Video review today 7/6

Runningeagle 

Futures trading is NOT rocket science. Any Beginner can learn it. There is NO reason at all to think a beginner cannot learn how to trade futures.

Hey Runningeagle - you are right as Price Action works in every market and every time frame. However you are missing my point.

My point is this; futures markets are for professional traders. If you are a beginner and learning to trade, you need to be in a forex market where the risk is low and the cost of tuition is low. If you cannot consistently earn profits in a forex market, you are not going to in a futures market. Every professional trader starts small and builds his position size over time, within his comfort level.

I want to be clear on this; I am in no way telling anyone they cannot do something. I firmly believe the opposite. Anyone can achieve anything they set their mind to. What i am saying is that if you want to do this long term you have to be able to be objective and develop yourself into a professional. This is not likely to happen if you are trading a futures market where the tick size and risk are large which inhibits your ability to remove emotions.

Hope this clears things up.

Josh

Runningeagle 

Futures trading is NOT rocket science. Any Beginner can learn it. There is NO reason at all to think a beginner cannot learn how to trade futures.

One more thing. You say this is not "rocket science". You are right, it is not. But in my opinion trading is HARDER than rocket science. In science you have a constant set of variables or theories which can be applied to making rockets / ships / whatever. That does not exist in trading. The closest thing to this in trading is understanding the market cycle, the traders equation and directional probabilities. All of these and all other variables change constantly. Not to mention i can easily go to an accredited school and "learn" to become a rocket scientist. This is non existent in the trading world.

Video Review

Open: yest sell signal on daily. heavy two sided trading, small TR. DB yest low. AIS but bears need strong BO below for bear trend day. so far some form of TR day looks more likely.

13 L2, F BL rev. but low in large TR. swing short.
15 weak BR FT. large H2 / FL2 but buying into BR TL.
16 BRS STC 15. weak buy. SA.
17 DB, MDB, BB 16. WK BR CH / TR. BLSHS. LOM.
19 BL BO BR CH. BLS need FT.
20 BL BO gap and FT. prob AIL test yest HTR, or poss BVC.
21 EMA GB / FBLBO / DTBF 3 / large L2. WK sell compared to buying pressure. swing short for test of low / LOY.
22 BR EB. WK H1 prob SA.
23 BOPB H1 for FBR rev. buying high in LOM. swing buy. poss SA.
25 2E 21. FBLBO. BLS GU below
26 25 failed to trigger. instead H2. but buying high in poss TR. swing buy.
27 FH2 / FBLBO and 2EMA gap bar. 20 BTC BLS exit BE. AS
28 lower % sell. TTR. RS
29 BR EB. remains AIS / BR CH. prob test LOY and trigger daily sell.
30 BR FT, filled BL BOG. prob SA for BOPBS.
32 H2 HL buy setup. mid of BR CH. 50/50, BRS slight advantage for new low.
33 BL EB. building buying pressure. BO test of BR entry / TL.
39 2ES off BR TL / top of small TR
40 WK BR EB, need FT. less than 10 pip OR. BOM.
41 BL BO, need FT for AIL. poss MG.
42 FBLBO / FF / WBRF
53 FBRBO. rev up from DB / HL MTR. small TR. BOM, LOM, BLSHS.
61 BLBO of TR with FT, AIL. BTC. 60 MG.


Abbreviations;
AS Acceptable Scalp
RS required swing
BL Bull
BR Bear
CH channel
HTR high trading range
WK weak
BOG breakout gap
GB gap bar
FBLBO failed bull breakout
BVC buy vacuum
FBR failed bear
FBL failed bull
GU gave up / give up
2E sec entry
WBRF wedge bear flag
WBLF wedge bull flag

mastercraft29 

Hey Stillgreen - good to hear from you, hope you are doing well. Unfortunately I have been too busy outside of trading to work on my book lately. Although i have most of it finished (all of text and about 50 charts with annotations). But i still have atleast another 50 charts to add with annotations, which will take me some time. I am hoping to have it done in the next two months, but i cant say with certainty. Once i have it completed and ready to release i will post more information here (I will be offering BPA and FuturesIO members a discount). Josh

Hi,

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Mike

Runningeagle 

I understand your thoughts, but learning to trade for a living is a professional. You do not need to be trading hundreds of thousands of dollars with any complex contract - option configuration. You simply need to have a single contract that makes 1 tick on average with a stop loss using eminis. That means you can start with $750 and protect your initial risk capital more than worrying about profits. Learning Risk management because you have so little is very easy to teach. If you drop below the minimum margin size, trading is stopped until you have enough to start again just like learning to walk. Small losses "vaccinate" the beginner against the fear and greed problems faced when there is a lot to make or a lot to lose. Then you make some profits and protect those profits as you become consistent. If you blow out a $750 account size, no big deal, Trade the ES, CL, NQ, etc.. working on becoming a 1 tick specialist. Then work on 2 ticks consistently, moving to 1 point per trade as your final goal without trailing stop loss. When you later add a trailing stop loss to good wins, they extend into extra profits that are bonuses, not expected gains and it improves the win amount to loss amount ratio. Once you have that grow your profits and start scaling bi-weekly if possible, then weekly, then daily as your account allows scaling while only risking 5% or less of the total trading capital per trade by have good stop loss management. Take some money out of the original account profits and trade multiple instruments using dissimilar methodologies to distribute risk and smooth the equity curve. The reason I know this works is because I have trained several beginners starting them in Futures. Last November 8th, I took a beginner student of only 5 months and showed him how to do aftermarket, intra-trade scaling. He made over $15,000 that ELECTION night using only the ES. So although I understand your thoughts, I am not in agreement.

What kind of setups are your students entering - reversals, continuations, range fades, breakouts? I'm trying to understand how your learning methods actually work. How large are stops? When do you scale in and for what kind of trades - how far away do you students scale in (scaling greatly increases risk quickly and if you are already on the wrong side of the trade)?

The markets are very volatile and even a 1 point stop loss in the ES is not enough a lot of the time, especially the ES where there is so much HFT activity that the market, even if it goes up say 5 points might make a very zigzag-ed way up there. Most of the time if you enter in the ES there will be at least a 1/2 tick pullback entering with limits or stops, usually more.

I have to agree with Mastercraft here for "most" beginners, it would be highly recommended to try either forex or something like TST. There is no way you won't lose money regardless (again statistically speaking, most retail traders fail) so if you use futures, the risk is so much greater and the emotions are very real, unless you are rich and don't care about losing money.

I'm not attacking you, your methodology might work but can we see some entries, exits on charts, also to get a better idea of the timing on these trades? (1/2 tick trades happen way too quick, only computers/algo can do that fast of decision making consistently and reliably).

Also in the ES making 1/2 ticks is way different to +3/4 points. You can enter and due to the volatility can get 1/2 ticks almost any time, but to make 2/3 points you need some directional bias.

Runningeagle 

I take my students from fundamentals to advanced knowledge of: Futures Markets Types of Traders Brokers Margin Requirements Paper Trading Charting Indicators Index & Commodity Fundamentals Contract Specifics Trading Platforms EA's VPS Risk Management & Hedging Identifying Trends Options Calendar Reports Types of Trades Placing Trades Compounding Scaling Trading Psychology Fear & Greed Losing Money Trading Record Book Organization Trading System Analysis Trading System Development Back Testing vs Real Results 3 Example Systems & one proven EA Trading as a Company - Tax Advantages Trading Tax Attorney & CPA Team Importance I give my students several spreadsheets to show them how making a few ticks regularly and consistently is better than swinging for the fence, but not cutting off winners early. Futures trading is not Rocket Science and anyone can learn it. But learning all of what is needed is important. Beginners can trade futures and be profitable with a short "Hand Holding" period. An Empty or Full Can of Gold Coins makes no noise, while a Can half full of Copper coins makes a lot of noise.

okay, that's a big list of stuff but you didn't answer my question, show some trades - do a print screen and show entries and exits for one day in the emini and write down the rational for the trades so that we can make a fair assessment on your teaching methods. For example for today ES - 7/21/17:

1) First ES trade I shorted a below a bull reversal bar because I was expecting a second leg down. The ES has been very tight recent so I didn't trust the setup too much and got out quickly. I shorted using a sell stop 1 tick below a bear reversal bar breaking out below the 5 min and 15 min 20 EMAs, it was also a short pullback following a bear leg correcting an earlier wedge

2) I bought a reversal up following a test of the earlier lower trading range (I entered at the market as I saw a relatively big bull drive hence why I got at the top of the earlier bear bar, but following the bull reversal bar at support, I thought it made sense to look for a reversal trade). I wasn't too sure of the trading this late in the day (never traded this late on a friday) so i got out due to risk of a short pullback setup but should have remained in the trade.

Earlier in the day was trading the NQ where I made some better trades

You must be kidding,

Futures are alot safer than forex and traded on regulated exchanges, forex is NOT. I traded futures right from day one. Saying forex is safer than futures and futures is for professional traders is completely wrong. IMO Forex is the very last instrument I would tell a beginner to trade.

mastercraft29 

Hey Runningeagle - you are right as Price Action works in every market and every time frame. However you are missing my point. My point is this; futures markets are for professional traders. If you are a beginner and learning to trade, you need to be in a forex market where the risk is low and the cost of tuition is low. If you cannot consistently earn profits in a forex market, you are not going to in a futures market. Every professional trader starts small and builds his position size over time, within his comfort level. Josh

Runningeagle 

I don't train people who are not my students

OK well best of luck in your trading and to your students

GTNZ 

You must be kidding, Futures are alot safer than forex and traded on regulated exchanges, forex is NOT. I traded futures right from day one. Saying forex is safer than futures and futures is for professional traders is completely wrong. IMO Forex is the very last instrument I would tell a beginner to trade.

A beginner should trade sim at least 6 months prior to any type of real trading and have a general idea of what they are doing and why the market is doing what it's doing (i.e. if the market is selling off, why this is happening, gauging the strength of the selling, etc), as well as have an idea of how to manage risk which is incredibly difficult, at least 1 year of study (you can't argue this, it's just not possible to quickly learn trading).

Both forex and futures have merits and drawbacks but both will lose you money if you don't know how to trade, it just happens that this can happen very quickly with futures. Unless someone is willing to put in serious amounts of time into learning how to trade (thousands of hours) and stick with it even through really upsetting times then they shouldn't trade.