NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





THREE SET UPS


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Jeff Castille with 215 posts (430 thanks)
    2. looks_two cunparis with 146 posts (154 thanks)
    3. looks_3 shodson with 125 posts (211 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Fat Tails with 73 posts (189 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Fat Tails with 2.6 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Jeff Castille with 2 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 shodson with 1.7 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 cunparis with 1.1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 252,621 views
    2. thumb_up 1,369 thanks given
    3. group 124 followers
    1. forum 1,073 posts
    2. attach_file 239 attachments




 
Search this Thread

THREE SET UPS

  #1061 (permalink)
sunbim31
Kolkata
 
Posts: 31 since Jun 2011
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 34

Today's Trades 26 8 2011

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Nifty 26 8 2011.png
Views:	490
Size:	25.2 KB
ID:	47487  
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Are there any eval firms that allow you to sink to your …
Traders Hideout
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
Futures True Range Report
The Elite Circle
New Micros: Ultra 10-Year & Ultra T-Bond -- Live Now
Treasury Notes and Bonds
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
61 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
39 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
26 thanks
Battlestations: Show us your trading desks!
26 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
  #1062 (permalink)
sunbim31
Kolkata
 
Posts: 31 since Jun 2011
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 34

Today's Trades 29 8 2011

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Nifty 29 8 2011.png
Views:	344
Size:	20.1 KB
ID:	47655  
Reply With Quote
  #1063 (permalink)
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 Silvester17 
Columbus, OH
Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
Posts: 3,603 since Aug 2009
Thanks Given: 5,139
Thanks Received: 11,527


just to show another great example.

bullish inside bar, increased volume and close to support. 50 ticks for that long.

maybe I should add, I normally don't use these setups for entries. it just serves as a possible change in trend.

but in this case I just needed an excuse to go LONG.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	TF 09-11 (5 Min)  8_30_2011.jpg
Views:	570
Size:	59.9 KB
ID:	47806  
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1064 (permalink)
sunbim31
Kolkata
 
Posts: 31 since Jun 2011
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 34

Today's Trades & Opportunities 2 9 2011

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Nifty 2 9 2011.png
Views:	532
Size:	30.9 KB
ID:	48265  
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1065 (permalink)
sunbim31
Kolkata
 
Posts: 31 since Jun 2011
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 34

Today's Trades & Opportunities

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Nifty 5 9 2011.png
Views:	550
Size:	27.6 KB
ID:	48416  
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1066 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader, TT, InvestorRT
Broker: Advantage Futures, Ninja/TT and InvestorRT/IQFeed.
Trading: Treasury futures
Posts: 312 since Nov 2010
Thanks Given: 194
Thanks Received: 911

@Jeff Castille, @shodson, & @cunparis: I've been through about the first 20-25 pages of this thread and I have a question about the risk/reward profile of the three setups. I'm looking at the time period you originally tested when you started this thread over a year ago. Profit targets were +8 +16 and the stop was one tick outside the setup bar. Jeff says the win% of the set ups was over 90%, which I haven't verified but which I don't question.

The 100 bar ATR of a 15 minute bar chart for the period in question ranged from about .30 to .60. (I calculated this using only day session + (45 minutes before the open) on IQFeed CL ##-## data).

I didn't try to calculate the average range of inside bars, but if it was anywhere near ATR for the period in question, it seems the asymmetry between stop and profit targets could account for much of the win %. (If the profit target had been one or two ticks, I'll bet the win% would have exceeded 99%). Linda Rashke once said in a seminar I attended that any S&P trade you made had over a 90% chance of being a one point winner if you were willing to wait long enough. Several contributors to the thread raised questions about this and were going to test ATR based targets and stops. I'll run my own tests, but I'm curious what they found out and whether any of the statistically inclined on this board could calculate the odds of a random trade being a winner based just on the profit/stop targets if there was a 50% chance prices could move up or down from any given price.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #1067 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,976 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 533
Thanks Received: 3,709


jstnbrg View Post
@Jeff Castille, @shodson, & @cunparis: I've been through about the first 20-25 pages of this thread and I have a question about the risk/reward profile of the three setups. I'm looking at the time period you originally tested when you started this thread over a year ago. Profit targets were +8 +16 and the stop was one tick outside the setup bar. Jeff says the win% of the set ups was over 90%, which I haven't verified but which I don't question.

The 100 bar ATR of a 15 minute bar chart for the period in question ranged from about .30 to .60. (I calculated this using only day session + (45 minutes before the open) on IQFeed CL ##-## data).

I didn't try to calculate the average range of inside bars, but if it was anywhere near ATR for the period in question, it seems the asymmetry between stop and profit targets could account for much of the win %. (If the profit target had been one or two ticks, I'll bet the win% would have exceeded 99%). Linda Rashke once said in a seminar I attended that any S&P trade you made had over a 90% chance of being a one point winner if you were willing to wait long enough. Several contributors to the thread raised questions about this and were going to test ATR based targets and stops. I'll run my own tests, but I'm curious what they found out and whether any of the statistically inclined on this board could calculate the odds of a random trade being a winner based just on the profit/stop targets if there was a 50% chance prices could move up or down from any given price.

I have studied and backtested the IB setups quite extensively and found that they best work when you consider IB range relative to other bar ranges (NR4s, NR7s, etc) and if the trade is managed properly with reward > risk. Also, you have to look at volume as well. Using the BetterVolumne indicator, the "Normal" or "Low" volume IBs are more profitable.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #1068 (permalink)
 satnamsingh 
Northridge, CA U.S.
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja trader
Trading: futures
Posts: 7 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 36
Thanks Received: 1

Hello Mr. Mike Sir,
Good Morning to you and every body.
Let me introduce to you and all friends. My name is Singh, Satnam I am trading for last 3-4 years but I donot know too much so many times I lost money never made. Now I made my my mind to learn about 2-3 indicators which are commonly used one of my friend he is so nice to me he intruduced my your web site right away I followed his advice and became member. He downloaded on my computer from your website MACD BB V4 idicator which I like very good but I donot know too much about how to use it I will be so greatful if any body can teach me or guide me for at least 2-3 idicators. My account is very low luckily I have a government job but unfortunately I am handicap cannot go to work for my health condition Now I pray to God to make me success in the trading because I can do it at my home need not drive anywhere.
Thsi web site is so EXCELLENT I HAVE NO WORDS TO PRAISE ONLY I CAN PRAY FOR MR. MIKE AND ALL FRIENDS FOR THERE GREAT SUCCESS.
SINCERELY,
SINGH

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #1069 (permalink)
 einstein 
toronto, canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: sierracharts
Trading: oil
Posts: 53 since Dec 2011
Thanks Given: 66
Thanks Received: 56

Just found this thread and have read my way through 50%. First thanks to Jeff for the thread and to all contributors. I do have one question and I hope that all those who have had some experience with the 15M CL IB setup can respond. Altho the method seems have a relatively high win ratio the Risk/reward is the opposite of what most traders recommend. For example I have read that most professional and successful traders have a win ratio of no more than 40%. The reason they are profitable in the long run is they set targets of 2,3,4 and some times more than their stop-loss. A 100 tick win in CL makes up for many 10 tick stopouts. In light of the large stoploss position dictated in using a 15M chart, is this setup really profitable in the longrun? Does the realtively high win ratio compensate enough for the inverse risk reward I see many are using? Thanks for any insights you can offer this newbie.

Reply With Quote
  #1070 (permalink)
 
Gabriyele's Avatar
 Gabriyele 
LA/CAlifornia REpublic
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT7
Trading: Chello
Posts: 3,017 since May 2011


Classic thread, thank you Jeff!!

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote




Last Updated on May 15, 2014


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts