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Fundamental

  #1 (permalink)
 harryguy 
st. louis missouri
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: tradestation
Trading: futures
Posts: 60 since Jun 2014
Thanks Given: 31
Thanks Received: 25

I have been a technician my entire trading career but am curious about fundamental analysis. I have some funds in a managed account that does well. The trader sends out daily commentary that I religiously read. He gives no indication of his trading intentions in this commentary, but mentions all of the fundamental factors he sees as relevant at the moment. I would like to explore fundamentals but really don't know where to start. I just bought Jack Schwagers book on the subject but I'm finding that there isn't much to it. I'd like to learn more but don't know where to start. Any advice?

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  #3 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
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harryguy View Post
I have been a technician my entire trading career but am curious about fundamental analysis. I have some funds in a managed account that does well. The trader sends out daily commentary that I religiously read. He gives no indication of his trading intentions in this commentary, but mentions all of the fundamental factors he sees as relevant at the moment. I would like to explore fundamentals but really don't know where to start. I just bought Jack Schwagers book on the subject but I'm finding that there isn't much to it. I'd like to learn more but don't know where to start. Any advice?

Are you talking about stocks or currencies or gold or grains or crude oil or coffee or cattle or ... ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #4 (permalink)
 harryguy 
st. louis missouri
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: tradestation
Trading: futures
Posts: 60 since Jun 2014
Thanks Given: 31
Thanks Received: 25


myrrdin View Post
Are you talking about stocks or currencies or gold or grains or crude oil or coffee or cattle or ... ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

Sorry, I assumed that the section I posted in would indicate commodities futures. I deal in mainly in the ag sector (corn, soybeans, wheat, and cattle). I do most of my personal speculating in crude oil, cotton, cocoa, sugar, and stock/currency index's.

The daily commentary I read doesn't give any hint on how analysis is done but brings all sorts of factors to my attention. Stuff like balance sheets, weather, world policies, etc. Then there are the things like the goldman roll that can influence the market short term. I never knew about that until I started reading his morning email. Being a technician I have conscientiously avoided media that mentions these things because they also include so much distracting noise. The commentary I have been reading sticks to facts that can be quantified and I like that. There is lots of stuff I just don't know how to find, or even know that it exists. I have searched for books on the subject but haven't found many. For every book I've found on fundamental analysis of commodity markets I have read at least 20 on technical analysis. There are so many TA books/gurus out there there must be 10,000 TA books on amazon. I'd just like to get a legitimate view from the other side of the fence. Where do I start?

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  #5 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,686
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harryguy View Post
Sorry, I assumed that the section I posted in would indicate commodities futures. I deal in mainly in the ag sector (corn, soybeans, wheat, and cattle). I do most of my personal speculating in crude oil, cotton, cocoa, sugar, and stock/currency index's.

The daily commentary I read doesn't give any hint on how analysis is done but brings all sorts of factors to my attention. Stuff like balance sheets, weather, world policies, etc. Then there are the things like the goldman roll that can influence the market short term. I never knew about that until I started reading his morning email. Being a technician I have conscientiously avoided media that mentions these things because they also include so much distracting noise. The commentary I have been reading sticks to facts that can be quantified and I like that. There is lots of stuff I just don't know how to find, or even know that it exists. I have searched for books on the subject but haven't found many. For every book I've found on fundamental analysis of commodity markets I have read at least 20 on technical analysis. There are so many TA books/gurus out there there must be 10,000 TA books on amazon. I'd just like to get a legitimate view from the other side of the fence. Where do I start?

The problem is that there is no "closed system" in fundamentals that says, if fundamental data is so or so the price of the commodity will move upwards or downwards. There is a lot of information on Supply & Demand, Weather, COT data etc, but I do not know of any formula combining these fundamentals and giving an advice for your next trade.

In Technical Analysis there are many such formulas, and, thus, you can sell many books.

I trade commodities for many years as a speculator. I still read daily commentaries, eg. Hightower Report. And I read a lot of other reports on fundamentals. After years of reading these reports I have now quite a good understanding of the fundamentals.

But I still do not know of any good book.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #6 (permalink)
 harryguy 
st. louis missouri
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: tradestation
Trading: futures
Posts: 60 since Jun 2014
Thanks Given: 31
Thanks Received: 25

There is a lot of information on Supply & Demand, Weather, COT data etc, but I do not know of any formula combining these fundamentals and giving an advice for your next trade.

I understand that. I'm looking learn what those sources of information are and books that give opinions on which are important. I'm not looking for the mathematical formulas specifically.

In Technical Analysis there are many such formulas, and, thus, you can sell many books.

I was just trying to illustrate that books on fundamental analysis of the futures markets are few and far between. At the same time most of the successful large traders I read about claim they only use TA for entering and exiting a market and use Fundamentals for deciding what direction the market should move. These guys don't try to sell books, they are successful traders that are very consistent in their returns. I want to know more.

I trade commodities for many years as a speculator. I still read daily commentaries, eg. Hightower Report. And I read a lot of other reports on fundamentals. After years of reading these reports I have now quite a good understanding of the fundamentals.

I have read these as well. They keep on confirming that I am better off with TA than following their advice. I don't trust the opinion of commentaries that charge for vague recommendations or ones that are free. The one I mentioned that I have been impressed with isn't available to the public. It is free to people who have money in his fund. It doesn't offer any advice at all. It just points out things he is paying attention to at the moment. He is very careful to not provide any trading advice. His returns are very good and very consistent. While I consider myself a successful trader because I have made money overall, I have to admit that I have more losing trades than winners and my returns are very erratic. The fund manager I mention makes me want to learn more about the process but don't know where to start.

But I still do not know of any good book.

Best regards, Myrrdin


Thanks for you reply, but I can't help get the feeling it was written to discourage me from exploring Fundamental analysis.

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  #7 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,686
Thanks Received: 2,651


harryguy View Post

Thanks for you reply, but I can't help get the feeling it was written to discourage me from exploring Fundamental analysis.

I definitely do not want to discourage you from exploring fundamental analysis. I go this way for many years, and for me it is a successful way. But, according to my experience, it is a long, but rewarding way.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #8 (permalink)
 harryguy 
st. louis missouri
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: tradestation
Trading: futures
Posts: 60 since Jun 2014
Thanks Given: 31
Thanks Received: 25


myrrdin View Post
I definitely do not want to discourage you from exploring fundamental analysis. I go this way for many years, and for me it is a successful way. But, according to my experience, it is a long, but rewarding way.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Are you referring to Technical or Fundamental?

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  #9 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,686
Thanks Received: 2,651


harryguy View Post
Are you referring to Technical or Fundamental?

I am referring to Fundamental Analysis, which is the main base of my trading for many years.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #10 (permalink)
 harryguy 
st. louis missouri
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: tradestation
Trading: futures
Posts: 60 since Jun 2014
Thanks Given: 31
Thanks Received: 25



myrrdin View Post
I am referring to Fundamental Analysis, which is the main base of my trading for many years.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Well hey........ tell me how to get started!

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Last Updated on August 13, 2018


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