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I bought Corn at 319 last Wednesday. Looks like 316 would have been a little better.
If it keeps pulling back, I will buy another contract at 314 to average down. So Lets hope your right!
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Ethanol demand is down and plantings this year look to be up quite a bit, but speculators have accumulated a near record net short position, and the last time they got this short, about a year ago, their covering bid rallied corn from 350 to 450 in a matter of weeks. Indeed corn has shown several great opportunities to fade the specs over the past few years. Virtually every major high or low in spec positioning has coincided with a tradable high or low in prices. Will this time be different?
As noted already it's this big spec short position that piqued my interest, and corn has been able to carve out a modest series of higher highs and higher lows this month, probably frustrating a few of the late entrants to this short trade, but I still haven't gotten on board. The price action looks somewhat like a bear-flag on the daily and I'd like to see one last puke below 300 and some kind of a good reversal off the lows before I'd feel comfortable starting a position.
You guys must have fairly long holds, and there is only 20 trading days left in the July Contract?
For me the July contract has given out 11 decent trades since Beginning of April, with an average 3 day hold. With such low volatility in corn, seems like such a waste to wait for a bigger move? JMHO.
I intend to buy the December futures. The reason is that - according to MRCI data - the seasonal charts for the CN-CU and CU-CZ spreads are bearish for the next couple of weeks, whereas the seasonal charts for the outright futures are bullish. The weather issues that might come up during the next couple of weeks are concerning for the new corp.
Corn is at 329 and I ended up not having to average down. You longer term guys have an opinion of where it may be wanting to go? My strategy doesn't have me holding, but it exploded and I decided to take off the filters. Got some time here to make a choice! So any opinions?
In my opinion, there is not much downside potential for the next couple of weeks because of the weather risk (pollination period gets closer) and bullish COT data.
How far will the corn price move upwards ? This depends on weather in July, and I am unable to make a prediction in this regard.
Thanks @myrrdin ...always nice to get some other perspectives. I went ahead and got out near 328 and that was well ahead of my strategy, so win win. I will wait for the next one.
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No opinion, just passing along information. Gather the COT report released Friday found large hedge Funds increasing their position on corn. The Funds added 28,824 short positions for the week ending May 26, growing their position as a net seller of corn to 214,575 contracts.
