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trade # 1 never triggered. sell stop would be 1 tick below inside bar. price never got there.
trade # 2 is a loser
trade # 3 would not meet my criteria (bearish inside bar after down bar in a up move) hope that makes sense.
trade # 4 is a loser
plus there were a couple winning inside bars like at 10:20 and 11:40. I know this is just for inside bars, but there were also a few winning outside and reversal bar trades.
Your point is well taken........that is why I do NOT use this set up on the ES or on a 5 minute chart. Check these out on CL on a 15 minute chart and see if the result is different.
Hypothetically these bar patterns should work on any market.....but.........CL is a "different" animal. The volitility that CL has often works to a traders advantage in achieving at least a minimal profit target where a less volitile market might not.
Your right in terms of the cl being a different animal, reason is i've seen that when the cl takes a trend, it takes off and never looks back. Reason i don't trade it is because i sincerely think that for every trade, you should be willing to risk about $400 min if your not scalping( at least with the way i trade) per contract, specially on a 15 min time frame, which equates to $20k per contract(2%) or at bare minimum $10k... which is more volatile than the TF. I'de rather do more contracts and have more profit targets.
-I am accumilating data on the 6e, TF, and CL(bid/ask) for possible future use, but i haven't really done anything with it yet untill i get at least a few more months.
-I checked it on a 15 min time frame, i still think time-independent charts will yield better results. But thats just my opinion. You don't have to do what i say.
One of the reason i trade the US index futures is because you have other correlated markets, as well as the nyes tick, which heavily skews the odds in your favor. I still haven't found any type of market breadth indicator for those instruments( except the TF). There's also good inter-market analysis between those indices that don't exist on the CL or 6E(besides the US dollar). That imo helps a great deal as well.
Also, i've mentioned this before, those instruments, specially currency, are very geopolitical, which make them harder to trade, as to any news not only in the US, but also abroad will cause a sudden shift in price if you're not carefull or do not have a good new service.
So i am watching other instruments that i could use to trade, but its much easier to trade the ES/Ym than the cl, and i think most would agree. Once i gather more data and can come up with something that yields good results, ill share.
sylvester17.....
All those trades i mentioned meet the criteria that was mentioned before, which was a need for a high volume bar. The trades that you mention at 10:20 was a losing trade that you mentioned yourself and 11:40 do not show that same high volume surge that i annotated on the charts.... you can easily spot those.
I put that chart up not to argue with you, just to point out that using candlestick patterns alone will not make you money, even if high volume is involved......
Also, if you were trading the ES on this and not the CL, you would have nyse tick data, as well as other market breadth indicators showing the skewed activity to the upside for that day, so you could have just avoided short triggers all together and stayed safe... Like i said, you can't do that with CL bc no such thing exists.
Have you looked at the BetterVolume2 indicator? It measures volume relative to price action and can help pinpoint exhaustion moves and reversals.
Also, inside bars tend to work better if you only take breakouts in the direction of the trend. See DIBS as an example, which only takes long breakouts on 60min charts if 1) today's open is higher that last week's close and 2) price is above the open. The reverse applies for shorts.
1405 would qualify for exhaustion volume then IB reversal , make it 4 winners . A lot of folks focus on following the trend and seem to miss out on credible opportunities countertrend .
