Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Regarding demand in the PMs, we came to the conclusion there are different main areas of interest:
1. ETF flows
2. Physical demand, India, China, Central banks
3. Futures
Basically the aggregate of the above defines the market. Sometimes one area shows high demand, then the other.
Right now investment demand in western world = ETF seems to be low, however China and India imports are very high.
The situation overall looks very bullish now.
EUR shows very bullish behavior
Commercials in GC and EUR bullish like the haven't been in 1.5 years.
This suggest the bottom is in a we will see further strength in the precious metal market.
In addition concerning the outflows from ETFs from Nov 20 to March 21 eventually as well in April (to be confirmed) except Jan:
'Kitco quotes Juan Carlos Artigas, director of investment research at the WGC, stating that, while momentum in the gold market has definitely slowed compared to last year, strategist investors continue to see long-term value in the yellow metal and are providing critical support. Artigas also noted that investors also need to view the outflows in a broader context as last year saw historic ETF demand. “It is natural for the gold market to see some outflows as investors continue to take profits from last year’s record rally,” he said. “This is a natural rebalancing of the gold market.”
So ETF gold outflow in April is confirmed https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/global-gold-backed-etf-holdings-and-flows
but...see below and in addition from a TA perspective gold is breaking out (yesterday data not even taking account today's move), bitcoin and other cryptoassets are behaving well, so I'm quite confident...same for Silver and Platinum and Copper....
For the rest Platinum is disappointing recently and gold and silver are on a rolling coast basis but still trending favorably. I know why I focus all my attention on these PM this year...
1- By the way did you all hear about Basel III (with Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) requirement that will make holding unallocated gold problematic and would be bullish for allocated gold) coming into force for European banks on 28 June 2021 and at the end of the year for the other banks (unless there is a last-minutes postponement)?
According to the Basel III framework, gold will become a zero-risk asset. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/end-paper-gold-silver-markets
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,384
Thanks Received: 10,206
I know the CME Aluminum contract doesn't trade (yes there is a CME Aluminum contract and it traded 39 lots yesterday and has an open interest of 177 lots!) but none the less I found this Reuters story regarding the shift in Aluminum fundamentals as China becomes an net importer rather than exporter to be interesting.
Concerning NSFR there is a good explanation p76 - 78 of the extended version of ingoldwetrust 2021 report.
I therefore made a mistake with the date of implementation:
Concerning aluminium, difficult to follow the price evolution and to trade except indirectly I have in mind miners such as Rio Tinto with bauxite production exposal and others and they are included in ETF EU Stoxx 600 Basic Resources (in my portfolio).
