NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





THREE SET UPS


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Jeff Castille with 215 posts (430 thanks)
    2. looks_two cunparis with 146 posts (154 thanks)
    3. looks_3 shodson with 125 posts (211 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Fat Tails with 73 posts (189 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Fat Tails with 2.6 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Jeff Castille with 2 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 shodson with 1.7 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 cunparis with 1.1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 252,656 views
    2. thumb_up 1,369 thanks given
    3. group 124 followers
    1. forum 1,073 posts
    2. attach_file 239 attachments




 
Search this Thread

THREE SET UPS

  #631 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709

I haven't had time to backtest this, but IBs that touch outside a Keltner seem to be more risky. My first on loss on Friday (a 44 tick loss) could have been prevented.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Are there any eval firms that allow you to sink to your …
Traders Hideout
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
New Micros: Ultra 10-Year & Ultra T-Bond -- Live Now
Treasury Notes and Bonds
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
61 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
39 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
26 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
Battlestations: Show us your trading desks!
18 thanks
  #632 (permalink)
 
cunparis's Avatar
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 1,162
Thanks Received: 2,093


shodson View Post
I haven't had time to backtest this, but IBs that touch outside a Keltner seem to be more risky. My first on loss on Friday (a 44 tick loss) could have been prevented.

Be careful drawing conclusions from an isolated event. You'll be chasing your tail this way. Backtest it and if the idea doesn't hold up let it go. You can't prevent all the losers in a mechanical system, there are just too many variables and optimizing to try will curve fit the system.

I don't put much faith in any price-based indicators. An inside bar is indecision. It'll break out either way, and the way it breaks out depends on what trader(s) are willing to do at the moment of the breakout. Seeing what price has done in the past x bars could be totally irrelevant, especially in 15 minute bars. All it takes is one trader with a market order and that changes everything.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #633 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709



cunparis View Post
Be careful drawing conclusions from an isolated event. You'll be chasing your tail this way. Backtest it and if the idea doesn't hold up let it go. You can't prevent all the losers in a mechanical system, there are just too many variables and optimizing to try will curve fit the system.

I don't put much faith in any price-based indicators. An inside bar is indecision. It'll break out either way, and the way it breaks out depends on what trader(s) are willing to do at the moment of the breakout. Seeing what price has done in the past x bars could be totally irrelevant, especially in 15 minute bars. All it takes is one trader with a market order and that changes everything.

Yep, one trade scenario a pattern does not make.

I just reviewed last week's trades and the performance of IB's outside of a Keltner. Trading all such IBs netted +2 ticks, so I don't know if there's much correlation to Keltner's. I think the problem I have is when the IB is much larger than my target, usually because it follows a large expansion bar. While it's a pause, relative to recent price action, the IB may still be much larger than normal volatility and the market may still be trading violently.

I meant to do a lot more backtesting this weekend but was too busy with other things. As such, I think I'm going to stop trading IBs until I get some more research done. Then again, we just had a winning IB this morning and now I wish I would have taken it, and a 14 tick sized IB on 6E that I would have taken ran up almost +100 ticks


Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #634 (permalink)
 
cunparis's Avatar
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 1,162
Thanks Received: 2,093

This morning's first IB trade was interesting.

It came up to my target (currently 19 ticks) but didn't hit it (or I didn't get filled). So I sat through a pullback. But then I saw professional buying so I got out with +12.

I'm doing more testing on the optimal target. I suspect maybe Tradestation is too generous with the fills as it reported today's trade filled +19 when real money trading with ninja I didn't get filled. i think I'll move my ticks in a few, maybe 16 like Jeff.



The dots are a work in progress but so far they've been helpful at picking reversal areas which allows me to pull my target in (if I'm quick enough) or look for a retest, or to trail my stop..

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #635 (permalink)
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 Silvester17 
Columbus, OH
Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
Posts: 3,603 since Aug 2009
Thanks Given: 5,139
Thanks Received: 11,527


shodson View Post
I haven't had time to backtest this, but IBs that touch outside a Keltner seem to be more risky. My first on loss on Friday (a 44 tick loss) could have been prevented.

I'm no keltner channel expert at all. and I know people trade it different ways. here's one possibility:

if price goes through the lower line and closes outside the lower line it's a bearish sign. if price goes through the lower line but closes inside the channel it's a bullish sign.

Reply With Quote
  #636 (permalink)
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Trading: YM and CL
Posts: 2,109 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 1,783
Thanks Received: 3,303


shodson View Post
Yep, one trade scenario a pattern does not make.

I just reviewed last week's trades and the performance of IB's outside of a Keltner. Trading all such IBs netted +2 ticks, so I don't know if there's much correlation to Keltner's. I think the problem I have is when the IB is much larger than my target, usually because it follows a large expansion bar. While it's a pause, relative to recent price action, the IB may still be much larger than normal volatility and the market may still be trading violently.

I meant to do a lot more backtesting this weekend but was too busy with other things. As such, I think I'm going to stop trading IBs until I get some more research done. Then again, we just had a winning IB this morning and now I wish I would have taken it, and a 14 tick sized IB on 6E that I would have taken ran up almost +100 ticks


All I can say.........every trade you lost on I won on...........to me that would suggest a close examination of your money management strategy......Also, don't trade the afternoon of options expiration day.......make it a rule....

Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #637 (permalink)
 aviat72 
San Francisco Bay Area
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT,TOS,IB
Trading: ES,CL,TF
Posts: 281 since Jun 2010
Thanks Given: 161
Thanks Received: 273

Jeff: Question about the size of the IB. Would you take a breakout if there is no wick in the candle in the direction of the breakout (and it closes there)?

When is a 15 minute IB not a 5 min bear flag?

The 15 min IB bar breakout just hit as I type this note in CLSept10 76.67. It has made it to +7 though not much traded there...

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #638 (permalink)
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Trading: YM and CL
Posts: 2,109 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 1,783
Thanks Received: 3,303


aviat72 View Post
Jeff: Question about the size of the IB. Would you take a breakout if there is no wick in the candle in the direction of the breakout (and it closes there)?

When is a 15 minute IB not a 5 min bear flag?

The 15 min IB bar breakout just hit as I type this note in CLSept10 76.67. It has made it to +7 though not much traded there...

You are trading during lunch time in NYC !!!! This isn't the best time to trade. I see half of al signals FAIL during this time period....So if you want to trade during this time period.....good luck with that.

As far as your other questions........I'm just focused on 15 minute charts so I can not say how the 15 min related to the 5.

Sure.....wickless inside bars......why not......that behavior usually shows some good activity.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING........TIME OF DAY.

Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #639 (permalink)
 aviat72 
San Francisco Bay Area
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT,TOS,IB
Trading: ES,CL,TF
Posts: 281 since Jun 2010
Thanks Given: 161
Thanks Received: 273


Jeff Castille View Post
You are trading during lunch time in NYC !!!! This isn't the best time to trade. I see half of al signals FAIL during this time period....So if you want to trade during this time period.....good luck with that.

As far as your other questions........I'm just focused on 15 minute charts so I can not say how the 15 min related to the 5.

Sure.....wickless inside bars......why not......that behavior usually shows some good activity.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING........TIME OF DAY.

Thanks Jeff. Not trading just watching. Post 12:30 the lunch hour is not necessarily bad; especially if ES is ripping.
BTW the signal worked well.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 1:15PM bar also worked out well. 2/2 in the past 45 minutes.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #640 (permalink)
 
Jeff Castille's Avatar
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Trading: YM and CL
Posts: 2,109 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 1,783
Thanks Received: 3,303


Welp.........another fine day for the "Three Set Ups" signals......see attached chart. No losers.....even the lunchtime trade.

I think that pretty much does it as far as these particuliar trades go.......I think me posting charts everyday is sort of redundant since everyone has the same chart.........so if you have questions I'll be happy to answer them......if I can.

Good trading to all,

Jeff

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	CL 09-10  7_19_2010 (15 Min).jpg
Views:	284
Size:	113.5 KB
ID:	17210  
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote




Last Updated on May 15, 2014


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts