shodson 

So, anything here red star and yellow star? Also, currencies drive the price of oil since oil is priced in dollars, so if the dollar is tanking then so is oil. Has anybody done any correlation research between dollar index/currency pairs vs the price of oil? I've always wanted to build a dollar/oil tracking ratio and look for large deviations from their correlation and how to trade that, ie, if the dollar is strengthening and oil is not we should either short the dollar, buy oil, or both. I'm sure a bunch of hedgies are already doing this sort of statistical arbitrage.

Yes.....those are the news events to stay clear of......15 minutes either side

shodson 

So, anything here red star and yellow star? Also, currencies drive the price of oil since oil is priced in dollars, so if the dollar is tanking then so is oil. Has anybody done any correlation research between dollar index/currency pairs vs the price of oil? I've always wanted to build a dollar/oil tracking ratio and look for large deviations from their correlation and how to trade that, ie, if the dollar is strengthening and oil is not we should either short the dollar, buy oil, or both. I'm sure a bunch of hedgies are already doing this sort of statistical arbitrage.

Crude is related to the dollar but it's more of an inverse correlation. If the dollar goes down then it takes more of them to buy a barrel of crude.

However crude is also correlated to the health of the economy and that's where it gets tricky because that can be opposite the correlation with the dollar.

I go for very short term swings (usually) so it doesn't really matter much for me. For longer term trades it could be important.

Lolu or Shodson,

I think both of you are using NT7.

Could you please post your NT7 chart template?

I think I've got the right indicators in my indicator set but my chart isn't changing colors for the time of day and there are other differences.

Thanks,
Todd

shodson 

Here's today's 6:00 - 11:30am session for CL and 6E side-by-side, can you tell me which is which? And which one leads which?

On 2nd thought, to decouple the correlation from the Euro this chart uses the DX (dollar index futures) but it's a little harder to follow because it has an inverse relationship with oil.

CL had a nice counter-trend Arrow at 8:45 and a nice with-trend forward-and-reverse breakdown at 10:45.



I can't prove it (yet) but I think taking breakouts with-trend will perform better than counter-trend breakouts. What do you think?

Jeff Castille 

-10 TICKS TODAY.......OUCH !!!!!

Jeff doesn't your plan call for a SAR when the stop is hit on the same bar of entry (therefore an outside bar) ?....this way u should have gone short 78,50 level, right?

gtichauer 

Jeff doesn't your plan call for a SAR when the stop is hit on the same bar of entry (therefore an outside bar) ?....this way u should have gone short 78,50 level, right?

I've only been doing the stop and reverse with the inside bar.......today that would have working nicely with the outside bar as well.

if there is an inside bar just before the open, do you trade it? Do you take the setup (enter a few minutes after the open) ? or does the inside/outside/reversal bar have to occur after the open?

cunparis 

if there is an inside bar just before the open, do you trade it? Do you take the setup (enter a few minutes after the open) ? or does the inside/outside/reversal bar have to occur after the open?

I've looked at this both ways..........at this point......if the signal occurs on the bar just prior to the open or at the end of lunch......I take it....as long as the entry is within the trading hours.

shodson 

CL had a nice counter-trend Arrow at 8:45 and a nice with-trend forward-and-reverse breakdown at 10:45. I can't prove it (yet) but I think taking breakouts with-trend will perform better than counter-trend breakouts. What do you think?

This could very well be the case.

In doing my candlestick research I've read and listened to as much Steve Nison as I can find and.......he recommends combining the japanese candlesticks WITH some western technical analysis. So perhaps your idea is in the same vein.