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the correct entry for yesterdays 48 was above the 48 bar, or above 51. i sold the 47 close on 50 when i did not think 1 pip above 48 would be reached after the tail on 49. however i miss managed this trade and exited at BE on 54 which i immediately regretted, but hey thats how trading goes. when traders sell the close of 48 for instance betting on a climax, they usually use a wide stop based on a mm up based on the height of the climax and will scale in higher. however i do not do this and instead rely on my 10 pip stop and will consider entering again based on context if i am stopped out.
there is nothing wrong with only taking 1 trade, that demonstrates extreme patience and discipline! in fact, i did not enter my first trade today until bar 61 (12pm).
i thought the 9 entry was a good setup and had i been trading (i dont start until around 830) i would have taken it too.
you are right as big bear bars during a bull trend are great opportunities. they are a breif mark down in price and soon will be bought by strong bulls. i like to enter when the bears or bulls need to be strongest (learned this from Al) but like you said, context is everything.
i am not familiar with Bob volmans methods but have heard of him. from what i remember his method is a breakout method, which is a type of momentum trade. (pullbacks are value trades). personally i prefer value (pullbacks) versus entering on breakouts since the stop is wider and the failure rate is higher on breakouts. remember, 80% of breakouts of a TR fail, and 80% of attempts to reverse a trend fail.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Overnight there was a break of the tight bull channel on the 60 minute chart after a trend channel overshoot yesterday, which will likely lead to a second leg down and test the higher lows, and possibly all the way back to the start of the channel. This also aligns with the first break of the bear MC on the daily chart. Today is friday so weekly support and resistance is important. The bar is currently a bull reversal bar as expected below last weeks first bear entry after a failed bear BO and strong reversal. The bulls want the week to close on its high (yesterdays high 0679). The bears want the week to close as a bear entry bar so at a minimum below this weeks open of 0628. Both targets are within reach so based on this and todays TTR open, today will likely contain heavy two sided trading as both sides battle for their case.
19 ttr open at start of yesterdays bull channel, so area where the bulls want to form support and TR. the bears want to fill yesterdays 29 bull BO gap. bulls want to fill bear gap open.
20 LOM, BOM. no SP from either side yet since 12. middle of TTR extreme equillibrium. bulls trying to form larger failed low 2. reasonable swing buy.
21 bears lacked urgency on gap down open, making bear trend from the open unlikely. instead bulls forming support but need BO above 2 with FT before AIL.
22 3 bar bull spike, BBP, 21 bull gap. bulls made SP buying below 18. but no BO above 2 yet.
23 2BR for low 2 / wedge bear flag. but again entering in middle of TTR during LOM, so swing only. poss BOPBL from 22 and bear trap.
24 BOPB high 1 buy setup, but into high of TTR so risky.
25 bull BO, AIL. potential MG, mm tgt is gap open. but upside may be limited (small bull channel), closed at TC line copied from TL off lows.
26 2BR for failed bull BO, filled bull 25 gap. but weak close. prob SA for weak high 1 into bull TC, but willing to scale in higher. better to look to buy off bull TL.
27 slight close above TC. may be steeper bull channel off 13-19 lows rather than 1-13.
28 stronger 2BR, original TC held. bears sold above 26 / 27 close for scalp down and test of bull TL. still LOM, weak bull channel.
29 buy setup for failed low 2 / high 2 BOPBL, but high in bull channel so swing only.
30 sell setup for failed high 2 / low 2 and final flag reversal off bull TC although weak SB. and bears have not made SP since 12 so downside prob limited.
31 tight bull MC up from 20 with no break yet but three pushes up (22,25,31). still contained by bull TC. best to buy off TL.
32 bear BO of failed high 2, LO bears reached SP. but still within bull channel potential buy setup soon, still AIL.
33 middle of TTR was magnet. closed right at bull TL, bulls will not want 3rd CC bear bar, next bar important bears need strong FT, preferably BO below opening range before AIS. otherwise sell vacuum test of TL / TR low.
34 3 strong bear bars. second leg down from 31 wedge top and 34 strong bear spike likely even if small. 34 potential MG. mm down from 34 spike is open of week.
35 bulls attempt to make bear BO fail. strong bull bar but largely overlaps 34. TR will likely continue if bears do not get strong FT below.
36 BOPB low 1 short, bears sold 35 close, sign of aggresive bears but could not break below 35. also shorting into lows on so far a TR day. BTW for more information.
37 outside bear bar, bear BO of TR. bears need FT bar for AIS.
38 doji FT bar. SOW but prob still AIS for atleast near term. bear tgt just below (yest 29 bull BO gap). bulls need to break back into TR and hold above support.
39 bulls gave up, bears filled yest gap. first mm tgt based on 34 spike / height of TR. next is 39 MG. bears will try to form spike and channel bear trend.
40 weak reversal attempt to turn 39 into SCX, instead prob SA for scalp down.
41 buy setup could not trigger. tight bear MC down from 36. 2 legs down likely from 37 outside bear bar.
42 reached first MM tgt, found some buying (tail), but 39 gap still open so prob mm down based on it. spike and channel bear trend still poss (42 second leg down strong with little overlap and no bull trend bars) making it a stronger case than a trending trading range day. bears want to fill yest gap open and test Wednesdays 93 start of bull channel, but 93 far away so less likely.
44 slight break of bear MC. no sign of strong bulls yet, but weak low 1 after a low 1 that did not result in SP (40). no bull SP since 32 BO. but poss bb 44/41 for test of EMA / bottom of upper TR.
47 starting to get some two sided trading, bulls bought below 41/44 for scalp up. poss bear channel after 2 legs sideways to up.
48 small ET (42,44,45,47). LO bulls buying below lows, will scale in lower. 42-48 poss small final flag.
49 bulls attempt to form 2BR, failed. LO bulls forced to exit with smaller profit or scale in lower. tight bear channel from 37-49.
51 bulls attempt at final flag reversal / ET bottom. but very little BP, no LO bull scalps yet. strong bear channel.
54 so far bulls holding support at mm based on opening range, and bear strength decreasing. poss broader bear channel copied from 39-45-49 lows and attached to 36 but not yet confirmed. other potential channel is from 40-47.
56 second entry for ET bottom, bulls are buying below lows. but have not made SP. first touch of EMA prob will be sold (20EMA gap).
60 SCX to 39 mm tgt and bear TC overshoot.
61 weak low 1 after a SCX. reasonable scalp for test of EMA.
71 first touch of EMA in over 20 bars. met min requirement of two legs up after 60 SCX. low 2 short at EMA and first break of bear channel. but ttr and small bars. may continue sideways until close
Today was a spike and channel bear trend day. After a wedge top and failure by the bulls to hold support of a trading range, prices sold off in a tight bear channel. The bear channel was strong, trapping bulls out and preventing them from reaching a scalpers profit (even with scaling in), for nearly the entire day. It could also be considered and acted as a small pullback bear trend. Once prices reached the mm tgt based on the bull give up bar (39) prices went sideways in a ttr. The day will likely remain quiet and close near its low, giving the bears a bear entry bar on the weekly chart.
Best Trades
Today was a tricky day for scalpers. Because of this i did not mark any acceptable scalps today. (small pullback trends often are hard to enter because they seem to have low %, even though the % is higher than it appears). However there were some scalps that could have been taken such as selling above 36, below 47, below 57 failed second entry, and below 71 although the SP has not yet been reached on the 71 entry. But i do not feel they were strong enough to be considered "best trades" and are for more experienced traders. Also it is common on days like this for a scalper to sit on the sidelines due to what appear to be low probability entries.
20 failed low 2 / high 2. stop entry in middle of TTR and LOM, therefore needs to be taken for a swing.
31 wedge top, failed high 2 into bull TC and final flag reversal. Prices were still in a bull channel and bull MC up from 20 with no break of either, so again a swing entry.
37 low 1 after strong bear spike. but shorting into lows of so far a TR day so swing only.
47 variant of a low 2 (45 low 1), ET continuation pattern, and first 2 legged pullback. due to entering in the middle of a small range, near the LOD and after reaching the mm tgt from the opening range. although the % was likely high enough for a scalp this would be best to swing.
If you find my posts helpful, please provide "thanks" for journal challenge (link below, I am on first page)
I have had questions on what a high 1/2 or first/second entry is, so here is an excerpt from my book to help clarify. once i have completed the chart annotations to go along with this i will post it as well. hope this helps!
Leg Counting
This section on leg counting is very closely related with two legged moves and is commonly used to identify the end of a previous leg or start of a new leg. As stated in the previous chapter, the market often creates two legged moves. The end of the first leg can be identified when a leg in the opposite direction (counter trend leg) forms, setting up the start of a second leg in the original trend direction. In a bull trend, this first attempt to reverse the market is considered a first entry. This was the first attempt by the bears to reverse the market from a bull trend, and turn it into a trading range or bear trend. It is very common for this first attempt to fail, and instead setup a continuation pattern. A second attempt to reverse has a higher probability of success (also known as a second entry or second chance entry), but this largely depends on context.
A high 1 in a bull trend, or a low 1 in a bear trend, is the first failed attempt to reverse the market, setting up a with trend entry. These often form during spikes, but are also common throughout trading ranges and trend channels. During the spike phase of a bull trend, the first bar that ticks below the low of the previous bar is the first entry to reverse the market. Entering above this bar which is often a small pause, or a bull reversal bar (but can also be a bear bar) is a high 1 buy setup. This is a failed bear breakout of a micro bull trend and has a high probability of resulting in a profit. However after a climax, or a high 1 at the top of a trading range should be avoided as the probability favors a failure rather than a continuation of the bull trend.
A high 2, or second entry long, is the second attempt to reverse the market after the first failed. This generally occurs a few bars after the first attempt, and like a high 1 is when prices tick above the high of the previous bar. They can be a second attempt to reverse a trend, or a second attempt to continue the trend after a counter trend move (ending the pullback and first counter trend leg, and setting up the start of the second leg). These are common throughout bull and bear trends, and trading ranges. However they should only be considered as an entry and have the highest probability of success during a bull trend, off the EMA in a bull trend, or at the bottom of a trading range, and should never be taken in a bear trend unless it is a major trend reversal and the context supports a reasonable swing trade and reversal. In the case of a bear trend, a failed high 2 is a great short setup, as the weak bulls who bought the failed reversal will be forced to exit and will not look to enter for at least a few bars, creating a brief period of one sided activity and a great opportunity for a short.
Failed second entries are great setups due to one side being trapped. These setups can generate large two legged moves in the opposite direction as prices search for value where both sides are willing to initiate trades. Or, the failure can result in one more attempt to reverse or continue the markets direction (wedge, or third entry). Second entries most often fail during trading ranges, or as failed attempts to reverse a trend. For example buying a high 2 at the top of a trading range has a higher probability to fail to breakout above the trading range than of the trading range continuing and prices testing back into the range. The same goes for a low 2 at the bottom of a trading range, and traders will often place limit orders above or below these bars betting on the failure. These entries also commonly fail when they are counter trend. As in a bear trend, a second entry long has a higher probability of failing than of reversing the market into a bull trend.
A third entry, or wedge, is the alternative of a failed second entry. This is when the second entry fails, but instead of creating a two legged move in the opposite direction, prices attempt to reverse or continue the trend in a third attempt. This is considered a failed failure, as the failed second entry failed, and instead has resulted in a third attempt by the market to continue the trend. These are less reliable when entering counter trend (attempting to reverse a trend), and have a higher probability of success when taking with trend at the end of a counter trend move (also known as a wedge flag). Although these are closely related to wedge reversals, most reversal attempts fail and lead to continuation patterns so should largely be avoided without a prior trend line break and strength in the counter trend direction. When a wedge fails, prices often quickly reach a measured move based on the height of the wedge.
Overnight there was a second sell climax on the 60 minute chart for a two legged retest of the bear low after a trend line break. This lead to a large gap down open, increasing the probability of a trend in either direction. The bears had a chance to begin a trend from the open or a gap and bear channel day, but so far have lacked urgency, and instead may lead to a bull trend. However until there is a trend in either direction, traders will look to BLSHS as the bulls and bears fight for control, foming a trading range.
18 LOM, BOM, small trading range or weak bear channel. bulls have failed twice to make SP buying below lows (9,16). AIS from gap down, but bears losing momentum, BBP.
20 bulls attempt at a large failed low 2 / high 2. also a varaint of a double bottom pullback (6/13). but stop entry in middle of LOM so swing only.
21 BBP, bulls getting CC bull bars, bears are not. EMA has magnetic pull.
22 converging triangle, 3 pushes up, 3 pushes down. BOM.
23 ii bear setup for failed high 2 and low 2. but BOM, into bottom of small range, so swing only. bulls so far defending stop below 20. neither side has made SP in 10 bars, extreme equillibrium.
24 bulls defended 20 stop, within MF of EMA. bulls need BO above 1 / EMA with FT before AIL. 1-24 poss final bear flag.
25 sell setup for failed high 2 / wedge bear flag. but another stop entry in middle of LOM, swing only. BOM continues.
26 bulls becoming more aggressive, buying below bars instead of below lows. but still need BO above 1 and EMA with FT.
28 bears sold EMA, bulls failed to reach SP again.
32 bear BO, poss MG or EG. next bar important, bears need FT. if not, potential final flag reversal / SCX for 2 legs up.
33 weak bear FT, but also weak bull reversal for failed bear BO. BTW for more info.
34 turned 32 into EG. reached first bull tgt (above 31 SCX). next bull tgt mm up. turned 1-31 into final flag reversal. strong bull bar, reversed past 30 closes. sellers since 1 now holding losing position. prob AIL soon for 2 legs up.
35 bears want ET continuation pattern / failed BO above opening range. more likely bears give up. bull FT bar, AIL. weak bear reversal for failed bull BO. bulls aggressively bought 34 close (LO BTC bulls not filled). 35 prob MG, or mm based on 35 close.
36 stronger 2 bar bear reversal, MDT with 34. but bears prob will need second entry after strong 3 bar bull rally.
37 decent bear entry bar for failed bull BO. back into opening range. filled 35 gap.
39 two leg pullback after bull BO. poss start of bull channel. but back into middle of opening range so 50/50%. bulls want to keep 34 BO gap open.
40 failed BO above and below TR. but second leg up more likely than second leg down after 35 bull spike. variant of a high 2 buy setup, ok swing buy but middle of range and still LOM.
42 34/35 BTC bulls scaling in for retest of closes, bears exiting with SP after selling same closes. so far bulls holding above support of opening range. no two CC bars since 37, indecision.
43 strong bull EB. 10 pip failure for 36 stop entry bears.
44 good bull EB and FT bar, kept 34 BO gap open, SOS. small 43 gap as well. bears want lower high and second leg down. bulls want spike and channel bull trend and second leg up.
46 outside bear bar, 34 BTC bulls exited BE. but again failed to reach 36 stop entry 10 pip tgt. prices may remain in ttr until 12 FOMC announcement.
50 reached 36 bear tgt. slight break below TR, near filling bull BO gap. weakens bull case of spike and channel.
51 buy setup for a failed low 2 at bottom of TR / high 2 / wedge bull flag. bulls held skunk stop below 34. but within small bear channel down from 36. ok swing buy but SSW.
52 did not trigger 51 buy setup. but weak low 1 into bottom of TR and 2 legs down since 36.
54 strong bull trend bar. poss buy vacuum test of top of range. bulls need FT bar for AIL, otherwise ttr continues.
55 good bull FT bar. mm up from 54 / opening range is new HOD. poss bull channel from 33-51-53 lows but not yet confirmed. 55 potential MG.
56 reached first mm tgt, strong 3 bar bull spike. mm continues to grow based on spike if prices break above TC from TL copied to 35 close. closed just below TC line.
57 weak reversal setup, but also weak high 1 buy setup into bull TC line. NA in 15 mins, poss catalyst for BO. so far days range is small (20 pips or so), likely to double by EOD. or continue to get failed BOs up and down for large TR day.
58 stronger ii bear setup. rally prob limited by TC.
64 ttr at bull TC and new HOD. bulls taking profits. poss final flag reversal for test of TL / top of opening range.
Today was a large trading range day and will probably close around the open (most TR days do). After a failed bear BO and failed bull BO, prices formed a higher low and bull channel, reaching a new HOD (which ultimately failed) and mm based on the opening range. Todays daily range is relatively small compared to most days, so there is a chance of a strong BTC / STC trend into the close, increasing the daily range.
Best Trades
33 failed bear BO (bears lacked FT), buy signal for SCX and final flag reversal. however weak signal bar, but reasonable swing for 2 legs up.
52 weak low 1 into bottom of TR and after a two legged move in a trading range. acceptable scalp and low of the afternoon.
66 final flag reversal at bull TC line and mm tgt based on opening range. reasonable scalp for test of bull TL / top of opening range.
84 EMA gap bar after first break of bull TL, and large high 2 (78 first leg up). ok swing buy, but unsure of outcome and late in day so may be best to wait for tomorrow.
*Another trader asked to see my trades posted who said he wanted to see if i could execute as well as i can read price action. I understand people like confirmation/proof this is possible. And I am not opposed to this, but my personal trading is not the purpose of this thread. My goal is to help others understand price action and probabilities, not talk about my trades. However i did post my trades for today, which is nothing to brag about, but does show how a price action trader who is patient and disciplined can recover loses and end up with a profitable day. Again, this is not my intention, but if anyone else can give me a reasonable explanation as to how my personal trading helps you, I will be open to showing and discussing my trades.
If you find my posts helpful, please provide "thanks" for journal challenge (link below, I am on first page)
Overnight there was a third sell climax and parabolic wedge climax on the 60 min chart, making two legs sideways to up likely. Today opened with a gap down which resulted in a failed bear BO and bull spike, potentially setting up a bull trend from the open. However today is a FOMC announcement day, so anything can happen.
19 7 bull spike put mkt in AIL. buy setup for a failed low 2 and high 2. also a wedge bull flag (9,13,19) after first break of bull mc.
21 mm up from bull spike is just around yest low which is also a magnet.
22 first close above EMA, bears tried selling 21 close for reversal, but no bear SP yet this morning so low % shorting until then. bear flag premise unlikely.
23 2BR for failed break above ttr / final bull flag. but bears could not close below EMA, AIL, and no bear SP.
26 stronger 2BR for final flag, but suspected spike and bull channel.
27 BOPB high 1 /variant of high 2 (25). 26 bear setup failed to trigger, weakening bear case.
28 ii buy setup off bull TL from 1-19 and large failed low 2. 21 poss small negative MG, tgt is gap open / yest low.
33 outside bear bar but after outside bull bar and in ttr. 10 pip failure for 19 stop order bulls, SOW. NA at 10, prob mostly sideways until then.
34 BSP, bulls will not want third bar to close as bear, and off bull TL, likely to BTC.
35 bears got 3rd cc bear bar. 32 LO bears reached SP. transition to TR prob soon, 33/26 double top may be high of range. broad bull channel also poss but not yet confirmed (copied from highs).
37 broke bear MC down from 33 and reversed from TL copied from TC and anchored to 1. making 36 prob sell vacuum test of bull TL. also MDB with 36.
40 39 was BOPB low 1 short to middle of ttr. 10 pip failure for LO bulls who bought 36 close. but closed right at bull TL, bulls likely to BTC and defend TL. this is where bears need to be strongest.
41 doji, so some bulls BTC but failed to reverse strongly. MDB with 37 and high 2 off bull TL but weak signal bar.
42 bulls gave up, forced to exit or scale in lower. bull channel failed, so TR. mm down from 36 spike for second leg is open. second leg slightly parabolic, two legs down to bottom of TR. bears need strong BO below open / LOD with FT before AIS.
43 reached mm and found some buyers (tails 42/43). large high 2 but weak signal bar and 4/5 bear bars so BTW for second entry.
44 huge bull BO, bulls came out of no where, filled overnight gap. reached mm up based on opening range. poss spike and bull channel and mm up based on 44.
45 bears attempt to form BCX and reversal but bulls bought pullback (tail).
46 BOPB high 1 buy setup but poss top of larger range. ok swing for mm up, but SSW.
47 disappointed 44 BTC bulls scaling in, most exiting BE on 47 close.
48 outside bull bar after two legs back (45,47). poss start of bull channel. bears will try to turn 45-48 into final flag reversal.
49 bulls and bears alternating control (no 2 cc bars). 2BR for final flag reversal and low 2. but 48 likely restarted count and into bull TL copied from 44-48. ok swing short but SSW.
51 good bear EB and FT bar. but still within small sideways range (bull flag). LOM. bulls want to form spike and bull channel. bears want reversal and top of range / prices to remain within yesterdays range.
52 buy setup for failed low 2 but middle of small range so 50/50 %.
56 high 2 buy setup / failed low 2 off bull TL. 48 BTC bulls scaling in for test of close.
58 bears attempt at failed high 2, weak. instead BOPBL.
59 bull BO, 48 BTC bulls held, almost reaching SP. SOS. but prob limited by bull TC. poss MG or EG.
60 sell setup for BCX off bull TC. prob lead to 2 legs down / test of bull TL, but reversal unlikely.
65 ii bear setup for second entry short after BCX and small second BCX (63) which was also a failed BO of bull TC. reasonable scalp short but have to be able to flip mindset back to long.
69 first touch of EMA in 20 bars, likely buyers. small SCX to bull TL. but small bear mc down from 65 so btw for BOPBL.
72 first close below EMA, first break of bull channel. but still tight bear MC.
77 2BR for test of converging triangle (58). EMA gap bar, but no break of bear MC and weak signal bar.
86 trending trading range day, second BCX, 44 mm tgt not far above. 85 tested top of lower range but may be tested again since TTRD.
87 sell setup for CC BCX and test of bull high after TL break. but signal bar relatively weak. ok swing short.
Today was a trending trading range day, although it was not clearly evident until the afternoon. The day began as a small range day before forming a spike and channel bull trend, which in turn led to a trending trading range day. It is unlikely the bears break back into and test the bottom TR, but may test near the bottom of the upper range. If the day closes on its high it will also become a bull reversal day on the daily chart.
Best Trades
19 failed low 2, failed BO below bull flag and high 2. the best entry was buying below the 17 weak short signal bar, but buying above 19 was also acceptable for a scalp. however prices reached the SP for the stop entry but did not tick through. I took this trade and exited at the LO bull SP target on the third attempt, after 2 attempts to reach the tgt failed. I was then stopped out BE on my runner as the 34 bear spike.
43 large high 2, parabolic SCX down from 39. 2 legs down from 33 micro wedge top. however this signal bar was poor to say the least, and is therefore a required swing.
56 failed low 2 / failed wedge reversal, and high 2 buy setup after a strong bull spike. entering below 55 was also a good entry if filled (i tried but could not get filled), and instead entered on a stop above 56. i exited my runner at a SP below the 60 sell setup for a BCX and reversal of the bull TC, but could have held for one more push up. However this was a mathematically acceptable thing to do (exit at SP), to better my traders equation.
65 second entry short / final flag, failed bull TC BO and second (smaller) BCX. acceptable scalp for test of bull TL, but ended up going much further and testing the start of the 58 converging triangle bull BO (which is usually tested).
This is the last week of the journal challenge. I greatly appreciate anyone who gives "thanks" for my contest entry. I am currently in third so need more votes to secure a win (if you cant tell I really want to win! )
If you have not yet voted, the link is below.
Thanks!!
Yesterdays strong rally up from the double bottom led to a spike and bull channel on the 60 min chart. The bears are trying to form a trading range around yesterdays high, but after the CC SCX's on the 60 min chart prices will likely make a mm up based on the most previous climax (and bull spike). There are also several bear gaps just above the bulls want to fill, including the gap down open from tuesday.
18 tight bull channel within larger bull channel from yest, working from TL to TC. bulls buying below bars and bear closes. bears selling above highs, scaling in higher. AIL.
19 bears trying to hold yest high as high of TR. but no bear SP yet so unlikely. larger bull TC not far above, and first mm tgt from yest big bull bar, both magnets.
21 reached first mm tgt and bull TC, overshot tighter bull TC. somewhat parabolic and climactic (biggest bull bar in bull channel), and third push up (7,16,21).
22 bears sold 21 close / scaling in for retest of yest high. weak high 1 into two TC lines and after a failed bull BO / BCX, if prices tick above likely to find sellers.
25 high 2 buy setup but middle of bull channel and into high of larger channel, therefore required swing. some bears exited breakeven after scaling in higher from selling yest high.
28 first close below bull TL, 16 closed at EMA, so likely to get close below. almost reached LO bear scalp 1 pip shy of SP. bull trend weakening.
29 first close below EMA, bears reached SP. transition to TR or reversal and test of larger bull TL prob soon.
30 small sell vacuum to 21 scale in bull price (11 pips down from 21). bulls want retest of 21 close. bears want MTR, 2 legs down and test of open (start of tight bull channel). both sides have switched to scalping, so sideways likely.
31 first break of bear MC (bull flag), still AIL for retest of high. but BSP, and bears able to make SP. bulls will prob exit BE on first entry around 21 instead of holding for original SP.
34 21 bulls exiting BE on 1st entry. bears attempt at double top MTR, but 3 decent bull bars and weak SB, BTW for second entry / BSP.
35 BO to new high found sellers / bull profit taking. second attempt to break above HTF bull TC. poss reversal soon.
37 BSP, bears sold high, bulls took profits. bulls switched to scalping / waiting for 2 leg correction / test of HTF bull TL before buying again. poss AIS soon, but need BO below 31 with FT. for now TR.
41 bulls attempt at a failed low 2. but weak high 2 into top of TR, prob bull trap and SA.
42 ii bull setup, stronger bull SB for high 2. but still weak context. 21-42 TR potential FF reversal if prices break above and fail. NA at 11, may go sideways and remain in BOM until then.
43 iii swing buy setup (micro converging triangle), BOM. third attempt to break above HOD.
46 bulls got BO above TR, two legged retest of bull high. poss wedge top (21,35,46) and final flag reversal.
48 BCX, bull TC overshoot. bull BO, MG, and EG within bull leg. closed right at mm based on 46 MG. NA close of bar. larger mm tgt not far above.
49 2BR for BCX, failed BO of bull TC and FF reversal. reasonable swing short for 2 legs down. stop entry is below 49 tail (not 48). bears have potential to flip to AIS.
50 weak high 1 after BCX and failed bull TC overshoot, and second entry for 49. ok swing.
52 good bear EB and FT bar. bulls want to form BOPBL at top of TR, weak. first bear tgt is below 41 BCX / BO of converging triangle, next is mm down.
53 bear FT, AIS.
56 MDB, EMA gap bar. middle of TR, 50/50%. bears likely to get second leg down / test of HTF bull TL.
59 weak high 1 into top of TR.
71 sell vacuum test of large bull TL. but mm tgts below, may continue lower. NA close of bar.
Today is a large trading range day (so far, ending early). The morning began in a tight bull channel. After several failed attempts to break above the bull TC and reach the mm based on yesterdays spike, prices formed a wedge top BCX and reversal down for two legs, where prices reversed off the HTF bull TL.
Best Trades
22 weak high 1 into bull TC after three pushes up and minor BCX. Acceptable scalp, I however exited my full position 3 pips early when prices reversed off the bull TL.
50 second entry for BCX and reversal, required swing for 2 legs down. I tried to get filled above the 49 weak high 1 for a scalp, but was not fast enough, so missed this entry.
59 weak high 1 into high of TR and top of bear flag (second leg down was likely). acceptable scalp to enter with LO above 59, or with a stop below 63 (close of 64 prob better since bull bar). any three acceptable scalp. i exited my scalp portion a little too early below the weak low 1. however i held my runner for a swing profit (test of HTF bull TL).
73 swing buy for sell vacuum (SCX) test of bull TL, required swing.
This is the last week of the journal challenge. I greatly appreciate anyone who gives "thanks" for my contest entry. I am currently in third so need more votes to secure a win (if you cant tell I really want to win! Wink )
If you have not yet voted, the link is below.
Thanks!!
another chapter from my book. sorry in advance to those who it offends, but this is the reality.
Indicators
There are hundreds, if not thousands of indicators and sales representatives to sell indicators in the market today. They often present the indicator as a "holy grail" and will guarantee you money! Experience tells us this cannot be; there is no holy grail in trading or any other form to make money in any business. If there were and it truly worked, it would only be a matter of time before the institution taking the other side of the trade would stop taking the trade and the indicator would cease to work. There cannot, is not, and will never be a high probability situation with a high reward and low risk. Remember, there has to be an institution on both sides of the trade, and both are trading based on mathematically sound models. This will be explained more in the section on the trader’s equation.
There are many different types of indicators based on any conceivable idea which is applied to the markets. These range from Gann lines, Fibonacci levels, and even astrology. Yes, there are people who trade the markets based on the planetary alignments as if somehow they control the direction of the market. This is all nonsense and absurd to say the least.
As for Fibonacci levels, many people believe buying a 50 or 61.8% retracement works due to it being a Fibonacci retracement. While buying a pullback to these levels are sometimes profitable, it is not due to Fibonacci. It is due to a strong and positive trader’s equation. Not to mention every price on a chart is a Fibonacci extension or retracement of some other price. The institutions may buy a 50% pullback because it offers them a good risk to reward ratio, with an acceptable probability. For example, if the market makes one leg in a direction, say a 100 pip spike in the EURUSD. It then pulls back 50 pips, the institutions buy because their risk is to the bottom of the spike (50 pips), and their target is the top of the spike so 50 pips, and they also stand a reasonable chance the market makes a measured move of based on the initial 100 pip spike. So they are now risking 50 pips to make a minimum target of 50 pips, potentially 100 pips based on the measured move, with a 50-60% probability of this happening as the market often forms two legs. So instead of blinding buying a 50 or 61.8% retracement, simply wait for the setup which will develop if the institutions believe it is a logical thing to do, and then enter. All of this and more will be explained in more detail throughout this book, but the point is to avoid all indicators, as price will reflect the direction of the market.
The only indicator a price action trader needs it a 20 bar exponential moving average (EMA). All other indicators are a distraction and are not worth paying attention to. A price action trader does not need an indicator to tell them when to enter the market; they see the setup through price. As for the EMA, there is no secret. It simply provides an average price of the past 20 bars and is a form of support or resistance depending on which side the market is on. It can also help identify trading ranges (if the moving average is flat, prices are likely in a trading range). How to use the EMA and the EMA sequence will be explained in more detail in the market cycle section.
This is the last week of the journal challenge. I greatly appreciate anyone who gives "thanks" for my contest entry. I am currently in third so need more votes to secure a win (if you cant tell I really want to win! )
If you have not yet voted, the link is below.
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