Linds 

Just a question If the edge is mathematically there Why is it there? It is very helpful to not only know it exists but to know why it does .....this can help the confidence a lot.

As i have recognized it so far, the market place is random price movement, until i as an observer, recognize a pattern.
The beauty is in the eye of beholder moment.
Then i consequently track the same price behavior over the period of time. The same price pattern.
And i test it and i test it again and again till it becomes my edge.

LukePoga 

how is your comfort level? imagine that you were trading your setup at 50c at a time. imagine you are trading 1 lot at a time with $1,000,000,000 billion in your account. imagine you are at a casino betting your home on a coin flip. you want to sit somewhere in the middle where your risk of ruin is comfortable. traders sometimes think its their emotions that are the problem, when really you should listen to your emotions. instincts are right. if you have fear you are not trading sustainably.

Thats the struggle, comfort level analyzing it, is very good.
The comfort level executing it is something completely different.
In my mind i live and i die by each individual trade. as oppose to a series of trades.

Day 7 i had profits, i ended up giving it all away + some more.
Account was down to 11.7K
I was mad at myself for missing a lot of signals and ended up revenge trading my way from 12.3 down to 11,7

Days 8 and 9 i reconvened. Small baby steps.
I planned my trades and i followed the plan.
Still with fear in the bones. But i made it through.
I only recorded the day 9 trades on GC.
8 attempts at a long, the last one worked nicely to erase the prior 7 failed ones.
The strength is in the numbers, as Mark Douglas says in the series of trades. Not an individual trade.

All change is a function of desire. And i do have desire and tremendous love and respect about trading!

For today i was observing the YM, Monday possible bearish day.
The set up showed up on a weekly chart.

1st trade, 1 contract. scratch.

2nd trade, two contracts
Entry short 25481
1st emotional target was +3
Entry is protected
edit: Didn't trail it properly, stopped out +3

3rd trade, two contracts
Entry short 25475
1st emotional target filled @ +3
2nd contract out @ +23

I made up my mind now with absolute sincerity to enjoy the process of trading

Linds 

Just a question If the edge is mathematically there Why is it there? It is very helpful to not only know it exists but to know why it does .....this can help the confidence a lot.

What do you mean 'Why is it there?'
Are you saying that we can disguise and package bias in the form of objective data?

Grantx 

What do you mean 'Why is it there?' Are you saying that we can disguise and package bias in the form of objective data?

No - not really sure what that means actually - I am saying that a trader is more likely to believe in their edge if there is a logical market based rationale for it to exist.

In this case he seems to be define his edge around price movement at levels that he thinks are significant to the market. Why are they significant? What can we assume happens in terms of order flow/support/resistance when price approaches these levels - is there a rationale for the entry and the trade management based on these things..or is it simply observed movements and attemtps to systematize trading the movements without a market rationale?

Linds 

No - not really sure what that means actually - I am saying that a trader is more likely to believe in their edge if there is a logical market based rationale for it to exist. In this case he seems to be define his edge around price movement at levels that he thinks are significant to the market. Why are they significant? What can we assume happens in terms of order flow/support/resistance when price approaches these levels - is there a rationale for the entry and the trade management based on these things..or is it simply observed movements and attemtps to systematize trading the movements without a market rationale?

You are talking about subjective interpretation which I dont think relates to harmonic patterns.
Pattern traders put more emphasis on trading off of certain configurations without asking why the thing exists. Its easier to compile win/loss/expectancy trading stats with this kind of data because there is not much data. Its a bat, butterfly, crab or whatever. No reasons it just is.

When you introduce objective interpretation it complicates trading statistics immensely. How do you quantify all the possibilities that your mind is processing? Its impossible (Im happy to be proven wrong here). And I agree with you there is always a why and a where and a how to be asked.

Thats the analysis part of trading which requires effort, and who really wants to put effort into something when you can take a shortcut and trade patterns instead. Thats why this game is so mental and why it is imperative for every trader to understand the underlying reasons why we think the way we do . Heuristic shortcuts are very bad mental habits for traders. This is an interesting read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decision-making

Sun Tzu:
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

Grantx 

You are talking about subjective interpretation which I dont think relates to harmonic patterns. Pattern traders put more emphasis on trading off of certain configurations without asking why the thing exists. Its easier to compile win/loss/expectancy trading stats with this kind of data because there is not much data. Its a bat, butterfly, crab or whatever. No reasons it just is. When you introduce objective interpretation it complicates trading statistics immensely. How do you quantify all the possibilities that your mind is processing? Its impossible (Im happy to be proven wrong here). And I agree with you there is always a why and a where and a how to be asked. Thats the analysis part of trading which requires effort, and who really wants to put effort into something when you can take a shortcut and trade patterns instead. Thats why this game is so mental and why it is imperative for every trader to understand the underlying reasons why we think the way we do . Heuristic shortcuts are very bad mental habits for traders. This is an interesting read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decision-making Sun Tzu: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

Ive been reading along quietly for the past few weeks.My house is torn apart ,doing a renovation.My trading computer isnt even plugged in.Imagine, im missing this.Its been a very "mindful" time.I see the contribution on MLMs thread.I wanted toss this out there, to some of you who have been active posters.We are talking about edge, and what gives a trader a legitamate chance to make a days pay.I have tried every timeframe/chart /indicator out there i feel.I would often think,if i can just get good entries, then i would have a chance to make a little$,and exit if price action wasnt panning out.This led me to quick time frames.I used the 1 min, i tried MLMs renko,and a few others.What i noticed was i was getting caught up in the noise, and, death by a thousand cuts.I love MLMs journal in the beginning.Not because he was very successful(although that was definately exciting!)but because he had a very specific execution style .He had a written plan.All he had to do was execute.You see he takes his stops, and just proceeds to the next trade...sometimes reversing, which is the ultimate mark of someone who has confidence in his method.I feel that if all traders wrote their playbook down, and executed their #1 play, patiently, that might help.Especially in the beginning.There will always be traders who can read price action well.I envy them.For the sake of preserving ones confidence, and sanity, i absolutely believe you should identify 1 trade that you are happy with, and stick with that.Atleast in the beginning.Boring? yes...and rightfully so......One last thing MLM used discretion even at the beginning of his journal.That is a big factor.We all know the difficulties of trading too much, and getting sliced and diced.IMO, seeing other traders make $ is inspiring.It tells me it can be done.Just look a t Grutpierres journal.Hes in the trenches every day, fighting it out.Grantx,Racer, Explorer, scalping trader,Flying monkey and many others are in thefight sticking their chin out and taking their lumps.Trade the plan inspired me (Grantx as well) to look at the currency spreads, and get back to live after many years of sim.So, thank you everyone who is posting ,cant wait to get back in!
Bobby

Linds 

No - not really sure what that means actually - I am saying that a trader is more likely to believe in their edge if there is a logical market based rationale for it to exist. In this case he seems to be define his edge around price movement at levels that he thinks are significant to the market. Why are they significant? What can we assume happens in terms of order flow/support/resistance when price approaches these levels - is there a rationale for the entry and the trade management based on these things..or is it simply observed movements and attemtps to systematize trading the movements without a market rationale?

Patterns are patterns Linds. And are noticeable on most price chart.
A large segment of traders do use them profitably. Execution is the key!

I was observing the YM today again.
Bears in control today also. Attempted 8 times at the set up. 8th time the charm.
Day 11 covering the idiocy of day 10!

Yesterday day 10, toward the end of trading day i became the village idiot again.
I did not trade my set up. Stupid is as stupid does.
The day was green but after 65 trades total, it was red and my broker was a happier chump.
I must follow my rules. The more i follow my rules the more i will trust myself!!