steptank 

Out of my short, expect some support coming soon because the basis is getting wider. Daily hogs and pork was 4.47 higher yesterday but another limit down day? Hopefully another opportunity will emerge to re-enter a short position in the near future. The hog picture is still looks very bearish, but I was reading about the Iowa pasture conditions and it sounds like they are in terrible condition. Thereby increasing the price of beef and supplementary food (hay & corn). Perhaps this will increase demand for a cheaper meat like pork? And, will the increased corn prices lead to rancher's bringing their hogs to market sooner, leading to less supply? A lot of variables to consider in ag, steptank

In addition to exiting my LHQ short (a bit too early), I exited 1/3 of my LHG22-LHV21 spreads.

Tomorrow the Hogs & Pigs report will be published, and this report is always good for a surprise.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Hogs and Pigs day! Hope everyone got a chance to look at it.

Looks like a drop in supply y/y in just about every department.

What are your thoughts?
steptank

steptank 

Hogs and Pigs day! Hope everyone got a chance to look at it. Looks like a drop in supply y/y in just about every department. What are your thoughts? steptank

I agree, but to me the report still looks almost neutral. I would be surprised if there were significant price changes tomorrow. I do not expect a limit move.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I saw this this morning, patted myself on the back for flattening my short position when I did.

This combined with such a neutral Hogs and Pigs report should slow down that free fall we were experiencing.

Eyes peeled for a new short entry,
steptank

steptank 

I saw this this morning, patted myself on the back for flattening my short position when I did. This combined with such a neutral Hogs and Pigs report should slow down that free fall we were experiencing. Eyes peeled for a new short entry, steptank

I had taken profit on my LHG22-LHV21 before the Hogs and Pigs report, as these reports can
include surprises.

Today I re-entered with a small position.

Best regards, Myrrdin

steptank 

I saw this this morning, patted myself on the back for flattening my short position when I did. This combined with such a neutral Hogs and Pigs report should slow down that free fall we were experiencing. Eyes peeled for a new short entry, steptank

Hmm - exports to China in 2020 was only 14% of US pork consumption. I think it's more correlation with grains driving the rally - however, don't think this is warranted. We seem to be on track for ok production in the states.. mostly trading on weather changes though

myrrdin 

I had taken profit on my LHG22-LHV21 before the Hogs and Pigs report, as these reports can include surprises. Today I re-entered with a small position. Best regards, Myrrdin

I added some LHG22-LHV21 and some LHJ22-LHZ21 as seasonal trades in recent days, and now hold full positions for both spreads.

According to seasonal charts and according to fundamental data, both spreads should see higher values before they expire.

Major Risks: I assume that exports to China will remain low. And, of course, I assume that there are no major diseases in other major producing countries.

Best regards, Myrrdin

myrrdin 

I added some LHG22-LHV21 and some LHJ22-LHZ21 as seasonal trades in recent days, and now hold full positions for both spreads. According to seasonal charts and according to fundamental data, both spreads should see higher values before they expire. Major Risks: I assume that exports to China will remain low. And, of course, I assume that there are no major diseases in other major producing countries. Best regards, Myrrdin

Took nice profit on these trades, and might enter the LHJ22-LHZ21 again at a higher level.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Been a while fellas! Anything new for you?

Hiraphor 

Been a while fellas! Anything new for you?

Re-entered the LHJ22-LHZ21, as intended.

I intend to add some LHM-LHG around 11.

Additionally, I hold two outright long positions: LHG and LCZ.

Best regard, Myrrdin