done here on FIO by Brooks traders, so the value is definitely there.
I just never have been able to get my head around it. But I'm glad you have.
Many things work, and the individual trader is as much a part of the equation as the method being applied, so some things work well for one person and not for another. We see this all the time. Good that you are putting this to work and finding it valuable. (Me, I just found myself yelling in frustration as he repeated something the four hundredth time... but that's just me. )
Thanks BW! Your post reminds me of the conversation on the 'fibonacci queen' thread. My take away from that discussion was that some lines work for some people, but not others. Just like some methodologies work for some but not others. In my case, some methodology works sometimes but not others! . I guess that goes back to what you were saying about the individual trader being a large part of the equation. Cheers!
. There wasn't a ton of 
. I am starting with 2 contracts for now and will add more if/when performance improves. 
