spetscom 

Hello all, I am new to this forum. I have been reading on here a lot and man this seems to be the first forum on the entire internet to not be filled with toxicity or jerks! I am making this post because I would like some advice, or perhaps some direction from some more experienced futures traders (and I feel like I won't get ripped apart on here). I am experienced in trading stocks, but got into futures (specifically the ES) at around the start of 2018. I really love not getting up and flying to my computer in the morning, frantically checking all of my scanners to try and find a stock that is moving. It is so nice waking up to futures. I get up, look at multiple time frames on the ES, do some analysis, and then wait . I chose the ES because I figured it would be wise to just focus on one futures contract to begin, and the ES is very liquid. With that said, it is a beast to trade. I am kind of stuck right now in my trading. I have the psychology of trading down. There is always room for improvement obviously, but I have read a lot of trading psychology books, worked with a psychologist, learned from my mistakes, etc. I have my psychology down pretty well. I can place trades with ease, I have a planned stop before I even enter the trade, I don't get euphoria if I win, and I don't have a breakdown if I lose (I am not using sim, I am using my real money). My problem is having a strategy! It seems like so many traders have the opposite problem. I personally know a guy who had a working strategy for trading stocks, but quit trading altogether because of his fear of losing money. I have worked tirelessly trying to find a strategy for trading the ES, and I can't find much! I have worked tirelessly in NinjaTrader, programming strategies and backtesting them, and some have been profitable, but not profitable enough that I would deploy my capital upon it. I am not one to use many indicators, but I am willing to try anything. I have tried strategies with different moving averages, bollingers, ADX, and every other indicator under the sun, even those weird ones that no ones heard of! But at the end of the day, I feel like indicators and the like are subjective. I feel like by watching the ES day-in and day-out, I as a human (and I'm sure basically every trader) can get an underlying feeling of how the ES is changing in an almost intuitive/subconscious sort of sense. Have you ever had days where your gut just kind of knows where the ES is heading, and then it actually goes there? Where the ES is just flowing, and you are flowing with it. I have had some of those days. I assume by staring at the same instrument for months, watching the tape, just how it moves, you possibly pick up on some of the nuances subconsciously? Either way, I have considered going from an intuitive style of approach towards the ES, but I just have such a hard time with that because it is not backed up by any statistical evidence, which makes it difficult to place the trade (the worst part is, it usually ends up being a winner!) I guess I am just kind of stuck right now, and it really kills me because I will never throw in the towel on trading. So I will just sit at my computer for 16 hours a day, programming and backtesting, watching the markets, etc. It's probably unhealthy. Trading is what I am passionate about, this is not just something that I came to believing I could "get rich quick", or looking for a guru to follow. I am completely consumed with trading. I got into it when I was 15 (18 now) and I spend all of my time trying to improve. I even enrolled in homeschooling during my last two high school years, just so I could watch the markets in the morning. I always have my charts running, just to glance at them when I walk by. I only say all of this because whenever I tell people I'm a trader, and tell them my age, they tend to discredit me and laugh at me, which really annoys me considering how hard I work at it. I have no friends that are traders over here in Michigan, and this seemed like the friendliest forum to ask for guidance on. Thanks everyone, Cade

Hi there,
I went through the same thing so let me try and set you on the right path. I'll number my points to give you a clear view of what I'm talking about.
1) Forget programming. Learn to understand the market and what drives it (volume etc). Regarding the programming, the best minds have been employed by Goldman Sachs etc in order to try to profit in the same way. They didn't manage it. The only way they could make a profit was to game the market by jumping the order queue and seeing/executing orders before everyone else. I have talked to lots of traders and the amount who are programmers who want to try to automise things is astounding. One of them had traded on the floor on the Chicago futures pit and lost money. He was a programmer by trade. He couldn't do it. Of course you might buck the trend but the numbers are against you.

2)Learn how volume interacts with price. I don't mean learn to read a price ladder/DOM. I have charts that have volume and cumulative delta showing. You can glean a huge amount of info from how price reacts to volume and at a certain prices/SR points. The S/R points are in point 3.

3) What SR should you use? Mark out the open price and the closing price. These are massively important as a lot of money comes into/eaves the market at these points. You will be amazed how often price reacts to these areas. Mark out 15 min swing highs and lows. See how price reacts when it reaches these areas.

4) Understand what a liquidity sweep is. These are mistakenly called stop hunts. Whilst this is not necessarily incorrect, if you understand why it is a liquidity sweep then it helps you to understand what the market does. I am not affiliated in any way-look up a channel called Market traders Daily and see his explanation of stop hunts. Hopefully it will open a few mental doors

5) I am in London UK and trade the ES in the UK morning as well as the US session. I will post an example to show you what I mean in point 2.
In the chart provided, price moves above the swing high that was made this morning. Refer to point 4) liquidity sweeps.
Look at the price reaction to this area. Look at the volume on both the normal volume and the delta. What do you think you should do?

Keab 

Hi there, I went through the same thing so let me try and set you on the right path. I'll number my points to give you a clear view of what I'm talking about. 1) Forget programming. Learn to understand the market and what drives it (volume etc). Regarding the programming, the best minds have been employed by Goldman Sachs etc in order to try to profit in the same way. They didn't manage it. The only way they could make a profit was to game the market by jumping the order queue and seeing/executing orders before everyone else. I have talked to lots of traders and the amount who are programmers who want to try to automise things is astounding. One of them had traded on the floor on the Chicago futures pit and lost money. He was a programmer by trade. He couldn't do it. Of course you might buck the trend but the numbers are against you. 2)Learn how volume interacts with price. I don't mean learn to read a price ladder/DOM. I have charts that have volume and cumulative delta showing. You can glean a huge amount of info from how price reacts to volume and at a certain prices/SR points. The S/R points are in point 3. 3) What SR should you use? Mark out the open price and the closing price. These are massively important as a lot of money comes into/eaves the market at these points. You will be amazed how often price reacts to these areas. Mark out 15 min swing highs and lows. See how price reacts when it reaches these areas. 4) Understand what a liquidity sweep is. These are mistakenly called stop hunts. Whilst this is not necessarily incorrect, if you understand why it is a liquidity sweep then it helps you to understand what the market does. I am not affiliated in any way-look up a channel called Market traders Daily and see his explanation of stop hunts. Hopefully it will open a few mental doors 5) I am in London UK and trade the ES in the UK morning as well as the US session. I will post an example to show you what I mean in point 2. In the chart provided, price moves above the swing high that was made this morning. Refer to point 4) liquidity sweeps. Look at the price reaction to this area. Look at the volume on both the normal volume and the delta. What do you think you should do?

Thank you for the detailed reply. I do not know what I would do with that chart, simply by looking at that price action, I would say go long on a pullback. But as far as delta goes, I admit I have no understanding of it, or volume profiling. I have tried to understand volume profiling, but I can’t grasp it. I generally use simple price action + volume bars + T&S tape. I’m open to your ideas you talk about though if you could elaborate more.

I feel your pain man. If it's a passion, you'll find a way. You have to put in the work like you are and be patient.

Patience is the #1 quality that makes a great trader. I don't have any friends in my city that are traders and I don't even talk about trading. It's word of mouth. But it's taken me 10 years. I used to barely sleep...for years.

I'd have my laptop right next to my bed and wake up in the middle of the night, several times, every single trading night. and you know what...that didn't help. watch the markets during normal business hours. program during or after but don't lose sleep over it. I trade almost entirely off of support/resistance and volume profile.

So many people think you can't do it and they credit that to algos. You can't win as a normal trader because the algos are too smart. well it's bullshit. Cut your losers, play great defense. Don't double down on days. What I mean by that is I used to make say 50 ticks then feel I had 50 free ticks to trade and worst case I walk out breakeven. that's dumb.

Always walk away with profit. don't risk more just because you made more. Great defense and patience. Knowing your trading expectancy is key. You need to know that you have an edge and you need to know that expectancy so you know when you can expect to exit the trade if you're unsure.

If the market is moving real well and the volume patterns coming in are in my favor, I let it ride. But you have to take profits in order to build you account. #rant #yougotit #patience

Hey Cade, when you're looking for strategies, are you focused on the really short-term intraday stuff? It's super hard for me to find anything that works on a short term basis. But when I dial it out to longer-term for the ES, then there are more opportunities that seem to stand out.

Hey everyone, I see this thread is still getting replies so I figure I should update everyone. At this point, I have found two markets that I love to trade. CL & NQ. Me and my buddy who’s very good with statistics and mathematics are developing an algorithm on the side for fun. It’s actually profitable, but needs a ton of work.

So far, things are going well for my discretionary trading. My risk:reward is about 1:3 or better. I tend to play intraday momentum. I generally stay in positions for 10-30 minutes. I have concrete risk management, but I do not have concrete entry parameters. Every moment in the market is unique, so I use my own judgement to decide whether or not I enter. I have turned a 2k account into 3.5k using this method and have had very few losers, and most were small losers on top of that.

I notice a lot of futures traders use Volume profiling, and I feel like there is something there that may be significant, I just don’t quite understand its use. I overthink a lot already, and when I have even 1 moving average on my screen I can begin to overthink and not take a position all together. That’s why I only use price action and volume + tape.

It’s kind of weird how well I perform using intuition. That sounds arrogant, but I don’t mean it in that way. After tracking all my trades, I tend to be right quite frequently, enough to where I am quite profitable. It is weird for me because everyone talks about how oh Trading needs to be so methodical and rigid, which it does in terms of risk management, but as far as entry parameters, setups, etc. it just doesn’t work for me. I perform much better by not adhering to that idea.

However, I am interested in volume profiling, as well as the delta thing. I’m always open to learning new things about trading that might improve it.


Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

@ spetscom, glad to hear you are still at it and seeing good results. Intuition is something that normally takes most people a long time to develop in the markets, but if yours is serving you well then you've got a leg up.

VP is definitely worth looking into, although I've noticed it responds differently depending on the market you are trading; if you ever spring for elite membership, you'd probably do well to check out the Spoos thread which was focused on ES, lots of information and methodologies there.

Cumulative delta is interesting, I'm taking it for a spin myself and it has proven useful in certain situations; I use it more for confirmation as opposed to using it as a signal. Once you learn to interpret various forms of volume, they become very powerful tools indeed.

Are you really in Niles? Old stomping grounds... my folks live in between Edwardsburg and Union... we used to raise some hell over there and then flee into the country lol. Heading up there after Xmas for some much deserved R&R time.


Take care,
Shane

Rrrracer 

@ spetscom, glad to hear you are still at it and seeing good results. Intuition is something that normally takes most people a long time to develop in the markets, but if yours is serving you well then you've got a leg up. VP is definitely worth looking into, although I've noticed it responds differently depending on the market you are trading; if you ever spring for elite membership, you'd probably do well to check out the Spoos thread which was focused on ES, lots of information and methodologies there. Cumulative delta is interesting, I'm taking it for a spin myself and it has proven useful in certain situations; I use it more for confirmation as opposed to using it as a signal. Once you learn to interpret various forms of volume, they become very powerful tools indeed. Are you really in Niles? Old stomping grounds... my folks live in between Edwardsburg and Union... we used to raise some hell over there and then flee into the country lol. Heading up there after Xmas for some much deserved R&R time. Take care, Shane

Yeah I actually am in Niles. I used to go to church in Edwardsburg. Went to school in Berrien Springs. I never thought I would talk to anyone on here that even knew Niles existed. I will look into cumulative delta and see what that's all about.

spetscom 

It’s kind of weird how well I perform using intuition. That sounds arrogant, but I don’t mean it in that way. After tracking all my trades, I tend to be right quite frequently, enough to where I am quite profitable.[/url]

Long may your success continue. Consider keeping your size small for the time being. Once you have a couple hundred + trades under your belt. The last thing you want is to ramp up your size, and find out the recent success is just a random out performing of your long run expectancy.

More than one trader laments their early 'success', only to fall back (and below) their mean with much bigger size.

spetscom 

Yeah I actually am in Niles. I used to go to church in Edwardsburg. Went to school in Berrien Springs. I never thought I would talk to anyone on here that even knew Niles existed. I will look into cumulative delta and see what that's all about.

There actually wasn't too much trouble to get into in Niles, we used it as an escape route from South Bend Small world. Be glad to help out any way I can, hit me up if need be.

spetscom 

Hey everyone, I see this thread is still getting replies so I figure I should update everyone. At this point, I have found two markets that I love to trade. CL & NQ. Me and my buddy who’s very good with statistics and mathematics are developing an algorithm on the side for fun. It’s actually profitable, but needs a ton of work. So far, things are going well for my discretionary trading. My risk:reward is about 1:3 or better. I tend to play intraday momentum. I generally stay in positions for 10-30 minutes. I have concrete risk management, but I do not have concrete entry parameters. Every moment in the market is unique, so I use my own judgement to decide whether or not I enter. I have turned a 2k account into 3.5k using this method and have had very few losers, and most were small losers on top of that. I notice a lot of futures traders use Volume profiling, and I feel like there is something there that may be significant, I just don’t quite understand its use. I overthink a lot already, and when I have even 1 moving average on my screen I can begin to overthink and not take a position all together. That’s why I only use price action and volume + tape. It’s kind of weird how well I perform using intuition. That sounds arrogant, but I don’t mean it in that way. After tracking all my trades, I tend to be right quite frequently, enough to where I am quite profitable. It is weird for me because everyone talks about how oh Trading needs to be so methodical and rigid, which it does in terms of risk management, but as far as entry parameters, setups, etc. it just doesn’t work for me. I perform much better by not adhering to that idea. However, I am interested in volume profiling, as well as the delta thing. I’m always open to learning new things about trading that might improve it. Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Good results over time dont lie.Learning is very important as well.Just be careful,dont get sidetracked,and stop doing what is working
Bob